Maxbialystock

You're probably right. Holt's OWAR in 55 games is a horrible -0.6, but he can back up the infield, including 1b, and the outfield. Davis is the pinchrunner and occasional OF. Nunez is an infielder or a DH and one of our better bats.

Very nicely done. Great on Hanley--I had no idea. Too hard to pick best 3 of 7 now.

Current OWAR's (and games played): Betts 3.1 (147) Bogaerts 2.8 (139) JBJ 2.4 (124) Beni 2.0 (142) Pedey 1.8 (100) Vazquez 1.5 (91) Devers 1.3 (48) Nunez 1.2 (37) Moreland .8 (140) Travis 0.0 (28) Ramirez -.1 (125) Leon -.2 (81) Holt -.6 (55) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Farrell, please note) Worth noting that Betts overall WAR jumps to 6.1, JBJ's to 3.3, Beni's to 2.6, Moreland's to 1.5. But Vazque's overall WAR drops to 1.1 and Bogie's to 1.6 and Devers's to .8.

Mostly pitching, but both in the sense that, while the Guardians pitching has given up 505 earned runs to our second best 560, they also only given up 33 earned runs to our 56. So, whatever range, etc the Guardians defense has or doesn't have, they at least don't give up a lot of unearned runs. moonslav has in the past written a lot about the importance of the defense for the pitching--they can't literally save runs. Thus Tuesday night JBJ saved 1 run with the grab over the wall,fence and Beni saved another with the great throw to nail a speedy Machado from scoring from 2b on a 2 out single. I'm not talking about that kind of defense, only the kind that doesn't commit errors or passed balls, etc.--or at least not the kind that lead to unearned runs. I would say our outfield defense is as good as any, but our infield overall is probably subpar. Catching is par or better I think.

The Guardians are 9-1 in their last 10, the Yankees 8-2, the Sox 7-3, and the Astros 7-3. Those are the likely ALDS teams and all seem to be playing well right now. The Guardians have by far the best defense (runs against), then us, then the Yankees, then, comfortably last, the Astros. Astros lead in offense (runs for),but close behind are the Yankees, the the Guardians, then us.

Moreland out for Travis with a lefty starter, but of course he can get back in if a righty shows up. HanRam at DH, probably right. And no Devers--Marrero instead. Hmmm. Pedey back at 2b and no Holt.

That's the real point about tonight. Yes,we definitely want/need the win, but more than that we need Sale to be Sale again.

I guess I misread what you wrote: "but fielding grounds balls and throws--there is little difference." Plus you said Moreland keeps getting in Pedroia's way which presumably HanRam doesn't do. Like you, I haven't seen the gold glove first baseman, but I have seen an acceptable one--about even on the DWAR scale. Plus this year we needed his bat as much or more as we needed his glove and arm and footwork at 1b--especially now that it's crunch time. Since August 1st Moreland has missed two games even though earlier he missed more games against lefty starters. The real problem--disagreement--must be that I simply ain't that picky about the defense or for that matter the base running.

You're both right. Yes, I was exaggerating. That is, I'm sure good comments were made on both plays when they were made. My point is that in last three pages we are looking at the game as whole, and in that context much is made of Devers error and Moreland's presumed misplay--that they could have cost us the game. Of course they did not. So then I jumped in with Beni and JBJ because they clearly, unmistakably each saved the game by himself. We don't get to the 11th inning without both of those plays. Also, as you have just said, the usual commentary on Beni is about all the mistakes he makes--most of which I am happy to overlook because I think his natural position is CF. Even last year, however, he made that stunning catch, I think in the Trop, over the left field wall. So me, I see the potential more than the faults, especially when he has been one of our two or three best bats when we badly needed them and this is his rookie season.

You like HanRam over Moreland? Fine. You can have him. This year I'll take Moreland every day and twice on Sunday and especially at 1B. Your observations are fine, but the numbers say I'm right. Moreland has had the bigger bat this year, which was supposed to be HanRam's mission. Instead, he has compensated by being too aggressive on the basepaths.

