Maxbialystock

Fixing Devers would be like fixing Yogi Berra, a notorious bad ball hitter. Where you and I disagree is that you hate his defense, and I think it's OK. Same goes for Casas, who also has a negative DWAR. I think his defense his OK too. I'm pretty sure Duvall has a negative DWAR, and I'm fine with him in the outfield. How dumb is that? So I have to ask this semi-related question. What do you think of the Dodgers shifting Mookie to SS and lately to 2b even though he is a terrific right fielder and barely adequate in the infield? Isn't that what the Sox did, of which you not only disagreed but believe Kike at SS was why the Sox couldn't win?

Over on last night's game thread, I ask the question: is this Sox rotation tanking? I do not for a moment think any of them is tired because Bello leads the team in IP with 131, and that ranks him 61st in MLB pitchers. Pivetta is 2d with 109 IP--89th.

One more time. While I acknowledge that Bloom could/should have gone after pitching, I nevertheless do not understand why the rotation seems to be collapsing. Bello leads the team in IP with 131, which ranks him 61st in MLB in IP. Next is Pivetta (no longer a starter) with 109, then Crawford 103, Paxton 96, Sale 78, and Houck 76. No way, no how can any of these guys be tired. And don't forget I'm the guy who keeps yelling about 48 games with just 3 days off (which started Aug 4 is still going on). But Cora has done everything possible not to overwork the rotation--and to a degree he's done the same for the bullpen. So this time I'm asking a serious question. Is the rotation tanking?

From what I've seen (Sox down 6-0 in the 2d), it sure looks as though there was a team meeting or simply a general agreement not to win any more games.

Well, he does have a reputation for being immature, which apparently grates on Cora. But here we are on Sep 1 with just 28 games left and guess who leads the Sox in WAR with 3.5? Verdugo. Everybody on talksox is screaming about the lousy defense, but on the other hand a ton of talksoxers, including moonslav, want to dump Verdugo even though he has--by a wide margin--the best WAR in the Sox outfield. It's +1.0, which is only the 2d best among MLB right fielders. Right now no other Sox outfielder has a + DWAR. Five years ago when Mookie had his AL MVP season, his DWAR was +1.8. Right field at Fenway is one of the toughest places to defend in MLB. But somehow Dugo is comfortable out there, makes some good grabs--pretty good range--and has 11 outfield assists to 2 errors.

I'm sure you're right. And that's what worries me because I honestly think the Sox don't have any really knowledgeable scouts or coaches--with respect to pitching. And I'm basing that no doubt insane conclusion on just one pitcher--Brasier. He stunk for so badly for the Sox this season he was DFA'd. The Dodgers, who I suspect do have knowledgeable scouts and coaches, snapped him up and he has had two terrific months for them.

Ahem. Don't believe me. But, please, on your own just go and check the box scores for all the 2019 post-ASG games. If I didn't miss any, I think you will find that the Sox gave up no 9th inning runs in any of the close games they lost.

I just said I didn't like him and his showboat ways. Plus the 2018 postseason was a big deal to me if not to you. And don't try to convince me Kimbrel in 2018 was anywhere near as good as Uehara in 2013. I provided two significant data points about 2019 dgalehouse chooses to ignore. The first is that the rotation had 30 fewer quality starts in 2019 than in 2018. The second (and more important) is that in the 2d half of the 2019 season there were exactly zero blown saves in the 9th inning, which is normally the only inning in which Kimbrel or Jansen pitched/pitches. For good measure I pointed out that the closer situation in 2021--after Barnes went south on us-- was horrible, but the Sox still made it to the postseason and even got to the ALCS (without a closer).

One more time. The rotation was the bigger problem in 2019 because they produced 30 fewer quality starts than they did in 2018. Also, as I've also said, a quick look at the 2d half of the 2019 season shows that no--repeat, no--leads were lost in the 9th inning in close games. So this lack of a closer crap is just that. I also reminded you that the 2021 Sox also had closer problems and did pretty well--92 wins and getting to the ALCS. You like to boast about DD's brilliance in putting together the 2016 and 2017 Sox, but both those teams crapped out in the ALDS despite having Sale, Porcello, THE GREAT KIMBREL, ERod, Price, Barnes, Kelly--as well as Mookie, Beni, Bogey, JBJ, Moreland, Pedroia, Vazquez, Leon, etc.

It's true that JH doesn't mind changing CBO's--same goes for managers. But my take on DD is that in 2019 the Sox still had the highest payroll in MLB--but now he was going to have to spend a lot more money just to keep Mookie and replace Price and Sale while still paying their exorbitant salaries.

