Maxbialystock

Game 1 is Oct 5 and game 4 is October 9, 4 days rest. If we are up 2-1 in games, I probably go with Porcello and use Sale in game 5, October 11, on 6 days rest. If we are down 1-2 in games, I probably go with Sale.

OP question is much too easy. Better for me is, who is your number 2? The WAR and the whole season argue strongly for POM, but ERod has better stuff--by a good margin--and lately (last 4 starts, average 6 innings and 5 ER's given up) has shown better command of those pitches. So, me, I want to see what those two do against the Astros this week. If ERod does great and Pom struggles again, ERod is my #2. Some guys like to go with the hot bat. I like to go with the hot arm. Plus, as some of you probably know, I am not a big Pomeranz fan even though I agree entirely he was a huge bonus for the rotation this year, especially when Price went on the DL (twice?) and Porcello was horrendous. If our rotation is decent, it's mostly because of Sale and Pom. But what worries me about Pom he is a starter with basically two pitches--knuckle curve and fast ball. He's a lefty who faces 75% or more righty bats and still does not have a viable changeup.

Back to Porcello. I hate that he can't seem to keep the ball low and relies too much on his fastball. My solution would be to extend his pregame warm-up for however long it takes for him to demonstrate he has command of all his pitches. If this shortens the number of innings he can pitch, so be it. The Sox only have 5 starters, so I think all 5 are still in the mix for the 4 needed. Sale is in for sure. Pom, Fister, and ERod all have a chance against Houston to prove they should make the cut, with Fister clearly the long shot. If he bombs tomorrow night, I think Porcello is #4. If he has a quality start, Farrell might have a tough decision on #4. Interestingly, I don't think either one would be good as a long reliever. That job belongs to Price anyway. I honestly don't see Pom or ERod dropping out of the rotation at this point. Pom has been decent to good all season. ERod has very good stuff and lately seems to have better command.

Sale's three best consecutive starts this season, all shutouts, were the first three games after the ASG and 9 days of rest. October 5 is 9 days after September 26. That too me is the best plan for Sale at this point, but it also means the Sox will have to win the AL East without him unless Farrell uses him in relief. Pitching Sale on 1-2 days rest is just nonsense to support a cockamammie theory. Aren't you one of those who have bought into the theory that Sale should have been pitching a lot less going back to August 1? If winning on October 1 guarantees the AL East which can't be won before that date, then maybe Sale does pitch on that day.

Right now Betts's WAR is 6.0, 2d best RF in AL, JBJ's 3.0, 7th best CF in AL, and Beni's 2.7, 3d best LF in AL. This year JBJ's OPS's were decent to great in May, June, and August, and awful in April, July, and September. His hitting has been off and on liek that virtually since he came into the Sox system. Sometimes he seems completely incapable of seeing the ball. Sometimes he just can't hit the ball squarely. He leads the team in K's with 122 in 471 at bats, almost exactly 1 in 4. His best OPS's are with runners on and RISP--.838 and .820-- and his worst are with the bases empty or when he leads off an inning--.640 and .697.

Well said. I regularly gripe about Porcello, but I think the coaches and manager have more information and experience to make the right judgment on Porcello. After the first inning and my constant raving about what a bum he was, I pretty much settled down and rooted for him the next 4.2 innings. Too many talksoxer's are more than willing to dump a starter at the first sign of trouble, regardless of the inning or for that matter the score. It's like being at the Coliseum in Rome and seeing those early thumbs down. And it carries over. Cemented in the boo birds minds is the stark reality that Farrell blew it again.

Last night's win was absolutely, positively huge. I had little faith in Pom and said so, but I actually looked forward to the game eagerly because I thought, "whatever else, I'm watching a big game, and the outcome if far from a foregone conclusion." Hell, it was like an early postseason game because a lot was at stake. I was so mad at Porcello after the first innings I couldn't stop commenting on the game thread. The 1 run in the 1st helped, and the three in the 2d said clearly this was not Tuesday night's team. At that point I also began defending Farrell for leaving Porcello in,which proved to be the right decision if only because Porcello is still an option for the postseason rotation. espn's idiotic headline for the game says we won because of Pedey. But in fact it was Bogie who pulled a Betts, first scoring from 1b on a single and then driving in 3 with the dinger. HanRam not too shabby either. Heck, 13 hits and 10 runs has lots of heroes. So tonight another in-season playoff game. As Kimmi says, you gotta like our situation right now. The Astros won't roll over, but I like our chances for at least 1 and maybe 2 wins. So the Yankees pretty much have to win out--no mean feat.

Let it also be noted that this dickhead ump has screwed both pitchers--not much reward for hitting corners.

I'd love to say the Sox have been great scoring 9 without Betts or Nunez, but I really think this is all because the Jays manager left Estrada in too long--15 innings total--in his last two starts. Plus in August he threw over 600 pitches. He looked exhausted out there. You can always tell. I mean, hey, the Sox are hitless wonders without Betts and Nunez. Plus before tonight Estrada owned the Sox, going 17 innings in 3 starts and giving just 2 runs. Clearly out of gas. Still, I'm pretty happy with those 9 runs.

