Maxbialystock

Astros seem to see Eovaldi's pitches a whole lot better than our guys are seeing Garcia's. Arroyo swung at at least 3 pitches out of the zone, including the last one.

Ominous start to the game. Not the tough luck on that double Kike dropped, but how hard the Astros hit Eovaldi and not how hard the Sox hit Garcia, who is throwing a lot of fastballs successfully.

The statistical evidence disagrees with you. Bogey is tied for the team lead in BB's and is 7th in K's. He is 10 for 26 when swinging on first pitches.

I'm not sure about moronic, but it definitely is a gift to the pitcher.

I always have the sound off. What's he saying/doing?

Interesting. Schwarber K put him on base. Then Kike, Raffi, and Bogey all hit the ball reasonably well and all made outs. Garcia started with almost all fastballs, but his last 3 pitches were cutter, cutter, slider (which was low and away but Bogey pulled). 12 of 13 pitches for strikes.

8 pitches by Garcia: 7 four seamers and one cutter. Well hit by Devers, but out, gamble by Schwarber that worked.

Great play by Altuve, but hard hit by Kike and a man on 2b.

You bet.

That's a good distinction because I completely agree the Sox have earned where they are and deserve the WS if they can win the next two games. Cora has been brilliant, the lineup has mostly been terrific, the starting pitching has actually been mostly good--a big surprise to me--and even the bullpen has had good moments. The second error by Schwarber was costly, but he also made a bunch of catches of throws into the dirt, especially by Arroyo and Devers. But I also like house money as representing something we fans did not expect. We hoped, especially you and Kimmi, but did not expect.

Also true. The Sox have been playing with house money since game 1 of the ALDS.

I opined Dalbec for Renfroe with Schwarber moving to LF and Verdugo to RF, but obviously I'm fine with whatever Cora decides.

Those stats don't reassure me. What does reassure me for now is our starter tonight is better than theirs, so I'm hoping the Sox get an early lead. Even better would be 6 runs, which so far has been the postseason magic number.

Forget Taylor. The key is to keep Kike in centerfield, and the fix is to bring Arroyo and Iglesias back. Especially if Schwarber returns, the Sox should have a pretty good lineup next year. So the offseason investments should be in pitching. Wednesday night Sale impressed the heck out of me, so right now I'm thinking Bloom and Cora are looking at 5 decent starters if they keep ERod and 4 if they don't: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, and Houck (especially if that splitter holds up--he needs 3 good pitches). The bullpen could definitely use some help even though that's kind of a crapshoot.

This is really well done. Bravo.

Meh. Were I Cora, I would stick with Eovaldi, Whitlock, Taylor, and Ottavino. If long relief is needed, use Pivetta and save Houck for tomorrow. If it's extra innings, however, Houck might be needed. Brasier's ERA is 9. That he has 4 holds shows how stupid that stat is. Robles' ERA is 5. Sawamura's is 4.5. None can be relied upon in a tight game for high stakes. So no way do I see them pitching tonight unless the game is a runaway or Cora runs out of arms in extra innings. FWIW, I am more than happy to say I have seen all three of them pitch extremely well this year--as have we all. So you are absolutely right that overall the bullpen has been a vital cog in this remarkable season.

About your reversal. It is possible. Eovaldi is our best, and Garcia is their worst, so the odds are good the Sox lethargic lineup will come back to life and give the Sox a lead, maybe even a good one. As my earlier post says, I also expect the Sox bullpen to be up to the task tonight, assuming Eovaldi can go 5 or 6 and not give up a bunch of runs.

See my subsequent note. My view is that Whitlock--despite his two postseason dingers, one which cost a game--Taylor, and Ottavino are the only reliable relievers, and I'm not even sure that Cora trusts Ottavino or Taylor all that much. In 10 postseason games, neither has pitched more than 3.1 innings. I do not think Cora will use Brasier, Robles, or Sawamura. All three are way too risky in close game. I do think he might use Pivetta, whose postseason ERA is an astounding 2.63 in 13.2 freaking innings.

The bullpen was excellent in the ALDS because Pivetta and Houck, both former starters, were amazing. In the ALCS, they are starters again and pretty good. But the bullpen clearly feels their absence. Whitlock, the best reliever on the team, gave up a dinger to the Yankees in the wild card, and--far, far worse--the tying dinger in the 8th to the Astros in game 4. Taylor and Ottavino both have 0.00 ERA's, but have only pitched 3.1 innings each in 10 postseason games. Whitlock's ERA is 2.16 in 8.1 innings. After those three, it's a crap shoot. Robles, Sawamura, and Brasier all remind me on the little girl with a curl: when she was good, she was very, very good; and when she was bad, she was horrid. The Astros bullpen, on the other hand, has been remarkably consistent despite having to pitch a ton of innings in the ALCS. All that said, I still see some hope, but only if the Sox lineup figures out the Astros pitching. Maybe they don't need to score 6 runs, but I can't see them winning with less than 3 runs. If they score 6 or more, I honestly don't seen how the Sox can lose. As for the pitching, I think Eovaldi needs to go 5 or 6 innings while giving up no more than 2 runs and preferably fewer. If once again--as he did in relief and thus gave up the lead off double to Correa-- he starts throwing lots of fastballs, he is a dead man. He must mix those other pitches, the ones with some break in them. Second, Taylor, Ottavino, and Whitlock need to come through again. All three can pitch again tomorrow if they win tonight. Houck starts tomorrow, but Pivetta could be available tonight or tomorrow because he only threw 65 pitches on Tuesday.

