moonslav59

It does seem easier to find a good RHB for RF than 2B. I tried to avoid that part of the equation by wording my question the way I did, but that is a reality. Garver could be an option for that RHB, which would mean we could focus on pitching only, and roll the dice at 2B and OF with what we have (or swap Duvall for Dugo and double up on improving our RHBs.)

Forget about what FAs and trade targets are available, which position do you think is a higher need? 2B (back up SS/3B): Urias, Reyes, DHam (AAA) CF/RF: Dugo, Rafaela, Abreu (Rosier AAA) + Duran or Refsnyder, when not playing LF. I see reasons for picking either one.

I'd do that, easily. Kirby has 5 years of control. I doubt SEA does it, even if we add Yorke.

No surprise.

It probably won't be a factor, unless they think Teel might be ML ready to start 2025, but even then, maybe not.

Yoshida will DH, and we may very well start Rafaela or Abreu in AAA. It doesn't mean we don't have 6 OF'ers who can play OF. I get it. I'd prefer quality to quantity, too. I'm not saying OF is all set. I'm saying other areas are higher need areas with less depth.

I agree. I doubt we spend even just to below the second line, which is $70M, and that might not be enough to fill the 6-7 highest needs. More likely 4-5. To win in 2024, I feel we need one major prospect trade plus $50-70M spent. If we do that, a Dugo-Duvall swap out won't matter all that much, unless Duvall sucks or get hurt, all year.

All true and possible, but on paper, the pen I listed looks better than any one I've seen on the Sox in over 50 years of following them. All pitchers have questions and concerns. All the 4 long relief guys I listed have way better stats as RP'ers than SP'ers. Our short guys may not match up to some from other past Sox teams, especially at closer, but even the short guys look 4 strong. We even have some decent depth with Bernardino, Kelly and others. That's a huge plus over last year's pen depth, once so many pen guys were forced to start. (Not to mention way too many pen games.)

No, it's not. We don't know what the winter budget is, or if any major trades of prospects will be made. If the budget is $50M and no big prospect trades are made, which is a likely scenario, I don't see how we add two top SP'ers and also quality upgrades, elsewhere. We need a RHB. No other position, except RF offers the opportunity to not add to the budget and fill a RHB need. (Swap Duvall for Dugo.) And, this doesn't even factor in what we get for Dugo!

That's a big plus, and also a major part of his decent fWAR numbers over recent years. He's pretty steady on O, too, but to me, he's barely above mediocre on O. He looked good on D, in 2023, but he was never impressive, before, so I'm not so sure he repeats 2023 in 2024 on D. There is no reason to think he won't, but he may not. Here are two reasons why trading him makes sense. 1. We need better hitters vs LHPs, and one could argue Dugo should be platooned. career OPS: .807 v R .665 v L 2023 .793 v R .609 v L 2. He had several instances of attitude issues with very little evidence that he learned anything from them. Who knows? Maybe he has a bust out year in his "contract year," and I'll be wrong, once again, but to me, swapping Duvall for Dugo, so we can have more resources for other positional upgrades makes the most sense.

Adding 2 top SP'ers would do wonders for the whole staff- from top to bottom, especially if both give us 175+ IP in 2024. IMO, adding 3 solid SP'er who all give us 170+ IP would make our pen one of, if not the best pen the Sox have ever had. It could also be a revolutionary one, in regards to having 4 major long relief arms (Houck, Crawford, Whitlock & Pivetta) capable of being excellent in that role. It's no sure bet all 4 will be, but even if 3 are, the pen would be great. SP1 ____ SP2 ____ SP3 Bello SP4 ____ SP5 Sale (or Pivetta) Long Relief Houck Crawford Whitlock Pivetta or Murphy Short relief Jansen Martin Winckowski Schreiber/Bernardino Maybe, I'm a homer, but this looks fantastic, to me.