Meh. I never liked Kimbrel, especially after he gave up all those runs in the 2018 postseason. Plus I just took a peak at some 2018 and 2019 stats and noticed that the 2018 team had 85 quality starts and the 2019 team just 55. I also don't trust blown saves because they can happen back in the 6th inning, well before THE GREAT CLOSER gets anywhere near the mound. For example, the 2021 Sox did pretty well in the 2021 postseason and literally did not have a closer. Their one "blown save" was Houck in the 6th inning against Houston. I've just looked at the game by game schedule for the Sox for the entire 2d half of the 2019 season. I specifically looked at the 9th inning of close games and could not find a single one of those close games the Sox lost in which they gave up any freaking runs in the 9th innings. Back to you. P.S. Uehara was a fantastic closer in 2013 and worlds better than that phony Kimbrel with all those gestures.

I have to be honest and say I was fine with Sales’s contract at the time because I thought he was terrific. I still root for him. But he was one of the reasons JH has soured on big contracts for pitchers and you are right to mention him. Meanwhile Kennedy, Bloom’s boss, has said they are focused on getting pitching and more pitching.

Good find!! However, the 2011 team stunk and got Francona fired and the 2012 had Valentine at the helm. 2013-14 is, I agree, a better parallel, except that John Henry ended up bringing in his biggest spender yet, DD. This time is different. It is beyond question that bringing in CB was/is a clear signal that big spending days were/are over and the Sox are in a sea change. Thus the departures of Mookie and Bogey and no big bucks for pitchers.

On the other hand, the top three payrolls in MLB this year belong to the Mets, Yankees, and Padres. All three have losing records. The Sox have the 15th highest payroll and a winning record (so far).

Not grim at all. I've been reading talksox and learning a lot, and it's pretty clear hitting is vastly overrated. As long as we get some good defensive guys in, the Sox will be fine. Defense is the name of the game and neither of those guys--Duvall, Turner-- are much good at it. We should also dump Duran and Casas who both have negative DWAR's.

Wrong! When CB took over, the Sox had just undergone one of the truly great nosedives in Sox history. DD, not CH, presided over that collapse in 2019--after the best season in Sox history in 2018. And he did it with much the same players, less Kimbrel (who stunk in the 2018 postseason), they had in 2018--Mookie, Beni, JDM, JBJ, Bogey, Devers, Sale, Price, Eovaldi, etc, etc. The problem was the pitching collapsed in 2019. CB inherited a mess as well as an irate owner who 1) did not want to get in a bidding war with the Dodgers and other clubs to retain Mookie (and later did the same with Bogey); 2) did not want to continue offering huge contracts to starters who don't deliver; 3) wanted to do things differently from what he had been doing, which basically was leading MLB in payroll and not getting into the postseason. About #3 above. At the end of the movie Moneyball, the actor playing John Henry comments how little the A's paid per win in 2002 vs. how much the Yankees had paid--and promptly offered Billy Beane (Brad Pitt) the highest GM salary in sports to work the same magic in Boston. We all know that in fact JH has spent plenty--actually, the fans have paid because the Sox always show a profit--on players, at least until recently. So let's take a quick peek at the following scorecard. The Mets, Yankees, and Padres have the three highest payrolls in MLB and all have losing records. The Sox have the 15th highest payroll in MLB and have a winning record. I am not at all saying Cora or Bloom is perfect. Far from it. But I am saying that John Henry--far more than Chaim Bloom--made the crucial decision to do more with less and that it's too soon to say it's the disaster you claim it is. In fact, compared to the GM's (or Chief Baseball Officers) of the Mets, Yankees, and Padres, Chaim Bloom is the pick of the litter. And this. Being ranked 15th in MLB payrolls is unprecedented for the Sox in the John Henry era and probably in the last 50 years.

I love great defense--it's the poetry of baseball vs. the prose of hitting and pitching. But the simple fact is that the Sox have mostly excelled in the John Henry era because they invested most heavily in hitting and pitching. There have definitely been some good fielding Soxers at almost every position, but fielding was and is secondary to hitting. "Good field, no hit," generally applies to guys still in the minors. Do you remember the 2013 Sox team? They had two excellent fielding SS's--Stephen Drew and Jose Iglesias--and one so-so fielding SS (who actually played 3B that year), Xander Bogaerts. Guess who took over the starting SS job and held onto it for 8 freaking years? Story is a better fielder than Bogey, but some talksoxers want Bogey back because he can hit. This year Casas and Duran are fan favs--and favs on talksox too. Both have negative DWAR's, but both have OPS's over .800. Duvall, I agree, is no great shakes in CF (or RF or LF), but his OPS right now is .933 so he is going to be in that lineup. Story, on the other hand, is a good (not great) defensive SS, but we are all mad at him because we need him to hit the dang ball. And we are right. Screw the defense. This team needs to hit and especially drive runs in. And the pitching is a lot worse than the hitting. As for the defense, I agree it's probably the worst defense in MLB. Bad as it is, however, the Sox still plays errorless ball 98 freaking percent of the time, and the best defense in MLB plays errorless ball 99% of the time. I'm willing to concede those percentages don't include double play balls that only yielded one out, catchable flies/grounders that weren't, etc. But I'm not willing to concede they are more important than the pitching and hitting and the real reason why the Sox are struggling. Thus my example of Kike Hernandez, who was branded on talksox as the worst SS in the history of the MLB (I'm exaggerating, but not by much) and the real reason why the Sox were losing games. Well, guess what--Kike's gone to the Dodgers, and they have been winning like crazy since he got there. And the Sox? Despite the returns of Sale, Whitlock, Houck, and Story, the Sox are worse than when Kike was on the team.

