Since the blind stupid luck of winning 22 straight games, the Guardians have won 2 of 3, and the loss was by 4-3. It's hard for me to see Cleveland collapsing or even playing below .500 in their few remaining games. The have given up 528 runs in 149 games, and the second lowest is 608 runs in 148 games--our guys. That's over .5 runs per game. The Yankees and Astros have given up 613 and 663 runs, also in 148 games.
Defense, pitching and fielding, tends to hold up better than hitting.
The Astros only have 1 more loss than the Guardians, so they could definitely catch them. They've won 4 in a row, but are 5-5 in their last 10. Their last 7 games are on the road against the Rangers and the Sox.
Houston is a little like us last year--great hitting, easily the best in MLB (runs scored and team OPS)--but somewhat suspect pitching. Plus hitting, sadly, can come and go even with the best of teams.
I believe I am correct that we are 2-1 against Houston (all games in Houston, 1st half of season) and 4-3 vs. Cleveland (all 2d half of the season).