moonslav59

No doubt. He looked like DFA material, before turning it around in the pen. Some of his strong stretches: 2021: 3.77 ERA and 3.27 FIP on June 6th (11 GS) 4.20 and 4.17 on August 17th (after 23 GS) 2022: 3.62 and 3.73 during a 20 GS stretch in May to Aug. 3.85 and 4.04 over an overlapping 25 game stretch. 2023: 2.37 and 2.73 after joining the rotation in SEP (5 GS) 3.16 and 3.28 after May 17th (8 GS and 22 games in relief)

He spent a lot. $154M/7 AGon extension (3rd highest contract in Sox history) The Vic, Dempster, Napoli and S Drew group was for over $95M in 2013. $110/8 Pedey extension was a major contract. $95M/5 + $88M/4 for Pablito & HRam was a major outlay of cash. He also signed Rusney Castillo to $73M/7 in 2014. Adjust for inflation, and Ben had a longer budget leash than Bloom, but still not as much as DD, starting with the Price signing and including trades that brought in higher salaries.

He's had some very long stretches of doing very well, in each of his last 3 seasons. If he could do it for 32 GS, this year, his paycheck should be very nice on the open market, next winter. (I'd like to see us extend him.)

Agreed, the AAV on HRam + Pablito was more than Scherzer. I guess the running argument was that we were not allowed to spend large & long on 30+ SP'ers, until the precise time of the Price signing.

I'm not expecting any significant rotation additions, perhaps for years. It doesn't change the fact that this is our only options for a few years. I suppose we could hope all our tweeners turn to legit SP'ers, but that is a big hope.

I knew and said it was an overpay and for too long, but felt it was a very necessary signing. I remember saying his profile was about as good as it can be up to the signing.

Houck had a 2.0 bWAR over his first 2 seasons, combined- 86 IP (16 GS and 5 RP appearances.) Pivetta has had stretches of 20+ starts, where his numbers look better than many teams' #2 or 3 SP'er. He's had bWARs of 2.5, 2.6 and 2.4, the last 3 seasons. In theory, we could have 5 guys over 2.0: Giolito (repeat '19, '20 pro-rated, or 2021) Bello (repeat 2023) Pivetta (just repeat 2021, 2022 or 2023) Crawford (repeat 2023) Houck (repeat 2020-2021) Why does this seem so unlikely? (It does, to me.)

That was the great "what if..." I think they decided to fill the O, one year and the Pitching, the next. Price looked solid, on paper. Injury free. Work horse. Consistent top performer. I'm not sure he looked much different from Scherzer, at the times of their signings. The added bonus of signing Scherzer over Price would have likely been NOT to sign Pablito & HRam. If they spent on O, the following year, it's hard to imagine doing worse than those two.

That's the pen. We need SP'ers, badly. I like to see us get two solid innings eaters, but one would bring us much closer to having a chance at competing.

For penny pinching, yes, Dalbec gets the nod. I'd rather see others on the 26, but they will all get their looks, if they deserve it.

The grass is greener, due to warmer climate and excessive watering.

The true meaning of "Moneyball."

soxpropsects.com usually does a pretty good job, all around, but I do wonder why they have Winckowski in AAA to start the season, and Campbell on the big club. I understand the situation with Rule 5 Slaten and out of options Mata creating a roster situation, but I'd flip the two. (They have Wink starting.) They also have us acquiring another SP and a RF'er. (O'Neill in LF, Duran in CF and Yoshida at DH. They have Dalbec on the 26 with reyes, McGuire and Ref as the subs. Both rafaela and Abreu in AAA. Much can change, for sure. I can't see Dalbec on the 26. That might mean we'll have to add a RF'er who can also back-up 1B, or give someone a 1Bman's mitt and hope Casas can play nearly everyday at 1B. We have SP'er depth in our MLB pen, but avoiding their use as starters would vault our pen to top 5-8 status. In AAA, we'll have: Max Castillo, Richard Fitts, Grant Gambrell, Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy as depth. The pen depth is pretty strong, especially if 3-4 out of our swingmen (Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock) can stay in the pen. Jansen, Martin, 1-4 swingmen, Schreiber, Winckowski, Bernardino, Slaten, Mata, Campbell, Criswell, Weissert, Kelly, Guerrero and converted SP'ers in AAA. (Benitez and Olivares may climb.) Catcher depth on the farm: Roberto Perez & Stephen Scott in AAA, Teel & Hickey in AA, plus Jo Garcia and B Brannon in A+. That's solid minor league depth at a position many teams are dying in. 1B: Dalbec in AAA, along with Kavadas. Jordan in AA. 2B: E Valdez, Yorke & DHam at AAA and Paulino at AA. SS: DHam at AAA and Mayer at AA. (Romero A+, Zanetello A- and Cespedes FCL offer some very nice hopes for the future.) 3B: Meidroth at AAA and Lugo in AA. (A Anderson has promise) LF: Rosier (McDonough in AA) CF: Rafaela (Anthony in AA, Castro in A+ & Bleis in A- have a ton of promise) RF: Abreu (Yuten is far away) DH: E Valdez, Yorke, Hickey, Kavadas (K Campbell)

If we don't sign or trade for top SP'ers, it will NOT be good enough. Even if we assume, changes made have already set in motion an advance in the area of pitching prospect scouting, acquisition and development, it will be years and years before we even start seeing results at the MLB level. There has to be some sort of "bridge plan" beyond guys like Perez, Richards, Paxton, Wacha, Hill and Giolito. It's a losing formula based on long hopes of everything gelling, at once, every so often.

Maybe, someday... That is the best hope Sox fans have, right now.

One aspect of "monetball" is not moneyball.

They never really went the Rays' Way all the way. Everything they do is half-ass.

All levers seems to imply financially, too.

I'm fine with cycles that include rings. I remember thinking that 2021 might have done more harm than good to "the plan." It bought two more years of the sham.

It was not just 2021. After the great Dodger purge (CC, AGon & Beckett,) we did NOT come close to replacing their value, the following ring year- 2013. Opening Day payrolls: $168M '10 $164M '11 $175M '12 $154M '13 Yes, 2004's payroll was larger than pre-2004 and 2005-2006. Yes, 2007 was more than '08 & '09. Yes, 2018 was more than ever, but it was less than 2019, which was DD's worst year by record. 2013 and 2021 were "low points" in budgets, when compared to surrounding seasons. When you look at end of year 40 man roster budgets, one thing is common: after each ring year, the budget dropped: $130>117 "04>'05 $155>147 '07>'08 $176>168 '13>'14 $230>228 '18>'19 (It went up $30M from '21 to '22.)

Probably not, but if we can get some good value from 3-4 of the 5 you listed, plus maybe one more from the castaways, that should help an already decent pen.

It's the same ole- same ole...

The tro of Crawford, Houck and Whitlock have the skills and some history to suggest upside showings in 2024. We have a ton or young or younger arms in the pen that could grow and improve with proper guidance or a key tweak here or there. Slaten Mata Campbell Fitts (SP?) Weissert Kelly Criswell Murphy & Walter Guerrero & German Benitez & Olivares Hagenman, Hoppe & Troye

Yup. While the budget was an issue, especially in 2020, Bloom did spend a lot of money, and most of his top 10 signings were not good ones. That's on him.

Yes, that is very likely and a pretty sure bet.