This is just nuts. I'm sorry, but it is. The first criterion for getting to The Show is whether the player can hit. See, for example, JBJ in 2014, the year he inherited CF when Ellsbury went to the Yankees (for over $200M). Great defensive outfielder--arm and routes to the ball--but struggled at the plate, which meant he kept bouncing back and forth that season between Boston and Pawtucket. Finally he started hitting in August and stuck in Boston--and for several seasons later, including 2018. Bogey was never a great defensive SS and probably never got a single vote for a gold glove, but he sure could hit the dang ball, and that's what counts on most teams but especially the Sox who must hit (and score runs) to win. Fenway is a hitters park. Right now we are semi-nuts about Casas and Duran, both of whom have negative DWAR's but also OPS's over .800. Plus Duran is a speed merchant on the basepaths. But my favorite example is the 3 or 4 games--back when the middle infielders couldn't hit spit--when he put Turner at 2b so that Casas could play 1b, Yoshida could DH, and he could still get 3 good bats in the OF. The Sox defense right now, with or without Rafaela, is almost decent. I think it is instructive, however, that in the last six games the other teams--the Dodgers and the Astros--made all (or almost all) the errors and still won 5 out of 6 games. Why? Because their hitting and pitcher were better. Defense is a distant 3d. Did you not know that the very worst fielding team in MLB right now plays error-free baseball 98% of the time? Absolutely true. If Rafaela can hit, I'm completely in favor of keeping him in Boston, especially with Reyes on the IL.

I hope we don't go there. Don't forget the 48 games in a row with just 3 off days, today being one of them. That's a brutal schedule and still has 21 days to run. The schedule has exacerbated the Sox pitching problems. Less explicable is the problem with scoring runs because right now the Sox have some pretty decent lefty (Casas, Devers, Duran(IL), Yoshida, Dugo, McGuire) and righty (Duvall, Turner, Reyes(also IL), Wong, Refsnyder, and Story (who hasn't delivered yet)) bats. Even the fielding has improved with the return of Story. In recent series vs the Dodgers and Astros, the Sox have made far fewer errors, but lost 5 of 6 games.

Horsehockey. The 2018 Sox were the best Sox team ever, but the 2019 team disintegrated because the pitching did--and the pitching has yet to recover. moonslav has made a strong case that the Sox have always been lousy at developing pitching and therefore went out and "bought" pitching. That reached a peak when DD bought/traded for Price, Sale, Eovaldi, Kimbrel, and maybe a couple others for the 2018 team. But, then the 2019 team--which still had almost everyone, including Mookie, from 2018 except Kimbrel--collapsed. I'm almost certain JH then said, "never again," by which he meant no more long term contracts for starters. He also fired DD and hired CB. Mookie is a fantastic player. Heck, this year he's even played SS and 2B. But he can't pitch. The Angels have two fantastic players in Ohtani and Mike Trout, and they can't even make the postseason.

Of course the Sox benefitted. But we see Astros/Dodgers errors differently, as part of the game. I'm sticking with my 98% fielding percentage comment and saying talksoxers over-react to Sox errors and especially to "plays that should have been made but weren't errors."

Good decision, I think. The lineup had that one fantastic rally, then just rolled over. Jansen needed the work, but didn't need to go 2 innings.

I really don't think that's going to happen, but I also don't know what JH is thinking/planning.

Both the Dodgers and the Astros committed more errors than the Sox in the two most recent series. And those errors by opposing teams are invariably ignored by the cognescenti on talksox because they are accepted as part of the game. Errors happen. But nor for the Sox fielders--those errors are criminal offenses which cry out for justice to be served. The Sox do in fact lead MLB in errors, but their fielding percentage is still 98 freaking percent--bad as they are. Fielding--even when you plays that you/we think should have been made but were not counted as errors--have not hurt the Sox the way the hitting and pitching have.

Back then fewer teams and, more importantly, you only had to win one game in the postseason. I do my share of griping, but I have enjoyed watching this team this season. Right now the pitching and hitting are struggling. Way back in the first post moonslav said Crawford has been the ace this month--and he promptly got beaten to a pulp. That's baseball.