Maxbialystock

No system's perfect, and the WAR folks will tell you that in a heartbeat. That's why I put in all that stuff about pitching and hitting. Who would have thunk the Pirates could score 7 runs off our ace Crochet? Or how about last night against lefty ERod who held the Sox to 1 ER in 6 innings? Lowe can't hit lefties worth a darn, but last night he tripled his first time up for the Sox only rbi against ERod.

Need a win tonight. Giolito's ERA in August was 2.39 in six starts and 37.2 IP--easily the best on the Sox. However, on August 9 @ San Diego, he gave up 4 ER in 4.2 IP. And the Diamondbacks are better hitters/scorers than San Diego and last night showed why with 10 runs and 3 dingers. Davey Johnson died. I regret I had forgotten much about him. His degree from Trinity was in mathematics and he was one of the first to apply what is now called sabermetrics in figuring out lineups, etc. In the freaking 1970's when he played for Earl Weaver he developed FORTRAN-based computer simulations to determine batting orders which Weaver happily ignored. Today everyone uses some version of sabermetrics/computer analysis pretty much routinely to determine batting orders, positioning of defensive players in the outfield and infield, how pitchers should pitch to each batter they face and what each batter should expect from a given pitcher, etc. Nevertheless, the unpredictability of baseball games is driven by the fact that hitting a round ball with a round bat squarely is difficult and can sometimes result in hard hit outs. Same goes for every pitcher who takes the mound and tries to throw the right pitch in the right part of the strike zone (or outside it) with the right spin and velocity. Right now in the AL there are realistically 9 teams out of 15 in the hunt for wild card slots and/or Division titles. And their winning percentages ranged from .500 (Guardians) to .582 (Jays). 8 freaking per cent separates the best from the 9th best. That's miniscule. In the NL it's 7%, only it's for 6 teams, not 9. The Cubs, Padres and Mets are virtual shoo-ins for the 3 wild card slots. Brewers winning percentage is .613 and both the Mets and Padres, who have pretty much nailed down the 2d and 3d wild card slots, are at .539.

As do I.

No argument with the OP's analysis. However, the simple fact is that losing the bats of both Anthony and Abreu has had an effect on the lineup. A related issue is that the Sox rotation and bullpen both looked awful last night, and pitching is the real strength of this team. Given the above, who the heck cares whether Ref plays RF or Garcia is brought up or whatever?

Sox have hit a bunch of balls hard for outs.

Meanwhile, Tolle also accumulated 4 BB's in 3 IP.

The real problem with Tolle in this game is lack of command. It's like a giant magnet in the center of the strike zone--all the Diamondbacks have to do is look for those fat pitches.

Tolle definitely tired.

That's true of every team in MLB.

Agree completely. Sox let him go just in time.

Sox are actually hitting ERod as hard as they are hitting Tolle. ERod has 65 pitches in 3 IP and Tolle 52 in 2. The look back by Narvaez cost him a step.

ERod, on the other hand, good command and a better changeup.

Horrible at bat by Story. Horrible.

Sorry. I missed it.

Meh. I think it's a good learning experience. He has been lights out in MILB, so this is the next step. Of course I want to win and beat the brains out of ERod. Great play by Rafaela!!!!! Plus Bregman called it right.

So I think that's the issue with Tolle. No command. At least, not tonight.

Tolle has thrown very few pitches low in the zone or below the zone. In fact, the overwhelming majority are in the middle of the zone.

Worth mentioning that the Diamondbacks are a good hitting team. Top 5 in runs scored and OPS.

Changeup high in the zone with very little break for a double.

Just amazing how badly Rafaela bats against lefties. Great triple by Lowe!!!!! Against a lefty too. Arizona has 8 lefty bats (4 are switch hitters) in the lineup. One can only hope Tolle's changeup is working, assuming he actually throws one.

Lots of fastballs from Tolle. Plus his control ain;'t that great.

Check the facts. He hasn't rested anyone too much. Bregman, Story, and Rafaela have been playing every day. So did Anthony before the IL. Duran missed a few starts because he stinks against lefties. The guys playing 1B and 2B "rest" only because Cora's trying to find the best matchups. Plus Hammond is awfully good on defense. Abreu has missed games because of being on the IL at least twice--plus he's a slow healer. Lowe has missed games because he stinks against lefties. Cora has been cautious with Narvaez because this is his first MLB season as the primary catcher. Please tell me about the "good performers" Cora has ignored. Claiming Cora is not serious about these final 21 games is just nonsense.

I like this lineup tonight. 7 righty bats plus Love and Duran who both have had trouble hitting lefties this season. I looked at Tolle's pitches in his first game. Lots of fastballs of course. No curves. Sliders and cutters. And, in the 3d inning, the changeup showed up. I can't remember what it looked like but no one hit it. He didn't have good command, but I hope he can use it tonight. Duran LF (.586 OPS vs lefties) Bregman 3B .900 Story SS .757 Gonzalez 2B .986 Refsnyder DH .956 Lowe 1B .222 (!!!) Eaton RF .695 Rafaela CF .699 Narvaez .748

What I've read is the Sox will retain Bregman. What's your source.

The day off should have helped everyone. Here are the OPS's for September-- Yoshida 2.000 Narvaez 1.400 Lowe 1.333 Eaton 1.292 Story 1.212 Wong 1.171 Gonzalez .923 Refsnyder .764 Rafaela .705 Duran .633 Sogard .500 Hamilton ..500 Bregman .357