Since tonight is do or die for the Sox, I think Cora might tweak the lineup by sending Schwarber to LF, Verdugo to RF, Renfroe to the bench, and Dalbec to 1b. I don't like Dalbec that much, but Renfroe is hitless in 4 games while piling up the GIDP's. He has that great arm, but it's erratic. Schwarber, despite my claims he would be fine at 1b, has now made 2 errors in postseason, both pretty bad. Dalbec should be better at 1b and can't be much worse than Renfroe at the plate.

Good catch. I stand corrected. That said, I was talking about the bullpen. I will agree the Sox bullpen, especially Houck and Pivetta, was excellent in the ALDS. But not so much in the ALCS and especially not in comparison to the Astros bullpen. In the ALCS, the Sox bullpen has pitched 20.1 innings and given up 16 runs, and the Astros bullpen has pitched 28 innings--that's more than 5 innings per game--and given up 11 runs. Indeed, the shocker in the ALCS is that the Sox rotation has actually been pretty decent. Even Sale's truncated start in game 1--2.2 innings and 1 run--was better than the bullpen's 6.1 innings and 4 runs. Houck, Robles, and Sawamura blew that game, pure and simple. In game 2 the lineup won that game, 9-5. Eovaldi started, gave up 3 runs in 5 innings, and the bullpen gave up 2 in 4 inning. In game 3 the lineup won again, 12-3, with ERod going 6 and giving up 3 runs. In game 4, Pivetta started and went 5 innings, giving up 1 run--a great start. But the bullpen gave up 8 runs. Meanwhile the Astros starter Greinke gave up 2 runs in 1.1 innings, but the Astros bullpen shut out the Sox lineup for 7.2 freaking innings. In game 5, Sale had a pretty good start, giving up 2 earned runs in 5.1 innings--before the Sox bullpen can in and gave up 4 earned runs in 3.2 innings. Schwarber's error caused 2 unearned runs and Robles bad throw to 1b another. So, while I agree the 6 run rule I've invoked doesn't tell the whole story--you're right about that--I still think I'm right that the Sox bullpen is in disarray.

I'm worried, plain and simple. The Astros hitters now look like the Sox hitters used to and are now longer--confident. Eovaldi is starting, which could not be better for our chances, but the downside is that Cora is still going to have to go to the bullpen, which is simply unreliable. Thus have the Sox not won a postseason game without scoring 6 runs. At the same time, I am grateful for a remarkable season, filled with ups and downs and ending on an amazing high note, winning the ALDS and having a real shot at the WS, which is still within reach.

A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds. The strike zone, whose precise definition you are so obsessed with, is actually an approximation, as described in the rule book, the same rule book that gives umpires the authority to call balls and strikes. They have that authority because the variable size of the strike zone cries out for human judgment. Oh, and how about the dimensions of home plate, which is incredibly idiosyncratic? And, by the way, rectangle on your screen is invisible to everyone on the field of play. It's real--phony though it is--to us, but it is not real to anyone on the field of play. They can see the bases, the lines on the field, the stands, the backstop, the pitchers mound and rubber, the fans the ballboys/girls, even the dimensions and idiosyncrasies of the ballpark. But they can't see that rectangle, which you insist must play a dominant role in games and, along the way, emasculate umpires. As I understand it, that would be fine with you because you actually don't want any umpires out there because, heaven forbid, one of them might make a mistake. I have to ask this. I think Chris Sale is about as professional a pitcher as I've ever seen. Not the best, but very professional. He fields his position beautifully. More than that, he makes sure he is in position to field his position. He almost never shakes off his catcher. He rarely wastes time between pitches. He is incredibly focused on preparing for and executing each pitch. And he never gripes about calls by the ump. Why is that? I mean, you gripe all the time and you have nothing at stake. Do you think Sale simply doesn't care about the overall good of baseball which you insist necessitates robo-umps?

Entirely appropriate that you should do so. I certainly won't. His needle is milder than what we sometimes say about the Sox. His insights are usually pretty good or at least worth arguing about.

Reread your last sentence, which makes it clear you wrote the OP out of frustration.