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Maxbialystock

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Everything posted by Maxbialystock

  1. Nunez never, ever makes that play. Nor, for that matter, does JBJ.
  2. My goodness, this gets old really fast: Pom can't find the plate.
  3. Oh, come on. If that were true, every MLB team would not have 12 pitchers on their 25 man active rosters. This game is dominated by the confrontations between hitters and pitchers, and good pitchers can make a huge difference in game outcomes, as can bad ones. Despite the lowered mounds, smaller ball park dimensions, etc. hitters today struggle against good pitchers and are sort of bottom feeders--looking for that "pitch to hit." Guys like Mookie are definitely the exception, and even he will have his 0-for games. That's I think why good scoring teams have several good bats in the lineup. Plus home run power.
  4. To be honest, all I really wanted to achieve with that lengthy analysis was to underscore that playing or not playing JBJ is not an easy decision for Cora. For me right now it seems obvious to bench him, but you can't be sure he won't finally figure out how to fix his swing. This is exactly what happened in 2014 and again in 2015, both losing seasons for the Sox after winning it all in 2013 with Ellsbury in CF with a WAR of 5.8. In 2016 JBJ had a WAR of 5.3 and last year half that at 2.8. Both 93 win seasons. Right now the Sox seem to have a team, assuming the bullpen comes around, that could win 100 games thanks to excellent hitting and a rotation that was very good early and could be very good again if the last outings by Price, Sale, Pom, and ERod are any indication. Plus Porcello of course. And Velazquez in a pinch.
  5. Actually, no. However effective our offense is against a specific pitcher, 100% of it comes from our hitters. I completely agree that a great pitcher against us makes a huge difference or even a decent pitcher having a great game--see the no hitter earlier. Or Severino last weekend. Or even Friday night's game when our hitters looked tired.
  6. In retrospect the dance was maybe not a good idea, but I kind of liked it because they were all young and relatively small and overall pretty darn good. Plus the team was winning. If JD was the one who killed it, that makes sense and it's fine with me. As for millenials not watching a lot of MLB games on TV, I think that's very understandable. When I was their age, I thought it was insane to do so. Now I'm an addict.
  7. You get my vote. Highest for me was babe ruth league.
  8. WAR ratings for Moreland, +.9, and JBJ, -.4, right now give Moreland the decisive edge. I actually think the gap is larger because Moreland's OPS is almost double JBJ's. I also think JBJ doesn't make nearly the difference on defense that people usually give him credit for. I agree he's good, maybe gold glove good, but I also think 80% of defense is the guy on the mound, not the eight position players on the field with him. There are actually 9 players on defense, including the pitcher. If you divide the defensive pie by 9, you get 2% and change for each. If you divide the 9 offensive players, including the DH, into 100%, the average contribution is 10% and change. That's a five to one ratio, hitting over defense. You can make it closer by saying the pitcher only counts 60%, which is ridiculous, and by giving the centerfielder a higher than average responsibility. But I think the best you can justify is saying offense is twice as important as defense for any player with the possible exception of the catcher. I separate catchers out because they are so important on defense and because so few players want to be catchers or are able to become catchers. JBJ has stayed in the lineup for big chunks of this season for several reasons: great glove, great pitching for the first 20 games or so, great hitting by the team, and a great won-lost record. Now that the Yankees have caught up and there are questions about the pitching, hitting has become that much more important, and JBJ's very weak bat is hurting the offense, especially when both catchers are not hitting well either. Oh, and that .510 of his is artificially high. It was .650 in April and is .212 (OPS, not OBP) in May. Overall, however, I think the Sox want to keep him awhile because it's possible his hitting will come around as it has done in the past. Plus he will remain a world class defensive replacement if nothing else.
  9. Bullpen looked pretty darn good today/tonight, 0 runs in 3.2 innings and 4 different guys. Price looked pretty good too. So did ERod and Pom in their most recent starts, both against the Yankees. Now, if Porcello and Sale will just come around, we might have a rotation.
  10. What the heck is Velazquez doing out there? Horrible choice. We need a guy who will strike everyone out, not somebody who gets ground outs, for crying out loud.
