moonslav59

I don't think anyone knows, and if you asked each of the many "honchos," you'd probably get different answers from each. If it's $200M, cots has us $10M under. Spotrac has us about $15M under. Maybe, trading Jansen would allow us to sign Monty, but I doubt that happens.

That kind of example happens to every team, at several positions, every year. Even returning players often have wildly different projections and final numbers from one year to the next. I project our offense from 2023 to 2024 will improve at C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B. It will be about the same in LF & RF. It will drop at DH and CF. I project our defense will improve slightly at C, 1B, 3B and LF. It will improve a lot at SS, 2B and hopefully CF (Rafaela wins the job). It may get worse in RF. Our pitching is hard to project. Gio & Bello vs Bello, Sale and Paxton at the 1-2 slots? Even? Pivetta, Crawford & Houck vs Pivetta, Crawford & Houck at the 3-4-5 slots? Even? Whitlock, Kluber plus 16 games of "openers" vs Whitlock, Murphy, Fitts & Walter? Even? (Remember, even= sucks.) The pen? 1/2: Jansen & Martin vs Jansen 3.63 in 45 IP & Martin 1.05 in 51 IP -- probably worse 3/4: Winckowski & Whitlock vs Wink 2.92 in 83 & Pivetta 3.07 in 56 IP-- likely worse 5/6: Campbell & Bernardino vs Bernardino 3.46 in 42 & Schreiber 3.83 in 45-- likely the same 7/8: Slaten & Mata vs Murphy 4.91 in 48 & Bleier 5.28 in 31-- maybe the same after 8: Murphy, Fitts, Weissert, Z Kelly, Criswell, Walter, Guerrero -- maybe better 2023: 5.46 Llovera (30 IP) 4.26 Jacques (25) 6.26 Walter (23) 1.66 Crawford (22) 7.29 Brasier (21) 6.27 K Ort (19) 6.23 Garza (17) 9.45 Kluber (13) 6.55 Joely (11) 6.55 Robertson (11)

Sox and Casas have had extension talks. Casas indicates the Sox did not come close to what he wants. No surprise, here. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/red-sox-triston-casas-have-discussed-possible-extension.html

OAA had us last, and it wasn't close: -50 BOS -37 CIN -29 MIA -21 LAA When you are as bad as the #27 & #28 teams, combined, that is horrific! That's way more than 2 losses. 50 more outs, our pitchers had to face, over average. 90 more outs than the best team! Up the middle D: 30th in CF (-2) Let's hope we see more of Rafaela or Abreu than Duran in CF. We could improve here, by a lot, if Duran stays in LF. 30th at 2B (-13) Grissom should bring us near the norm. 23rd at SS (-3) Story brought us from worst to 23rd in just a couple months. We can be top 5-10 at SS in '24. The corners: 29th at 1B (-10) Let's hope Casas continues to show the improvement he showed over 2023. 28th at 3B (-12) Devers has had better seasons than this. How will he do in '24? Sox in '22 were at 18th place (-4) and 2nd in 2019 at +17! 24th in LF (-10) Less Yoshida in LF should move us up, here. 9th in RF (0) the loss of Dugo could hurt, but Abreu looks okay and O'Neill might be, too.

So, 72-88, then. I'd say 70-86. (mid point 78)

Here is what we lost and gained, since spring 2023: Graduated: 2. Casas 15. EValdez 17. Murphy 27. Z Kelly NR Bernardino (added in '23, too) & Jacques Lost to Rule 5 13. Drohan NR R Fernandez Trades NR Victor Santos & Nick Robertson (O'Neill) Added since the end of 2022: 3. Teel (drafted) 10. Cespedes (IFA) 11. R Fitts (Dugo trade) 12. Zanetello (drafted) ??, D Sandlin (Schreiber trade) not rated, yet 22. A Anderson (drafted) 24. J Slated (Rule 5) 31. F Arias (IFA) 46. K Campbell (drafted) 49. J Riemer (drafted) 50. H Olivares (MiLFA) 57. C Early (drafted) 58. N Judice (Dugo trade) NR (still a prospect?) I Campbell (Urias trade) & Weissert (Dugo trade) NR Jorge Benitez & others (minor league FAs)

Soxprospects.com has theirs: https://www.soxprospects.com/history.htm 1 Marcelo Mayer 2 Triston Casas 3 Miguel Bleis 4 Ceddanne Rafaela 5 Bryan Mata 6 Nick Yorke 7 Mikey Romero 8 Luis Perales 9 Brandon Walter 10 Eddinson Paulino 11 Roman Anthony 12 Matthew Lugo 13 Shane Drohan 14 Wilkelman Gonzalez 15 Enmanuel Valdez 16 Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz 17 Chris Murphy 18 Blaze Jordan 19 Nathan Hickey 20 Niko Kavadas 21 Marvin Alcantara 22 Brainer Bonaci 24 Wilyer Abreu 25 Luis Guerrero

MLBTR on Sandlin... Sandlin brings some intriguing potential to the table, as the righty (who turns 23 next week) has a 3.41 ERA and an outstanding 32.38% strikeout rate in 68 2/3 career minor league innings. An 11th-round pick for the Royals in the 2022 draft, Sandlin had his 2023 season cut short by a lat injury, and he made only two appearances at the high-A level before being sidelined. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently ranked Sandlin as the fifth-best prospect in the Royals’ farm system, while The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked the righty seventh. Baseball America was slightly more pessimistic in ranking Sandlin only 20th, but still felt Sandlin might develop into at least a good reliever based on his two primary pitches —- a high 90s fastball and a plus slider. If his changeup and curveball can also develop, Sandlin can perhaps stick in the rotation, though he’s still something of a wild card considering that he hasn’t yet pitched much in pro ball.