I get it, and agree. I'm tired of quantity over quality. It had its place during the rebuild, but now is the time to go quality. The issue I see, at hand, is how many quality guys can and will we add, this winter and can we spend up to the second tax line and or trade a top prospect for one big need. Until we know those answers, I'm working on the assumption that every dollar spent in one place means it's that many less spent in another place. I'm fine with anyone disagreeing with my priority rankings. If OF is a bigger need than other areas, in your opinion, fine. That position has merit, too. Our OF hit .676 in 2022. It hit .783 in 2023. We are subtracting Duvall and adding more of Rafaela, Abreu and Duran. I see 2B, with a .663 OPS in 2023 and one of the worst defenses of any position on the team as a higher need. Tell me I'm wrong, and say why. I see catcher as at worst an equal need area. They hit .673 and did not seem to do all that well on framing and blocking. They handled SBs well. I'm not sure about how well they handled the staff. I could see signing Garver as a better plan than keeping Dugo- not that the costs balance out. Most of all, I see our rotation as the clear high need area, and I'm talking 3 slots. At minimum, we need 2 top pitchers, and that could cost the full $50M we may have budgeted for this winter. If we have $70M, we have to choose how we spend it and where. RHB that fills one or two of these 3 slots: CF/RF 2B C We can't fill all three without a prospect trade or going "light" or "mediocre" at 1 or 2 of those slots. One way we might be able to do it is to add a RHB while adding $9M to the budget by swapping Duvall for Dugo. That changes the equation from $20M for 3 slots to $20M for 2 slots, with a higher risk in RF than we'd have had by keeping Dugo. Is that higher risk worth having $20M for 2 slots not 3? IMO, the quality jump from spending $10M x 2 vs $6.7M x 3 or $20M x 1 vs $10M x 2 is worth more than we might lose from a Duvall to Dugo swap. There is a chance Duvall does better than Dugo, too.

Fair answer. I think most advocating a trade of Dugo are also suggesting we add a RH'd OF'er- like Duvall. Yes, he is less reliable, but it still leaves us with 6 OF'ers. While a Duran-Refsnyder platoon in LF might not be great on D, it would be an improvement over Yoshida's LF D. I think they could combine for a zero OAA in 2024. Yoshida could play some LF in Fenway or other easier LF's, on rare occassions, and Duran could play some CF, when that happens, of vs some LHPs, but less time in CF than 2023 would b e an improvement on D in CF. Of course relying on Duvall, Rafaela, Abreu and maybe Rosier to cover almost all the CF & RF innings is a risk. I agree. My point is that relying on Sale and a bunch of long relief guys to fill 3-4 rotation slots is a much bigger risk. Urias and Reyes at 2B and back-up SS/3B is an equal risk. Wong & McGuire are, too. IMO, OF is a lesser risk with Duvall replacing Dugo and the other 5-6 guys earning the other 3-4 slots (and DH.) It's not a slam dunk choice. I respect yours and others' opinions on this. If we could afford to keep Dugo and add Duvall, while meeting the rotation needs plus an upgrade at maybe 2B OR C, I'd be 100% behind that plan. As of now, I'm not sold on a total commitment by the top brass. I'll be overjoyed, if they splurge as needed, but I'm not counting on it. I'm going on the assumption we spend $50-70M and probably don't trade a top 5 prospect. If we do more than that, we can probably go status quo on the OF, which would mean adding Duvall but also a better chance of Rafaela and/or Abreu helping AND keeping Dugo.

I don't want Bellinger at that money. My point was that trading Dugo as part of a more comprehensive plan may make sense.

We don't even know what the return is. What if it's a RH'd Dugo, exactly? We might trade Dugo to create just enough space for Bellinger. (Doubtful, but he's getting about 40% of Bellinger's estimated AAV.)

Do we have a surefire solid... 2Bman? Catcher? SP1? SP2? SP4? LH RP? My point is OF is deeper than those slots and of higher quality and upside potential. If we have enough to do it all, Damn straight: do it! I don't think the commitment is there. I want us to start with our highest need areas, first. If there is money left over, they keep the $9M Dugo.

