moonslav59

It seems when teams are in bargain hunter mode, they end up settling on these types of contracts more often than not. One could probably make a strong case that even the "healthy" large and long contracts have not fared too well, either.

Indeed. I'm not trying to sugar coat the Story signing. My point was only that the amount we signed him for was less than he probably would have gotten as the injury risk was factored in. I like to think of it this way, but nobody else has to: he was probably worth close to $140M/5 had there been no hint of the elbow injury. If he missed a year, paying him $140M/6 pretty much cover the missed year. I'm not saying a healthy Story was worth $140M/5, but I do think a healthy Story was worth more than $140M/6. Yes, I suggested we sign Baez, Suzuki among others. At least Baez is still healthy. Suzuki may still earn his pay. Here is how the FA SS signings did last winter: $32.5M x 10 Seager (.772 OPS) 4.5 fWAR $25.0M x 7 Semien (.733 OPS) 4.2 fWAR at 2B $23.3M x 6 Story (.737 OPS) 2.3 fWAR at 2B $23.3M x 6 Baez (.671 OPS) 2.0 fWAR $35M x 1 Correa (.834 OPS) 4.4 fWAR

I get that, but I do feel better knowing we got more well-regarded IFSs than most other teams. We've done pretty well, recently, after dipping a little bit and suffering through the penalties we incurred under Ben's regime. 2004: Doubront 2005: Y Navarro 2006: Dice-K, Okajima 2007: Roman Mendez 2008: Tazawa, W Cuevas 2009: Bogaerts, Montas, Iggy 2010: J Aro 2011: Margot, T-W Lin 2012: Basabe, J Guerra, G Bautista 2013: Devers, DHern 2014: Moncada, Espinoza, R Castillo, Ed Bazardo 2015: B Mata 2016: H Velazquez (Penalty Phase) 2017: Bello, Rafaela, E Quiroz, G Jimenez 2018: Wikelman, Paulino, Bonaci, J Encarnacion, A Bastardo, M Mejicano 2019: L Perales, J Salazar, J Garcia, J Chacon 2021: Bleis, J Paez, L Ravelo, Sawamura, E Polanco, A Mejias 2022: F De Leon, F Encarnacion, J Garcia

Even if he came back and looked great in September, I doubt he'd get $94M/4 on the open market, next winter. My point was about what healthy Story would have gotten, last winter and this winter, and that the higher than norm injury risk lessened what he would have gotten..

I would not bet on Story earning the contract in his last 4 years. I'm doubtful he even earns 4/6th of the $140 over the last 4 years ($94M/4.) Our best hope is probably he can come close to earning $90M/4.

Yes, that is basically what I said. BTW, yes, he did get what others got, last year. He got exactly what Baez got. My point was, I think he'd gotten more had there been no health concerns. Do you disagree? I guess how much more might be up for a wide open debate.

I think RHern has way better offensive potential. If he's as bad on D as you think he is, then I stand corrected.

In today’s market, a healthy Story would likely get $140M/5. That’s not to say he’s worth what he got.

Is he better than the top 2-3 we had signed before him?

There was a good reason to be in that mode starting in 2019, but I had hopes we'd be moving more towards "quality" by now. On the FA front, there is a moving trends towards quality, if size of contracts are a sign. FA signings: 2019: 68/4 Nate 6.25 Pearce 2020: (2 contracts at $10M or more, but none from Bloom.) 145/5 Sale (signed in 2019- preBloom) 60/3 Bogey (signed in 2019- preBloom) 6.5 Perez 4.2 Pillar 2.9 Peraza 1.5 Lucroy 850K Osich 2021 (2 contracts at barely $10M) 14/2 Kike 10 Richards (9 Ottavino via trade) 5.0 Perez 3.1 Renfroe 3.0 Marwin 3/2 Sawamura 2.1 Andreise 1.0 Santana 870K Brice 2022 (2 contracts at more than $10M) 140/6 Story 19/2 Barnes (extended) 8/2 Diekman (traded away) 7.0 Wacha 6.0 Paxton 5.0 Hill 3.0 Strahm 2.3 Robles 2023 (6 contracts at more than $10M) 90/5 Yoshida (+15 posting fee) 32/2 Jansen 22/2 Turner 18/2 Martin 10.0 Kike (signed in 2021) 10.0 Kluber (w 11 option for '24) 2.0 J Rodriguez

