Maxbialystock

Sox in the 1st looked awful, especially Dugo.

The "geeks in the nerd room" are the ones who built a system that currently enables the Rays to have the best record in MLB--granted, less than 1/3 into this season--and the 3d lowest payroll. Last year they were 86-76, in 2021 100-62, in 2019 96-66, in 2018 90-72. And so on. I do not disagree that the "man out in front" is the one making the big deals (and small ones). I have already said Bloom hadn't done that in Tampa and needs to be able to for the Red Sox, who do have the wherewithal to acquire talent as well as develop it. So Bloom might not be a good fit because the David Dombrowski Way sure worked for the 2018 team, maybe the best Sox team ever. However, as moonslav has pointed out (and I have repeated), the Sox have been lousy at developing pitching talent going back to at least 1999 and probably much further back. That's what Bloom was good at when he was with the Rays.

You keep talking about that 40 man roster, and I think you're right.

Go read the article in wikipedia, which is by no means the gospel on anything. But they do give Bloom credit as a lot more than a note taker. I'm defending him, yes, because I think JH likes what he did at Tampa. However, I also recognize that in his current position he also needs to be good at trades, making deals, and signing good talent, some of it expensive. He definitely did that with Story and Yoshida. And the $16M for Jansen ain't chump change. You cannot be the VP/honcho of baseball operations for the Sox and not be involved in and capable of making big deals. On the other hand, the Sox track record on developing pitchers, who are half of the freaking roster, is abysmal. The wikipedia article says Bloom was especially good at finding and developing pitching talent. My guess is that the Sox stopped doing that after Babe Ruth went to the Yankees.

Since the title of this thread is "A Realistic View of the 2023, Part II," I thought I would offer the following insight (if indeed it is one) into Chaim Bloom, the object of the ongoing Spanish Inquisition. This comes from wikipedia, whose writers (always unknown) give him tons of credit for making the Rays very successful at fielding good teams on low budgets. However, nowhere in there does it say Chaim Bloom was responsible for or good at "buying" players or making big/good trades. Nope. It says his forte was developing players once they came into the Rays system, and apparently he was pretty good at it, as are those who followed him. The current Rays team has the 3d lowest payroll in MLB and fields a teams with a .750 winning percentage. When the Sox played the Rays four times at the Trop, I thought the difference in skill levels--in all phases of the game (hitting, pitching, fielding, baserunning)--between the Rays and the Sox was significant. The Rays were also pretty good when CB was there, 2005-2019. The Rays hired him in 2005, and he became Director of Minor League Operations in 2008, Director of Baseball Operations in 2011, and Vice President of Baseball Operations in 2014 until coming to the Sox in 2019. 14 years. From the above, I suppose all the criticism of Bloom is merited because it's based almost entirely on his acquisitions, which he has apparently never done before. Indeed, if his 14 years with the Rays convinced him of nothing else, it convinced him that buying pitching--and paying big bucks--is money ill spent. The perfect example of that is David Price, who came up through the Rays system--the one Chaim Bloom developed--and was hugely successful, including the Cy Young in 2012 while still pitching with the Rays. Then he got the big bucks as a free agent and pitched for the Tigers and especially the Sox, where DD gave him that long term $30M/year contract. His best years were with the Rays, where his total salary from 2008 thru 2014 was just a tad over $30M. I think most everyone has read moonslav's prescient compilation of how the Boston Red Sox have been almost complete failures at developing good pitchers since 1999 and that their solution--which has worked well--was simply to buy good pitching, almost regardless of price/Price. And that, by golly, is what everyone, including moonslav, expects Bloom to do now--spend big for pitching and screw the development stuff. DD was great at that and did it without any hesitation--and produced maybe the best Sox team ever in 2018. Of course, that same team completely collapsed in 2019, but what the heck. Development takes much too long, plus it's not our money being spent on good arms.

Good catch.

Paxton vs Snell, both lefties. Paxton was solid (5 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K) in his first start in years, but Snell's ERA for May is 3.45 and he pitched 6 innings in each of those starts. The Sox hit better than the Padres, and the Padres pitch better than the Sox. However, the Padres hit lefties well, and the Sox don't. Over the last 11 games the Padres are 2-9 and the Sox are 5-6. Two games ago I assured one and all that Pivetta would lose to the Mariners at Fenway. He and the Sox won, 9-4. So you tell me what you think might happen tonight. I like where the Sox are right now, but don't like the pitching matchup.

Meh.

Completely agree genes are part of it, even a big part. But we are talking about Duran's defense, not a lifetime batting average of .344 and an unreal OPS of 1.116. And we're not even talking about Duran being as good as, say, JBJ. We just need him to be average. He's already got speed and a work ethic. Apparently--and this comes as a huge surprise to me--he even has some coaching.

Good call on fewer ALE games--the "fewer" amounts to 24 games.

My "Realistic View of 2023" is that the Sox are, very surprisingly, definitely in the hunt. And it's not luck--it's the hitting combined with now and then decent pitching which I think is about to get better. Sale, Paxton, and Bello are a good start on a rotation, and backing them up Cora can choose among Kluber, Houck, Pivetta, Whitlock (soon to come off the IL), and Crawford (also soon to come off the IL). Jansen's 2 recent blown saves notwithstanding, I think the bullpen will continue to be good, especially with Whitlock and Crawford coming off the IL. Lurking in the distance are Duvall, Story, and Mondesi, who may or may not contribute down the road. Also further injuries, heaven forbid.