Do you honestly think this management team is going to fill every single need we have? Where does OF fit on your needs list? Here's mine: 1. SP1 2. SP2 3. RHB (2B, C or CF/RF- not DH or LF, PLEASE!) 4. SP3/4 5. 2B, C or RF/CF (one that was not filled by #3) 6. LH RP 7. C, 2B, RF/CF (the one not filled by #3 and #5) I cannot see us adding 7 obvious upgrades, this winter. If we do, I'm with you 100%. Keep Dugo and add Duvall, a 2Bman, Garver at C and 3 SP'ers plus a lefty RP'er. Yahooooo!

Yes. SIX. Yoshida Duran Refsnyder (one of MLB's best batters vs LHP over the last 2 years) Dugo Rafaela Abreu (Rosier might make 7.)

Refsnyder will be 33 to start the 2024 season. Yoshida turns 31, next year. Duran turns 28. Verdugo turns 28 but has been in MLB for 7 years. If we replace him with 35 year old Duvall, we still have 4 veteran OF'ers on the 26 man roster. Rafaela and Abreu may not win an OF position. One could very likely start the year in AAA. Of course the OF situation has question marks and concerns, as does just about every position to some extent, except maybe the pen. I'd love to have Bellinger on the team. I'd prefer to have Dugo and Duvall on the 26 man roster. I'm just not sure we can fill the other high(er) need areas sufficiently to make it happen. I can understand anyone who prefers having Dugo over Duvall. He is more dependable, and we know he's okay on D in RF. He's younger. He also has horrible splits and has not really been a plus on D for his whole career. He's had attitude issues on a team where many posters have complained about poor leadership and chemistry. It's a gamble keeping Dugo and rolling the dice with status quo, too. (Status quo includes bringing Duvall back.) A lot depends on how much we can spend and how open Breslo is to making some bold trades. IMO, the OF is not a top 4-5 priority. A RHB is, so getting one for the OF is fine, but unless we are going for a major and costly winter, I don't see loading up the OF beyond someone like Duvall.

Sure, when Teel is ready. We could have Garver or Teel DH when not catching. I guess it depends on how many years we give Garver and when Teel is ML ready. Garver is will be 33, next year. He has never had more than 360 PAs in a ML season. That is worrisome, even for a catcher. His numbers are rather astounding, though: He's averaged 34 HRs per 650 PAs since 2021. Couple that with a .346 OBP (.370 in '23) and I'm liking him, more and more. He has a career .825 OPS (123 OPS+) and his OPS+, last year, was 134. .795 v R .885 v L His (RH'd) bat looks better than Duvall's.

You think it's more important to have 6 OF'ers than a 3rd SP or 2Bman, or even a catcher?

If we traded Dugo and signed Duvall and Duvall gets hurt, all is not lost. We'd still have 5 OF'ers with Rosier in AAA. Yoshida Refsnyder Duran Rafaela Abreu Is that great? No. Is it good? Maybe. Is it risky? Yes. Is it better than our rotation, right now? NO on SP1, NO on SP2, NO on SP4. Is it better than Urias/Reyes at 2B? I'd say close call, but yes. Is it better than Wong/McGuire at catcher? I'd say close call, and maybe no. Look, if we can spend $90M or trade Mayer for a SP'er, then spend $65-75M, fine. Keep Dugo and sign Duvall, but we need to concentrate our resources on our top 3-4, maybe 5 needs, or we will end up getting mediocrity at 6-8 slots filled.

Another reason to trade Dugo.

I'm starting to think signing Garver might be a good idea for a RHB, but with Teel in the system, I'm not sure. I guess we could trade Garver, later, if Teel is ready.

And, with Ref as a capable RHB and Yoshida as an emergency fill-in LF'er, we should have all OF positions covered, in case one guy gets hurt or sucks. (Assuming we add Duvall and trade Dugo.)