I actually posted Hamilton is listed as the 3rd catcher. Was that "wrong?" I think RHern will get the first call, if needed, and he does not have to be mashing to get it. It's just my opinion. I think RHern is going to have a good season.

The Red Sox, who have a base signing pool of $4,644,000, have not confirmed the agreement. The deal is pending a physical. It’s worth noting that the Red Sox forfeited $500,000 from their pools for signing Trevor Story, who rejected a qualifying offer during the 2021-22 offseason. I provided the link in my post: Red Sox 2023 international prospects signings WWW.MLB.COM The Red Sox are in the process of adding an international prospect that has been compared to a young Howie Kendrick. According to industry sources, the club has agreed to a deal with Dominican shortstop Yoeilin Cespedes, who is the No. 25-ranked prospect on the Top 50 International Prospects list.

My post was more directed to MVP. I think RHern has at least an equal chance at being the 3rd catcher added to the 40 as anyone else. I don't think he needs to be "mashing" to get the first chance. I think he is currently 3rd on the depth chart, although SP's has him 4th- behind Hamitlon.

We also lost $500K in IFA bonus pool money by signing Story, last spring.

I said this, last year, before we added Pham. I said that, this winter, before we added Yoshida. Right now, Yoshida, Dugo and Duran are all best suited for LF (or the bench in Duran's case.) Refsnyder is okay in RF, but he's probably best utilized as a LF'er, too. Kike is the only OF'er we have that looks best in CF, and now we are talking about playing him at middle IF'er, and you guessed it, adding another LF'er! WTF!

Well, we did play 54 players in the bigs, last year. the 60 day IL players allow for additions, but others will come and go. It would take a serious catcher injury or cliff dive for RHern to be added to the 40, but stranger things have happened. We have 2 catchers on the 40. Tell me you really think no other catcher will play on the big club, this season but those two.