  11. I saw no lost run. I did see Beni K and Hanley pop up. Did I miss something?
  12. Terrible move by Vaz, but, given when the next two guys did, I'm not sure it made much difference. Don't think that came from the bench or Mookie would have gone too.
  13. Time to back Thunder for a win and another streak. Betts RF Beni LF Hanley 1B JDM DH Bogaerts SS Devers SS Nunez 2B Vazquez C The guys are rested. Price is rested and the numbness is gone. JBJ is back!!!!! Moreland needed a rest: 2 for his last 12 plus his OPS today is barely over 1.000.
  14. That last is sad but true. What we know is that he is a good athlete and somewhat versatile. But I honestly don't see a fit for him on this Sox team. I believe the people most against him catching are the pitchers. His I think two starts were as DH, which speaks volumes. On top of which, his manager is a guy who loves to use his bench to the degree that many talksoxer's have complained he does that way too much.
  15. Yes, indeed. I remember it well.
  16. My fault. I just like that stuff.
  17. About last night and the 4-2 loss in 12 innings to the Jays. I would not have sent out Sale to pitch the 9th and end up throwing 116 pitches even though he did a good job. And here's my cockamamie theory on why not. The lesser reason is the 116 pitches. The major reason is that I would have sent Johnson in to do what Johnson does best--blow it. Why? Because our guys were off last night. Mookie struck out twice and he has struck out just 17 times in 34 games this year and twice in the eight games before last night. One of our three runs was the result of a swung on wild pitch third strike that allowed the hitter Leon to get all the way to 3b and someone else to score. Our last run scored was in the 4th inning. If on the other hand, Johnson came thru, I would have kept him in the game for at least 60 pitches and maybe more to save the rest of the bullpen.
  18. Some pretty good stuff in there. Thanks, illinoisredsox.
  19. About right on all points. I don't know if they were exhausted, but they weren't "right." How do we know? Mookie has struck out 17 times in 34 games and last night struck twice. He struck out a total of two times in the 8 games immediately before last night.
  20. Sox are tied for the best record on MLB--and you know better than Cora?
  21. Sox are tied for the best record in MLB, and Cora is an idiot for not rescuing them by using Swihart? Give me a break.
  22. Really? Pretty neat, actually. Thanks. I like Hanley when he is hitting, but I hate it when he doesn't hustle. Unfortunately, right now we do need his bat. It helps that he can play a decent 1B as well as DH and that JDM can DH or play RF or LF. Right now the Sox have seven pretty good bats: Betts, Beni, Hanley, JDM, Bogie, Devers, and Moreland. When JBJ plays CF, that number goes to six.
  23. How bad is our lineup right now? I'll tell you how bad. The Sox currently are 29th out of 30 MLB teams for worst offense. If Cora doesn't do what jacksonianmarch recommends, the Sox could quickly find themselves mired in 30th place--and free jacksonianmarch's Yankees from that never to be endured cellar. Oh the shame of it. All those runs scored. Awful.
  24. All Bill James says is that WAR isn't a perfect stat, and everybody knew that. The article does point out that the MVP lately, since 2012, has the highest WAR from fangraphs. I like WAR, but I don't think it's perfect and would never follow it slavishly as the MVP voters seem to be doing. And what I like about WAR is that it at least tries to combine all the attributes--offense and defense and baserunning--of a lineup player. I also like Ken Pomeroy's NCAA basketball statistics because they are pretty good. But Pomeroy is always tinkering with them based on new information and insights. One hopes that fangraphs has the same approach because combining attributes is tricky business. On talksox, for example, we have a strong contingent of folks who believe that defense, especially "up the middle defense," which basically means catcher, 2b, SS, and CF, is so important that offensive skills at those positions are secondary if the defensive skills are roughly gold glove (or what gold glove should be). Me, I'm pretty much the opposite. I think "weak bat, good glove" is automatically a utility guy, with the possible exception of catcher. I say that, not so much because Leon and Vazquez ain't hitting much these days, but because Saltamacchia was the polar opposite--good bat, weak glove. He was our starting catcher in the wildly successful 2013 season, and the Sox flat let him go the next year by not making him a qualifying offer.
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