I am one of those saying, "show me," but I have also invited anyone to go to a specific game and point out something egregious that cost that game. Egregious is the key word because errors are part of the game therefore not normally egregious. As for the wild pitch--I agree. It cost the game, but it was also not egregious--not something boneheaded or weak fundamentals or whatever. Had that Oriole scored after Devers' error, it would at least have cost the win if not the game. But it too was not egregious. Devers is mostly in the lineup to hit and he had 2 of our 6 last night. Speaking of egregious, Beni regularly gets cited on talksox for not playing the wall right or for making a bad throw or whatever. What a dummy--all these years and he still can't play the outfield with all that speed. Naturally, since we prefer the blame game, nobody is saying, "wow, what a great throw after having to come in quickly on the grounder single to LF to nail Machado, no slowpoke, trying to score from 2d with two outs. Beni saved this game!" Nope. That was never said. Heck, I'm not even sure anyone said JBJ saved the game with that grab over the fence/wall. Instead, we dwell on a bad throw and, just as bad, failure by our experienced firstbaseman to catch or block a throw on the bounce he had to stretch for. If you watched closely as I did, last night was a semi-miraculous win when Pom did get hit now and then and did have men on base, but still went 6.1 scoreless innings (a lot for him) and when the bullpen was lights out again for 4.2 innings and five--count 'em)--different relievers and when we were 0 for 4 with RISP and finally got a very lucky run in the 11th when Brach fell apart and Showalter left him in. We won despite Gausman having a great night, going 8 and giving up nothing and because the outfield made two terrific plays to prevent two different runs by the Orioles. So, me, I'm just happy with that and frankly don't care what Devers or Moreland did when nobody scored and Barnes was up to the challenge (for a change).

Good year, no question. Good acquisition. But am I the only one on edge with every batter he faces and all those pitches he throws each inning? The knuckle curve is good, but he sometimes leaves it up. The so-so fastball works because he spots it well and picks the right times to throw it (in conjunction with the catcher of course). Last night I saw a graphic that said, season to date, about 90% of his pitches are one or the other--fast ball or knuckle curve. After one inning, I don't remember which, I checked the location of every pitch for every batter, and it was clear to me he has gotten pretty good at working those corners while also moving the location around and alternating those two pitches.

Among regular ("qualified") MLB first basemen this year, his DWAR is well above average.

I don't have a replay, but saw the replays during the game and disagree. Moreland has to make a split second decision on whether to block the throw or to keep his foot on the bag and stretch for it. He wanted the out and no doubt felt he could field it on the hop. As for what happened, I just trust that a first baseman with his experience had the glove in the right place but of course could not be certain of the bounce. I also think it's a tad strange to blame this on Moreland when Devers was the one the official scorer charged with the error. Let's not forget that Devers had abundant time on that throw, so he is the one that made that play close and the decision on whether to block or get the out had to be made.

Meaning what? Somebody died? Girardi should get fired? Hitting don't mean jack? There's a bunch of folks on talksox who think the Yankees can be tough especially since the rotation is looking pretty good (to go with the bullpen).

And thank goodness for that!

In 2004, 2007, and 2013 the Sox had really good offenses and led the league (or near it) in runs scored, OPS, etc. Plenty of dingers too. Indeed, in all three years the Sox led or were 2d in MLB in net runs scored vs. runs scored against-- In 2004 the Sox net was +180 and the Cardinals were the only ones better with + 187. Does anyone remember who we played in the WS? In 2007 The Sox led MLB with + 210, and the next three were the Yankees at +191, the Guardians at +115, and the Rockies at +110. Does anyone remember we played in the ALCS and WS that year? In 2013--you must know where this is headed--the Sox led with +197, next were the Cardinals with +187, and next were the Tigers with +172. We played the Tigers in the ALCS and the Cardinals in the WS. So, wild and crazy though this might sound, just maybe a team's net--runs scored minus runs against--is a decent barometer for postseason success. This year the Guardians lead the MLB pack with +227 (a huge differential), then come the Yankees at +175 and the Dodgers at +172, the Astros at +151, the Nationals at +144, the Diamondbacks at +143, and, finally, the Sox at +113. As of today, September 20, the Guardians have 94 wins, the Yankees 84, the Dodgers 96, the Astros 92, the Nationals 91, the Diamondbacks 87, and the Sox 87. Except for the Yankees, that's a pretty high correlation between net runs scored and wins. And, based on those other--granted, carefully selected--postseason years of 2004, 2007, and 2017, net runs scored also seems to be a decent predictor for postseason success. I find that astonishing given that this year, like most years, the winning percentages for the best team, the Dodgers is 64% and the two "worst" teams of that select group at the top, the Sox and Diamondbacks, is 58%. Both round off to winning 6 of 10 games. Indeed, the Giants, with the worst won-lost record in MLB right now, still win 4 of 10 games. Thus, if the carefully selected past is prologue, it would seem the Sox will do well just to get to the ALCS, let alone win it--whoever they play in the ALDS.

