Maxbialystock

I'm not against aces. Far from it. As you say, they can make a big difference, especially if your goal is winning the WS. So your recitation of aces past is spot on. I picked 2021 because it was just 2 seasons ago and is therefore relevant to where the Sox are right now, because I think 93 wins in 2024 is worthwhile goal (and the WS might not be realistic), and because I see some parallels but also some big differences. And to me the two rotations, 2021 and 2023, are remarkably similar despite the plethora of injuries in 2023. Indeed, if you remove just Eovaldi from 2021, the 2023 rotation is clearly better than 2021. On the other hand, the lineups, the bats, are vastly different. The good one, 2021, had a bunch of righty bats--which, I hasten to add/emphasize, DID NOT INCLUDE MOOKIE BETTS. The not so good one, 2023, had a bunch of lefty bats. So to me it's pretty obvious the Sox need more righty bats than they had this season and that fixing that should have as much emphasis as getting one or two reliable starters. One other difference between 2021 and 2023. 2021's payroll was the 6th biggest in MLB. 2023's is ranked 15th. So, just as you have said several times, the Sox can afford to spend more to fix the pitching and hitting. And one other similarity between 2021 and 2023. Lousy defense. 2021's was ranked 29th with a team fielding percentage of .981. They committed 107 errors. The 2023 Sox finished 28th with 102 errors and a fielding percentage of .982.

As always, clear as a bell. You want starters and all else is secondary. I don't agree. For starters, let's compare the 2023 Sox to the 2021 Sox, who won 93 games, were a wild card, and made it to the ALCS. The 2021 Sox finished 5th in MLB in total runs scored. And here are the top seven bats on that team-- Devers, lefty bat, 3b: .890 OPS, 113 rbi's, 318 total bases, WAR 3.5 JDM, righty bat, DH: .867 OPS, 99 rbi's, 295 total bases, WAR 3.0 Renfroe, righty bat, RF: .816 OPS, 96 rbi's, 261 total bases, WAR 2.4 Bogey, righty bat, SS: .863 OPS, 79 rbi's, 261 total bases, WAR 4.9 Dugo, lefty bat, LF/RF: .777 OPS, 63 rbi's, 232 total bases, WAR 2.2 Kike Herndandez, righty bat, CF: .786 OPS, 60 rbi's, 229 total bases, WAR 4.9 Bobby Dalbec, righty bat, 1b: .792 OPS, 78 rbi's, 206 total bases, WAR 0.2 This year's (2023) Sox finished 11th in MLB in runs scored, which historically has guaranteed they would not make it to the postseason. And here are this year's top Sox hitters: Devers, lefty bat, 3b: OPS .851, 100 rbi's, 290 total bases, WAR 3.5 Turner, righty bat, DH/1B: OPS .800, 96 rbi's, 254 total bases, WAR 2.1 Yoshida, lefty bat, DH/LF: OPS .783, 72 rbi's, 239 total bases, WAR 1.4 Dugo, lefty bat, RF: OPS .745; 54 rbi's, 230 total bases, WAR 2.6 Casas, lefty bat, 1b/DH: OPS .856, 65 rbi's, 210 total bases, WAR 2.2 Duvall, righty bat, CF/RF: OPS .834, 58 rbi's, 170 total bases, WAR 1.5 Duran, lefty bat, CF/LF: OPS .828, 40 rbi's, 160 total bases, WAR 2.2. Ah, you might say, but the 2021 Sox had a much better pitching staff. Well, yes and no. Their team ERA was 4.24, 15th best in MLB. The 2023 Sox team ERA was 4.52, 21st in MLB. However, the lowest team ERA this season was the Brewers 3.71--so the 21st place Sox were less than 1 ER below the best staff in MLB. The lowest team ERA in 2021 was the Dodgers' 3.01, so the 15th best Sox ERA of 4.24 was more than 1 ER behind the best. Since starters are your thing, here are the top 5 starters from the 2021 Sox-- Eovaldi, 32 starts, 13 quality starts, 182 IP, ERA 3.75, WAR 4.6. ERod, 31 starts, 9 quality starts, 157 IP, ERA 4.74, WAR 1.9 Pivetta, 30 starts, 8 quality starts, 155 IP, ERA 4.53, WAR 2.6 Richards, 22 starts, 4 quality starts, 136 IP, ERA 4.87, WAR 0.2 Perez, 22 starts, 4 quality starts, 114 IP, ERA 4.74, WAR 0.5 And here are the top 6 starters for the 2023 Sox-- Bello, 28 starts, 15 quality starts, 157 IP, ERA 4.24, WAR 3.1 Crawford, 23 starts, 4 quality starts, 129 IP, ERA 4.04, WAR 2.5 Houck, 21 starts, 5 quality starts, 106 IP, ERA 5.01, WAR 1.3 Sale, 20 starts, 6 quality starts, 102 IP, ERA 4.30, WAR 1.7 Paxton, 19 starts, 8 quality starts, 96 IP, ERA 4.50, WAR 1.1 Pivetta, 16 starts, 5 quality starts, 142 IP, ERA 4.04, WAR 2.4 My take on the above is that the six in 2023 were about as good as the five in 2021--except for the quantity of starts. The 2023 "six" had 43 quality starts to 2021's "five's" 38 quality starts. I think they might have had a lower ERA too. And my point is that I think you have over-reacted to this year's pitching problem because you have ignored the effects of all those pitchers/starters on the IL as well as the daunting 4-Aug to 20 Sep schedule (48 games with just 3 days off). I think Bello, Sale, Pivetta, and Crawford would be a good start on a rotation next year. If they are healthy, they could average between 25 and 30 starts (or a total of 100 to 120 starts). If the Sox spend enough in cash/salary and prospects for one good starter, that might be enough. This would also allow the Sox to solve the biggest problem with this year's team: too many freaking lefty bats.