Most have the Royals farm ranked bottom 10, so it's hard to know just how good David Sandlin is. Here is my top 25: 1. Anthony 2. Teel 3. Mayer 4. Rafaela 5. Bleis 6. Abreu 7. Cespedes 8. Yorke 9. Zanetello 10. Joh Garcia 11. Perales 12. Wikelman 13. Fitts 14. Sandlin 15. Castro 16. Monegro 17. Anderson 18. Hickey 19. Meidroth 20. Slaten 21. Romero 22. Guerrero 23. Arias 24. Jordan 25. E R-C

I don't think it's as hard as some think it is. You just have to be prepared to take the best offer, even if you think it's not good enough. Try for the best, but take the best offered. This season, we don't have many big return trade chips, but we have a few that could bring back value, especially if they are having good years. 1 year guys: Martin Jansen (may be traded before opening day) Gio O'Neill Pivetta Refsnyder (option) Criswell 2 year guy McGuire Longer term guys who might be traded: Duran (5 yrs) Yoshida (4 yrs) Story (4 yrs + option)

I know nothing about the guy we got, except he was #7 on their farm. That's pretty good. I'm not against the trade, but I don't like losing Schreiber. I understand some of his metrics showed Schreiber was a bit lucky in '22 and lost it in '23, after the injury, so I'm hopeful Brez knows what he's doing. Personally, I think Schreiber was top end of mediocre, at worst, and was better than most of what we had. With Houck and Crawford looking like Rotation pieces, I'd have kept him, but 2024 looks like a punt, so the trade makes sense.

I doubt we trade Gio or O'Neill until the deadline. I'm fine with trading any and all 1 year players, at this point. If we sign Monty, my view will change.

He was better than dozens of RPers we used since 2022. Only 3-4 were better. If he’s mediocre, at least he’s better than most we’ve had.

He should bring back much more. BTV 34 Duran 10 Schreiber

It should be noted that while his D improved from '22-'23, his offense, while fine, was his worst back-to-back 2 year stretch in his last 6 years. OPS+ 135 in '18 139 '19 (137 2 yrs) 128 '20 129 '21 (129 2 yrs) 131 '22 120 '23 (125 over 2 yrs) wRC+ 133, 141 129, 129 133, 120 It's not a big drop off, but it is concerning for such a long contract.

I guess you have Rafaela & Abreu breaking camp on the big club. I'm thinking Yorke should be added to your list. (Plus, pitchers, of course.)

We probably need 3 out of 4 of each set to go right: (Health for just about all) Devers has a near career year Story hits close to what he did w COL Casas hits like he did after May. Yoshida to comeback. O'Neill to hit like a couple years ago. Grissom to reach his promise Duran to hit like last year, but for 550+ PAs Wong or McGuire to be average Rafaela or Abreu to step up. Jansen & Martin to stay healthy Wink and Whit to be strong pen arms The rest of the pen does not embarrass us. Giolito to pitch like before. Bello to reach his promise. Pivetta to pitch like he did second half of '23. Houck & Crawford to pitch like average 4/5 slot SP'ers So, basically 3 out of 4, 4 times.

He also had his best DRS numbers from '22-'23 (+1), but he still placed just 17th out of 32 SSs with 1000+ innings over at SS over the past 2 seasons. He placed 15th in UZR/150 at +2.3. 2014-2021 (35 SSs with 3,000+ innings) 19th in UZR/150 at +0.2 35th out of 35 in DRS at -55 (203 DRS'd behind Simmons!)

Probably. 4.1 BB/9 in 29 IP MLB (small sample) 2.2 in AA (37 IP) 2.8 in A+ (52 IP) 2.6 in college (220 IP, mostly as a SP)

He did not look nearly as good in 2022, after coming off the 60 day IL. KC must think he still has his stuff, but then again, maybe they did not like Sandlin, all that much. I liked Schreiber. He is a rags to riches story, and one of the few gems in the rough Bloom added. I'm not sure what the expectations are, going forward. I would think he's expected to do better than Mata, Slaten, Campbell and maybe even Bernardino.

My guess is that Mata or Slaten will not be on the opening day 26 man roster, anyway. I think this was to make room on the 40 for a SP'er, clear a slot for Campbell and build up our pitching prospect value and depth. Sandlin is in high A b all, so lets give him some time.

I have no idea. I think they wanted Isaiah Campbell on the 26 or are about to add a SP'er.

I'm not so sure he was or is mediocre. He's been out top pen fWAR guy from '22-'23, granted some have been here just 1 year or started a lot: 1.9 Schreiber (110 IP) 1.5 Martin (51) 1.1 Jansen (45) 0.9 Whitlock (59) & Pivetta (56) 0.8 Wink (86) 0.6 Brasier (83) 0.4 Bernardino (42), Murphy (48) & Houck (43) How about stats not dependent on IP? xFIP 2.90 Martin 2.97 Whitlock 3.21 Pivetta 3.50 Houck 3.55 Schreiber 3.78 Bernardino 3.90 Wink 4.07 Murphy 4.61 Jansen K% 35 Pivetta 29 Whitlock 28 Schreiber 27 Jansen ERA- 23 Martin 66 Schreiber & Houck 68 Pivetta 70 Wink Maybe they know something about his injury and the longer term effects.

Someone automatically takes his place at $720M minimum. You can't have a 39 man roster, all year.

What makes you think our morals changed? I've always been for giving people a second chance, and there is a lot of gray area in his case to know enough to think he is beyond redemption or forgiveness.