Of course the value is speculative, in nature, as it was back then, too.
If these guys are all busts, we're in big trouble, for sure. If two are busts, it will be very hard for us to compete, going forward, unless other unsung prospects fill their voids. Remember, guys like Betts were not really even on the radar, early in their farm days. He joined our farm in 2011 and did not crack the top 20, until the winter of 2013 (at #10.)
We all saw how the vaunted Ben farm did not do all that well, so your concerns are well founded, but for the most part, the national rankings of players and team farms are right more than they are wrong. Yes, it's a gamble to count on the farm, but it's also a gamble on signing major free agents, especially someone like Yamo, who has no ML experience.
I'm excited by our farm. Maybe, because there has not been much else to get excited about, but there was a concerted effort to build up the farm for a long time. We have not traded a major prospect since Moncada (#1), Espinoza (#3) and maybe Kopech (#5) That was like 6 years ago. The big club suffered, some, as a result of this hoarding and making more trades for prospects than ones trading them away.
It is what it is. Every choice GMs make are gambles. Some seem riskier than others, but building up a farm has a pretty good track record, when you look at how the best teams in MLB have gotten that way, over the years. Did we build up the right way, or not?
We should know in the next few years.
Anthony, Mayer and Teel look like the best 3 we've had in the system (not in hindsight,) since maybe...
(from soxprospects rankings)
2015 Summer:
1. ERod (not our farm developed)
2. Moncada
3. Devers
7. Beni
2015 Fall:
1. Moncada
2. Devers
3. Espinoza
4. Margot
5. Beni
7. Kopech
2005:
1 HRam
2. Papelbon
3. Pedey
4. A Sanchez
5. Lester
2006
1. jake
2. Buch
4. Pedey
2014:
1. Bogey
2. JBJ
10. Betts (not sure we can count him without using hindsight)
2012
1. Bogey
2. Barnes
3. JBJ
Calling them suspects is fine. They are, but no matter how pessimistic you can get, our farm looks pretty good, right now.
I'm feeling pretty good about our 4-10 prospects and see a lot of promise in those beyond #10, although many will fail. I'm very high on...
4. Rafaela & 8. Abreu (only one needs to shine)
5. Bleis
10. Cespedes
7. Perales & 9. Wikelman (hopefully, one shines)
Maybe Yorke surprises me.
We can choose to be optimistic about these kids, or not. In this case, many "experts" agree that this is a very promising group of prospects, and many are ML ready or a year away.