The interesting thing about this discussion is that we are having it. The vast majority of talksoxers this season expected the Sox to have a losing record. I was definitely one of them. But you gotta play the games, and statistically--which very few talksoxers, including you (I think), realize--there are no big gaps between/among teams, except the 2 or 3 at the top. Try this on for size. Figure a target of 90 wins to get into the playoffs. That's a winning percentage of .556. The Sox are currently 24-20, winning percentage of .545. If they had won just one more game and were 25-19, they would be at .568, which would translate to 92 wins. As it is, .545 becomes 88 wins in a 162 game season. Last year in the American League the wild card teams won 92 games (Toronto), 86 games (Tampa), and 90 games (Seattle). In 2021 the AL wild card teams were Boston with 92 wins and NYY with 92 wins.

I'm sorry but the idea that "instincts" are genetic and therefore cannot be improved upon is just complete and utter horsehockey. Human beings are born with the capacity to read and write, but absolutely none of us can do it without some coaching/teaching. Everything we do that seems instinctual can be improved upon or, if not there at all, compensated for because the human brain is nothing if not incredibly adaptive. As for baseball players, is everyone on this board unaware that the Rays have a terrific system for not only discovering baseball talent, but also for improving it? On the other hand, moonslav has just pointed out that the Red Sox have historically--going back at least 24 years to 1999 if not further--been almost completely incapable of finding and developing good pitchers. We all know that JBJ had a terrific ability to anticipate where a ball was going, but we don't know how much of that was purely instinctual--it was in his genes--and how much was the result of a lot of practice and thought and--heaven forbid--FREAKING COACHING. Ted Williams was a great natural hitter--great eyesight and reflexes--but he was also a student of hitting and practiced it all the time. As for Duran, he's already fast. A scouting report says he has over-relied on his speed. However, the same report says he also has a terrific work ethic and should be able to improve his routes and be an average outfielder.

It was a stunning comment to me because we rarely read that coaches actually fixed something and I never heard of Kyle Hudson. There is no way, no how "and very credible" can be interpreted as sarcasm.

I like your last sentence. However, I found this interesting stat on espn: Pivetta's OPS-against is .970 the first time through a lineup.

Both points good. Interesting that right now Sale, Paxton, and Jansen all came from outside--along with Kluber, Pivetta, Whitlock, Schreiber, and Martin. Bello came from inside, and I'm not sure about Houck, Crawford, Winck, etc.

Are you kidding? I said your comment was very credible.

Hard to argue against Texas and Houston. On the other hand, the Sox are very close to both the Jays and Yankees, and there is always the hope the Orioles will falter. Also, as you and others have pointed out, CB and JH might decided to acquire an arm or two. Plus one can certainly hope that Duvall, Story, and Mondesi will actually contribute this season.

Isn't it possible that being more aggressive translates to trusting his instincts--by which I mean the brain's ability to calculate where a fly ball is going--more?

I'm left eye dominant and have no stereoscopic vision, but the brain adapts and finds ways to acquire some depth perception. So I've never had a problem shooting a basketball or tracking fly balls (in the outfield or at SS). But I always fail the stereoscopic vision test and, when playing basketball, have a problem seeing players to my right.

Stunning comment about Kyle Hudson coaching Duran on defense--and very credible.

Not really. MVP 78 is right. The Rays winning percentage is .727 and ours is .545, but we are only 8 games behind them because we are less than 1/3 into this season. Also, espn did an article about how the scheduling change this season. Teams in the same division only play each other 13 times instead of 19. So it's now clear how much better the AL East is than the other 5 divisions. Thus the Sox, dead last in the AL East, have the same winning percentage as the Twins, who lead the AL Central. A whole lot of baseball ahead of us. Right now moonslav's optimism seems justified. Thanks to Sale, Paxton, and Bello, the rotation looks almost decent, especially when Cora has 5 starters--Kluber, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, and Pivetta (now in the bullpen)--to choose from for his last 2 starters. The bullpen also looks promising, but only if Jansen is still Jansen. And the "no name" lineup has hit incredibly well without Story and Duvall.

I think Sale is the ace. But Paxton looks pretty good, and so does Bello, even when he gives up 5 freaking walks as he did last night. Backing those three up are Kluber, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, and Pivetta (now apparently moved to the bullpen). Of those five, I prefer Crawford and Houck, but won't contest differing opinions. The point is the one you've made all along--that, while the team ERA is currently 5.00 and ranked 26th in MLB, there is discernible light at the end of the tunnel we've been in. And, contrary to my assertions a few days ago, the bullpen looks pretty decent too, assuming Jansen is OK. I think $16M for a closer is insane, but he already has 9 saves, more than any Sox pitcher had last season. As for the weak defense, I consider it to be a nuisance more than a calamity. The team is hitting and scoring runs with the third best OPS and the 3d most runs scored in MLB--and that, I would argue, is job one for the lineup.

Renfroe had a great arm and 16 outfield assists in 2021. He also had 12 errors. I don't know about anyone else, but I kind of like the outfield we have right now and don't miss Renfroe one bit. When Duvall returns, it's going to be crowded out there with a left fielder, a right fielder, a lefty center fielder and a right center fielder.

Moonslav is right. The Sox have almost always stunk at developing great pitchers, and in the John Henry era they've simply bought the ones they needed--specifically for all 4 of their WS seasons. For the best season of all, 2018, DD brought in Price, Sale, Kimbrel, and Eovaldi. But the very next season the Sox collapsed, so JH fired DD, brought in CB, and maybe swore a blood oath not to pay big bucks for another starter, However, Jansen gets $16M to be our closer.