I'm trying to stay optimistic, and my biggest reason to be bright is that we really don't need "everything to go right" to show significant improvement and contend for a playoff slot. We might need closer to "everything" to advance farther than making the playoffs, but to me we have a lot to be hopeful about. Despite knowing some of these "what ifs" will surely not materialize many listed below seem more likely than not likely. What if... Sale and or Paxton can return to near top form and give us 33-40+ starts, combined. Bello does not need to "improve upon Sept '22," he can actually do worse and still be a huge addition. He had a 2.59 ERA and 2.70 FIP. Whitlock thrives by not being jerked around all year. Kluber just stays healthy and pitches like the 2021-2022 Kluber. Not a lot to ask. Pivetta just stays Pivetta. Houck is given one slot and kept there- most likely high leverage set-up than may include 2-3 IP in some outings. Jansen, one of MLB's most consistent closers for 12 straight seasons (his FIP going over 3.48 just once in his whole career- back in 2018) just gives us another Jansen season. Last 3 seasons have been amazingly similar: 2.86 ERA/ 3.12 FIP. Schreiber just gives us 75% of the 2022 Schreiber. Martin, Joely Rodriguez and Mills do better than Diekman, Davis, Sawamura, Danish & Co. Barnes or Taylor return to near past form. Just one. Just one, maybe 2, if we see a lot of pitching injuries, from Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Murphy, Kelly, German, Ort and last an likely least, Brasier. Just one or two. McGuire hits near .690 and handles the staff well. Wong does not embarrass himself as the back-up catcher. Casas plays solid D and gives us something better than .240 25 80 (OBP over .320.) Turner backs him up well. Devers might have a bust out season, as he finally reached prime, but we only need him to give us his last 4 season numbers per 162: .292 34 114 (.894 OPS). This is really not expecting more than a player's normal age progression chart would project. Yoshida is the hardest to project or to get a firm grip on what we can realistically expect or hope for. I'm thinking: Low end .280 10 75 (.780 OPS) Middle .290 15 85 (.825 OPS) High end .300 20 100 (.875 OPS) Kike is another tough one to project. How about just to stay healthy and give us numbers between 2021 and 2022. here is his 162 gm avg from '21-'22: .238 19 75 (94 runs and .320 OBP) .721 OPS. I'm hoping for better, but we should only need this. Dugo's age progression chart is out of whack. He peaked at age 24 (2020): OPS+ 93>113>123>107>102. I don't think it's unrealistic to expect him to stop the slide and to just give us his last 4 seasons' average at age 27. 162 game avg '19-'22: .289 15 69 (86 runs and .343 OBP) .778 OPS. Turner is aging and could drop off like a cliff, but his second half to 2022 was a great sign he is far from "done." He hit .968 in his final 246 PAs or 2022. His 162 gam clip would have been .349 25 118! He hit .986 over his last 140 PAs. OPS+ trend 151>130>133>120>116. If he can give us 112-120, it would help, a lot. The two unknown slots are the two Kike is not going to play: SS, 2B or CF. Right now, I see little hope in anyone on our current roster stepping up and filling in a role at even replacement player level. I think we add two more players, so the specific "hopes" are unknown, as of now. There is a slight chance Arroyo could stay healthy for one full season. I'm not expecting or projecting that to happen, but the possibility is there. His 2021-2022 numbers combined would be an awesome addition to the 2023 team: 481 PAs .277 12 61 (.749 OPS and 102 OPS+) Refsnyder's 2022 season looks like a fluke, but he could possibly give us his 2021-2022 avg season in 2023: 334 PAs .277 BA/ .778 OPS & 116 OPS+. I have very little hope in Duran, but I guess miracles can happen. Dalbec has shown he can hit very well in long stretches, but can also look god-awful in equally long stretches. He does offer a glimmer of hope, but we might not need it at 1B/DH/3B. All-in-all, we have a lot of storylines that offer some degree of hope. Some, like Sale and Paxton seem like pipedreams. but many seem more likely to happen than not happen.

Unless he gets hurt, Mata is going to pitch in the bigs, this season. We will also see Kelly, who pitched some in '22 and maybe Ro. Hern & Hamilton.

We have enough money to fill 2 of the 3 slots (the 2 Kike is not playing.) If we don't fill both through free agency, we can find one via trade without losing a key prospect. I am certain we get 2. I think the chance we add 3 is greater than the chan ce at adding just 1. Andrus & Michael A Taylor. Andrus & Wendle. Andrus, Wendle & Taylor.

Yes, and the point being, while Story was helped more by his home numbers than Bogey, and although Bogey was helped by home numbers, too, both were about the same hitters on the road. Before the elbow injury, Story was considered a much better defender. I'm not trying to ignore the injury, but it seems that without it, Story would have gotten much more money than $140M/6.

btv?

Profar seems like he's best suited for LF. I don't get our attraction to LF'ers.

I don't think they want to rush Rafaela, but he's already 100 times the defender Duran can ever be.

MLBTR reports... The Red Sox reportedly made a last-ditch effort to sign Bogaerts in the hours preceding his deal with San Diego, though Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom later downplayed the chances that a reunion between Bogaerts and the Red Sox was becoming a possibility. There were mixed signals from Boston’s ownership and front office all season long about the franchise’s willingness to retain Bogaerts, and from Boras’ perspective, the Red Sox weren’t ever a major bidder. “It was just really clear to us there was a separation where Boston was going to go for Bogaerts, compared to where the market was,” Boras said. “They probably made a decision they were going to sign [Rafael] Devers, and were going to pay only one of them. So we knew at the forefront that Bogey would be somewhere besides Boston.”

Good one. It's almost always about the money. Let's see about the contender thing, later this year.