Hausman wasn't that great, but had our guys mesmerized.

Great start by Pom's, great bullpen, horrible hitting. Except for Devers, good D.

I'm not ready to focus on the full 25 or 26 man roster at this point. Besides, the lineup and most the bullpen are pretty much set with variations based mostly on whose healthy enough and who isn't. If Nunez and Pedey are well, the both probably start. And so. All those other guys are on the margins. To me the key topic is the rotation, and I agree with MVP78 there are some tough calls. I still like Fister, but now think he has to have two good starts to get back into the top 4. Sale is still #1. Pom is probably #2 at this point. My tiebreaker on Porcello vs. ERod for #3 is probably who are we playing. Some teams hit righties better than lefties and vice versa. If they kill lefties, Porcello is my #3. If they kill lefties,I might also move Fister up, but for that he has to have at least one good start before the postseason. Then there's the Price thing. He's committed to the bullpen, but what is to prevent Farrell from giving him 3 or 4 innings--situation-dependent of course--his next time out? If nothing else, he could be our best long reliever, the one guy who can save the bullpen if Farrell has to pull a starter really early.

Meh. I hope you realize the Sox only need to go 7-5 in the next 12 games to finish with 93 wins, same as last year. And let's not forget that the guy we lost was one David Ortiz, the crucial link to the great offenses of 2004, 2007, and 2013. Ortiz helped win two WS for Francona--remember him?--and another for Farrell. Without him, the hitting has unquestionably suffered, and that is most noticeable in the team's slugging percentage and number of dingers. Last year we were #1 in MLB in slugging and #9 in dingers, this year #26 in slugging and #27 in dingers, but we are still 10th in scoring. Are you saying the slugging and dingers dropped off the table because Farrell makes dumb decisions and doesn't stress fundamentals? That's a hard sell. I think that 10th in scoring, still in the top 1/3 in MLB, suggests that crazy, boneheaded baserunning might be helping more than hurting and that Farrell has adjusted pretty well to the precipitous drop in hitting with power. I would love to claim credit for Farrell for the overall improvement in defense--pitching plus fielding--because so far, with 12 games to go, the Sox have given up just 616 runs, over 100 below last year's 729. But I give most of the credit to DD for getting Sale and earlier Pom and Porcello and this year Fister. Plus Kimbrel, Reed, et al. The pitching is better for the very simple reason that the pitchers are better (Porcello being the exception of course). You are probably more of an aficionado of baseball than I, which explains why you hate weak fundamentals and I, appallingly, tolerate them--if such they are. I won't at all disagree that sometimes Farrell's decisions don't work out. I have raged against them myself. But overall I think there is a pretty good rationale for all of them and admit he has better information and more experience than I.

