moonslav59

I doubt he'd even make us a top 4 contender.

Even if Ohtani agreed to extend at a somewhat reasonable rate, he's barely worth any of these broken down deals, too.

Being on the 60 day IL makes that not matter, so much, but yes. Neither did anything or will do anything. Mills might, going forward.

CBS has these possible earliest ETAs on our injured players: 7/14 Pablo Reyes (may be DFA'd or traded) & R Bleier (might be helpful) 7/17 C Kluber (whoop-dee-freakin'- doo!) 7/18 G Whitlock (I hope so!) 7/21 J Schreiber (has been rehabbing) & R McGuire (bye bye Alfaro?) 7/22 K Ort (see Kluber comment) 8/1 (Trade Deadline) T Houck (We need him back) 8/1 T Story (may DH for a while, first) 8/2 C Sale (not counting on this.) 9/1 R Mondesi (unreal timing) 9/8 Z Kelly (probably too little, too late) 2024 W Mills Man, that's a lot of players!

Breakdown of 11-20 by SPs: http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/07/draft-day-3-recap-rounds-11-20.html

Not more than Bogey, IMO.

I would not do that deal, even if he extended with us. Just sign the guy as a FA and keep all you listed, if you want him so badly.

They know what they are doing.

These trades were accepted on BTV. (I'm not saying I'd do all of them.) Romero, Wink & Walter for Montgomery & DeJong Romero & Yorke for Montgomery, De Jong & Andre Pallante Romero, Walter, Murphy & Bonaci for Tim Anderson and Lucas Giolito Duvall & Chang for Brandon Crawford & $4M

Write up on the signing period: http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/07/2023signingperiod.html I wasn't aware that not signing a player in rounds 1-10 means you lose that slot money, too.

I guess “a lot” is subjective. I ‘m not talking Luis Castillo haul but maybe a top 50 prospect or two 51-100’s.

We could have gotten a lot for Bogey. If we could get McGuire for Diekman, I know we could do better with Strahm. Yes, Nate and Wacha were hurt, but teams would have given us something useful for them and Hill. JD was a hard one to figure returns. We did not have to trade for 40 man roster or Rule 5 guys. I'm just saying, they were worth more than this year's group of candidates. The two year guys like Jansen and Martin should bring back good returns. Turner's option might hurt his returns. I'm not saying trade em all, if we suck at the deadline, but the idea does have some merit.

I do think we could have gotten more for Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill and Strahm than we could get, this year, but adding the 2 year guys would help us get a nicer haul. In theory, we replace them, in kind, next winter, through free agency. Again, I'm not for selling, as of July 11th. Ask me on July 31st.

I don’t think the upper brass thinks we are one or two solid pitchers away from a ring, so I doubt we trade a top 5 prospect. I’m not sure we even trade a 6-12 one, either. I doubt we sell unless we suck the next 3 weeks. If we do, I think we’ll trade Duvall, Paxton and Kike and consider two year older guys like Jansen, Martin and Turner.

We really need to trade for a SPer now. We might get 3 pitchers back at the deadline. Who carries toAugust 1st?

Most players are greatly helped by their best 9 games.

Good point. I'd think Mata, Walter or Murphy might be, too. We might be able to use some cleared up roster spaces for returning IL players and for Rule 5, this winter. Dalbec can be a throw-in, but I'm not sure he'd help much and might be worth holding onto, instead.

Kike looked like a really good signing after 2021. His injury was the excuse for 2022, but he has been up and down over his whole career, offensively. Many are turned off by the .238 career BA and .311 OBP, but he has decent power and gap power. A .409 SLG is pretty good for a 2Bman or CF'er. He's been a plus defender at multiple positions for many years. What GM does not like that? He wasn't meant to be a FT SS, but he had done pretty well there, in scattered playing time, up until this year. When we signed him he had a .244 BA and .749 OPS in his previous 3 season ('18-'20.) He had a very solid second half to 2021 and a great playoffs, and for those who believe in clutch hitters, he was one with LAD, before- several times. The extension, last summer, was criticized by some, but mostly for being too high in price, not so much about not wanting him. There was one poster who swears he does not hate anybody, who was very strongly against the $10M deal. Had he not played SS, this year, I doubt there would be much complaining about him. Had he hit better, maybe it would not be so bad, but he's done nothing for us, this year. With the way Duran is playing in CF, and Duvall and Refsnyder on the roster, his only place to play is 2B. It's not like Arroyo is doing all that great, so maybe he can turn things around at 2B over the last 3 months of 2023. I'm not predicting it, but it is possible. He's worth nothing in trade- maybe a little, if we pay the full boat.

If we are still in it, I hope we are buyers, without parting with any top 5 prospects. I could see trading Duvall and maybe try to guess right on trading while the stock is high on someone like Crawford or Wink, but only if we somehow get a solid SP'er. I hated what we did, last year. (I hated the deals made in 2012, too, but that ended up working out.) Playing it halfway is almost always a losing strategy.