I already did--at length. How about he is a scrofulous, worthless, no account Porcello-type whose grandmother wears combat boots?

To think I badmouthed HanRam on the first page. Boy, do I love being wrong like that.

Wins and losses. If the FO thinks you should have done better, you are gone. If you win the AL East, your job is probably safe for another year. The bs about when to pull a starter is just nuisance value.

That was some pretty nifty baserunning by Bogaerts. Lousy fundamentals, course. Never make third out when it's safer to stay at 3b or something like that. But still, ignorant guys like me enjoy seeing a guy score from 1b on a single.

Sox come roaring back in larger part because Estrada has had to throw 30 pitches in this inning.

I hope you are wrong. Hope.

1. That's why. 2. Now my turn. Why is it instantly the manager's fault when a player screws up? You are focusing on the wrong dude here, especially at the salary Porcello makes.

At this point I have wonder how Porcello warms up and whether anyone like the pitching coach is watching him. He absolutely came out determined to stick to the fastball and to avoid low pitches at any cost--except for the one that bounced in front of the plate of course. Totally unprepared to start his game and certainly not guided by the pitching coach in any useful way.

Let's not forget that dinger was preceded by back to back doubles. tonight the Jay's are feasting on a carcass of a pitcher.

Sadly, the first was entirely predictable when it was clear Porcello was never going to throw anything low in the strike zone and rely almost solely on fast balls. The dinger was off a juicy curve just about dead center in the strike zone. More and more it seems to me Porcello took some kind of pledge to keep his pitches up regardless of the consequences.

Estrada's 4th start against us. As Kimmi says, in the first three games he was very effective. His September ERA is below 2, his best this season.

Farrell is no idiot. But I would be disingenuous if I did not admit that even I might have pulled Sale early on September 20 even though Sale absolutely did not want to come out. It may not have been necessary, but it would have been sensible. I'm not sure I buy the 41 pitches--28 would be more like it. Pull him after 6. Give Sale the extra shutout inning--a nice compromise.

Still no Betts. Four lefty and five righty bats against righty Estrada. Pedey in a slump. Bradley too. Davis not much. Moreland could be OK, but not HanRam.

Sale alternated good and bad starts earlier in the season as well. May was just as bad a month--also with 6 starts--as August, ERA of 4.24 vs. ERA 4.38. His two best months, with ERA's of 1.19 and 1.04 were April and July, and his two worst months were May and August. September was in the middle, ERA-wise. If you say Sale was wearing down in August, how do you explain May? Or, for that matter, how do you explain a better ERA in September than in August and that on September 9 and again on September 20 he pitched shut out ball? Also, how do you explain shutting down the Jays for 7 innings (with 11 K's and zero walks) on August 29 when he was in the middle of this 60 day decline?

OK, I think I know where the fire Farrell gang is coming from on this rest issue. On September 20, 2017, a day which will now live in infamy, Farrell failed to pull Sale after six innings and instead let him pitch 8 innings. Since Sale averaged about 14 pitches per inning that night, I think this boils down to 28 extra, needless, insane, ridiculous, thoughtless pitches. It made no difference Sale would have an extra day's rest before his next start at home against the Jays. Those 28 pitches clearly pushed Sale beyond his limit, and what we saw last night was a wreck, a pale imitation of the fireballing ace we had seen in the distant past--way back on September 20 when he struck out 13 over 8 scoreless innings. That Sale was now gone. Here's why I have a problem with that thesis. First and foremost, Sale still struck out 8 guys in 5 innings last night. Second his heater--the 97 mph and above version--was very much in evidence. He was also throwing changeups and sliders. However--and a small amount of this has to do with an ump who wasn't given him any corners--what I saw was that his breaking balls were up in the zone and therefore very hittable. In fact, one of Donaldson's dingers came off a slider and the other off a changeup, both up in the zone. All four dingers came off of pitches up in the zone, but not way up. In other words, just about right for a team facing Sale for the 4th time this season and with some pretty good bats. The most dingers by a MLB team so far this season is 232, and the Jays have 219. Then there is the fact that Sale has thrown just 502 pitches this month, easily the fewest in a month this season. Among those 5 starts he has actually pitched two shutout games, one for 8 innings and the other 6 innings. So, while I will give credit to moonslav, mvp78 and others for complaining during the September 20 game that Sale needed to be rested because the Sox had a big lead, I'm less sure than they that those 28 pitches pushed Sale over a cliff. I think it's just as reasonable to say he lacked command of his pitches last night and that the Jays were ready for those pitches up in the zone. Heck, back in July, by far his best month with an ERA of 1.04, he went 7 innings against the Rays and gave up 4 runs, including 2 dingers.

A fair point. Who does like to watch Porcello pitch? That said, at least he's a righty--the Jays just killed our two best lefties. Also Betts MRI says "no structural damage" to his wrist.