Tough crowd. In 2004, 2007, and 2013 the Sox had really good offenses and led the league (or near it) in runs scored, OPS, etc. Plenty of dingers too. Indeed, in all three years the Sox led MLB in net runs scored vs. runs scored against-- In 2004 the Sox net was +180 and the Cardinals were the only ones better with + 187. Does anyone remember who we played in the WS? In 2007 The Sox led MLB with + 210, and the next three were the Yankees at +191, the Guardians at +115, and the Rockies at +110. Does anyone remember we played in the ALCS and WS that year? In 2013--you must know where this is headed--the Sox led with +197, next were the Cardinals with +187, and next were the Tigers with +172. So, wild and crazy though this might sound, just maybe a team's net--runs scored minus runs against--is a decent barometer for postseason success. This year the Guardians lead the MLB pack with +227 (a huge differential), then come the Yankees at +175 and the Dogers at +172, the Astros at +151, the Nationals at +144, the Diamondbacks at +143, and, finally, the Sox at +113. And people want to dump Farrell because he failed to take this splendid hitting and pitching team all the way in 2017? Our fundamentalists are no doubt wanting to say, "hold it. You forgot all those stupid boneheaded decisions by Farrell and his lassitude in preventing weak fundamentals on the basepaths and in the field. OSurely those are worth something because we all know those other mangers never make mistakes and their teams all play good, fundamental baseball all the freaking time. Surely that's worth at least 100 runs per season, which means the Sox really should be at +213. That's the difference between a Francona at the helm and a Farrell."

Me too, bigtime. They are probably the best team in MLB right now. And why are the Yankees now the beast from the east? The Sox have played them 14 times since the ASG and have split, 7-7. Yes, Sabathia, Tanaka, and Severino outpitched our guys (Pom, Sale, and Porcello) 2 1/2 weeks ago, but I think our team is better now and despite limited availability of both Nunez and Pedroia. Betts, Beni, and Bogie are all hitting better. Of course, it could all boil down to the rotations--as was exactly the case last year against Cleveland in the ALDS. I freely admit I was impressed with the Yankees "big 3" 2 1/2 weeks ago, but that was just one game apiece. I think Sale is still a great starter with a good array of pitches, especially when he uses the changeup and keeps the ball low. Pom has been steady if not great. Porcello could still get back to where he was a year ago--see 7.1 innings and 0 runs in his last start. ERod too seems to be more consistent even though, like Pom, he throws a lot of pitches per inning. In his last 3 starts he averaged six innings and gave up 2, 1, and 2 earned runs--and had 24 K's vs 6 BB's. Fister at this point looks like #5, but he could get back to where he was before his last 2 starts. And backing up all five Price is looking pretty good--I know, just two innings in relief, but good ones nevertheless. In the playoffs, barring an early disaster which is what happened last year to both Price and Porcello, Farrell again has a pretty good bullpen to call on-- and early if need be. Also, as you point out, right now the Sox are the experienced team, not the Yankees, in postseason play. In 2012 the Yankees went to the ALCS and lost 4 straight to the Tigers. I think the only regular left from that team is Gardner. Since 2012 the Yankees have played in one, exactly one postseason game, which they lost in 2015. I checked the box score and think the only two guys still in the lineup are Gardner and Gregorious. We still have guys--Pedey and Bogaerts anyway-- left from 2013 and almost all from last year's ALDS.

Punchless and little by and large applies to the four killer bees (Betts, Bogie, Beni, and JBJ) even though Bogie is 6'1". All are having down years, but they are still I think the core of this team. One of them--mostly Betts--leads the Sox in every offensive category you can think of--runs, rbi's, total bases, OBP, SLG, OPS, SB's, dingers, doubles, triple, hits, walks, you name it. In many of those categories 3 of those 4 are among the top four on the team. I think that's why Bogie, Beni, and Betts are pretty firmly entrenched in the top 4 in the batting order in September--because overall they have been the most reliable offensive players on this team. JBJ is stuck in 9th, but that hasn't kept him from doing some damage. Those four killer B's are ages (meaning their birthdays are this year) 23, 25, 25, and 27 which have already led many on talksox to discuss who should be a keeper and who not. For my money, they all are. But the rejoinder to that is: "yeah, but you don't have any money,and these guys could be expensive to keep in this era of astronomical MLB salaries." Anyway, those four have been pretty darn useful in this stretch run, especially now that Nunez is out and Pedey is not quite Pedey (lately). Moreland's doing OK, season to date, but HanRam--apparently because of a nagging injury--is not. Devers bat has helped for sure, but not his glove or arm (DWAR -.2). Yes, pitching is still our long suit. Last night Fister bombed, but the bullpen picked up the pieces beautifully. As good as it is, the pitching will always need the lineup to score some runs in order to actually win the game--see some of Sale's starts early this season.

This is the ironic Kimmi, right?