Very well said. I will add that the percentage of pitchers taken high in the draft has fallen below 30%, recently. I guess it depends on what is meant by high, but... Drafts: 2020: 0 of top 3 rounds (2 of 5) we lost the 2nd pick 2021: 0 of 3 (1 of 5) 2022: 0 of 3 (1 of 5) 2023: 0 of 3 (1 of 5) 4 year totals: 0 of 11 players taken in rounds 1-3 5 of 19 players taken rounds 1-5 (all 4th or 5th rounders) Top IFA bonuses given: 1.5 OF Bleis 1.4 SS Cespedes 1.2 SS De Leon 1.1 SS Encarnacion .85 C Jog Garcia .85 C Lira .60 SS Santana .55 SS Ravelo .53 SS Arias .50 SS Ruiz .45 P Paez .45 2B Liendo .40 CF Yuten .40 OF Paniagua .30 P Mejias Zero out of 10 players given $500K+ bonuses were a pitcher 2 out of 15 given $300K + were pitchers. I'm not complaining, but the percentages have shifted greatly towards non pitchers.

I think the whole Cora-Bloom-Kike love triangle is non existent.

BTV's dollar values: 65 Mayer 42 Duran 34 Bello 32 Whitlock 28 Casas 27 Dugo 25 Rafaela 24 Bleis 22 Yoshida 20 Crawford 19 Houck & Yorke 13 Devers 11 Anthony 10 Schreiber 9 Romero 8 Wink 7 Alcantara 6 Paxton 5 Bonaci, Meidroth, Paulino, Walter 4 Bastardo, Jordan, Hickey, Wong, Drohan, Mata, Ref, EValdez 3 Bernardino, Blalock, E R-C, Murphy, Abreu Some other team's player's values: A's 15 Sears, 11 Moll, 8 Waldichuk, 6 Blackburn Royals 2B 91 Witt, 20 Singer, 17 Hernandez, 10 Lynch, 9 Barlow Rockies 18 Lawrence Nats 30 Gray, 28 Gore, SS 23 Abrams, 8 Harvey Cards 2B 20 Edman, 16 Liberatore, 15 Hesley, 14 Montgomery, 6 Pallante, SS 5 DeJong Would anyone trade Rafaela for Montgomery, Pallante and DeJong? How about Romero & Yorke? BTV accepted both.

There have not been many solid SP'er trades at the deadline, recently. I would guess we would not trade any of these guys for just a rental" 1. Mayer 2. Bleis 3. Rafaela 4. Anthony 5. Yorke 6. Drohan I'm not sure about... 7. Perales 8. Romero 9. Wikelman I think these guys might be offered (maybe even 2) 10. EValdez 11. Walter 12. Bonaci 13. Murphy (14. Meidroth & 16. Joh Garcia, I'd like to keep.) 15. Jordan 17. Paulino 18. Mata (I like E R-C and Abreu, too.) 21. Hickey 22. D Ham Throw-ins: (Dalbec) 34. Kavadas 35. Lugo 38. Scott 39. Sikes 43. Koss 47. Jacques and others

True. I mentioned the extension part as an idea. Guys with 1.3 years left are more likely- like Montas, last year. (I hope we do better than that!)

Back to the 2023 Red Sox... To me, the results of this season will once again, come down to returning pitchers and how well they do, when they return. The return of Story is also important, but the rotation injury returns are the key. Story should help the offense, as Chang is hitting .499. His defense should also be a plus. Adding Schreiber back to the pen should be a big plus. (He is rehabbing now in AAA.) Now, to the rotation. We all would prefer some or all of these 3 to be in the pen: Whitlock, Houck, Pivetta and Crawford. The problem is, we need 3 starts to add to the 2 man rotation we have right now: Bello & Paxton. I'm done counting on Sale to return, but if he does, I feel better about his chances at being successful. We need to plan on him not coming back, and if he does, we'll get a nice boost to the pen by moving one of our starters to long relief. I'm not counting Kluber as an option, and I hope Bloom & Cora aren't either. 3 slots and 4 pitchers... Whitlock's return is sketchy. He has been inconsistent, when he has pitched. The guy has some nasty stuff and has proven he can get guys out, but he'll need to start showing he can, again. Houck's return is more certain, but there is talk of his role being in relief. I'm not sure we can do that, unless we trade for a SP'er. Crawford seems like long relief is his strength, as with Houck, Whitlock and Pivetta, too, but he might have to stay as a SP'er, unless we add 2. Pivetta seems like the logical choice to return to the rotation, but it seems the top brass is set on keeping him in the pen. He's doing great, there, so who am I to think I know better? Murphy and Walter may very well be flashes in the pan, but one may end up helping- just not as a SP'er, IMO. I'm not sure we can continue this "opener" idea much longer and count on making the playoffs. IMO, we need to trade for a solid SP'er. Solid ones do not come cheap. I'm not for trading top young talent for a rental, and I doubt Bloom is thinking that way, either. The most he's ever given up was Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber. That could change this year, and he may be told to do it. One option might be to trade for a salary dump pitcher who is still pretty good. It's hard to know how much we can pay without going over the tax line. That number varies from site to site, but it is probably between $5-9M. Since deadline trades will involve just paying 2 months salary, we can probably afford a pitcher in the $15-$25M pay range, assuming we only add one salary booster. We could also trade someone like Duvall and add $2.5M to the till. I'd prefer we add a solid pitcher with longer team control, or one who agrees to an extension, but they will cost way more in prospects. Personally, I think we are at the time to make a big push for top contention. If not at this deadline, then this winter, for sure. I'm not sure the Sox see it this way, but adding a long term pitcher, at the deadline, makes a lot of sense, even if we dip into the top prospect pool. I guess this can be discussed on the trade deadline thread.