Kershaw lasted .1 innings while giving up 6 runs. Now it's 9-0 Diamondbacks in the 2d. Braves also lost, 3-0, to the Phillies. And the Orioles 3-2 to Rangers. Astros are the only home team in the Division Series who won the first game.

I won't be.

Meh. I've semi-adopted teams near where I was living: the Kansas Royals, the Baltimore Orioles, the Washington Senators and Nationals, and the Philadelphia Phillies. I've also seen pro football games in person, Div I basketball at Madison Square Garden and collegiate sports of all kinds (lacrosse, tennis, squash, football, basketball, soccer, etc). I even went to the World Cup in DC. And it's my opinion that the best sport to watch in person is MLB--except at Fenway Park, where the sight lines were always abysmal and the seats expensive. As for the Rays, I read that roughly 3 million people live within roughly an hour's drive of the Trop, which I think is a horrible ballpark. So it makes sense to build a good ballpark where the Trop is.

Maybe, maybe not. The 2012 Sox were dead last in the AL East and 3d from the bottom in the AL. The 2013 Sox won it all--the AL East and the WS. The woebegone 2012 Sox won 40% of their games and the triumphant 2013 Sox won 60%. The distance from the outhouse to the penthouse is 20%. Like Crash Davis (Kevin Costner) explaining the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter--just one hit a week.

He looked pretty good this year, but at 35 he is showing some frailty--92 games this year, 86 last year. I'm all for righty bats, but maybe Rafaela, Story, and Reyes/Urias are the best options for next year. Bader's hitting does not impress me--Dugo would be better.

Harrison Bader can't hit. Lifetime OPS is .703. Dugo would be better.

Some caveats about the job Bloom did. The first is that the AL East is easily the toughest division in MLB this year as it was last year and several years before. The second--which everyone on talksox either ignores or forgets--is that the season is 162 games long, which means that small differences in winning percentages are magnified in the standings. The Sox finished 4 games behind the Yankees and 23 freaking games behind the Orioles. But the Sox won 48% of their games and the Yankees 51%--so basically both teams won half their games. And the Orioles won 101 games, which is a ton, but their winning percentage was 62%. So, rounding off, the Orioles won 6 out of every 10 games they played, and the Sox won 5 out of 10. Third is the payroll. Since Chaim Bloom took over as CBO of the Sox he has been captain of the starship enterprise, boldly going where no Red Sox CBO has gone in at least 40 years--trying to cobble together a winning team with the 15th biggest payroll in MLB. No Sox CBO has ever done that--at least, not in the JH era--so why should he be expected to? I have no heartburn with Chaim Bloom being fired. This Sox team has been a disappointment, and someone has to be the fall guy. Who better than the Chief of Baseball Operations?

I'd forgotten about the 4 years of control (pre-arb and arb).

Too many lefty bats in the outfield--Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Abreu--when the Sox need righty power and already have Casas and Devers, both lefty bats, anchoring the infield. This year's one righty bat was Turner. Duvall didn't play enough, which is standard for him--plus he's 35. For next year we have Story and presumably Rafaela. I would not spend big to keep Turner or Duvall.

Dalbec's WAR for 2021 was 0.2. Duran's this year was 2.2. Huge difference. Nevertheless, your point is valid. Sox need another good year from Duran before signing him longer term.

Agree on the $80M, but you gotta like that .828 OPS, the speed on the basepaths, and the 2.2 WAR. You are always touting Refsnyder, but his WAR is a measly 0.4, he can't hit freaking righties, and his DWAR is -0.3 compared to Duran's -0.4. The Sox need some good righty bats, but Refsnyder ain't one, not when he can't hit righties.

It doesn't seem that way to me. Explain.

Talk of Ohtani is silly because, as moonslav explained, he's a very bad fit for the Sox, who need pitching and righty bats and don't need another DH.

First time I've read that 2.0 is average, but I'm fine with it. Sox had 6 above average players this season-- Devers 3.5 Dugo 2.6 Casas 2.2 Duran 2.2 Wong 2.2 Turner 2.1 2018 Sox (best Sox team ever) had just 5 "above average" players, so I include their OPS's-- Betts 10.9 (1.078) JDM 6.4 (1.031) Beni 3.9 (.830) Bogey 3.8 (.883) JBJ 2.1 (.717)

One more time, here are the games played by the top 8 (in games played) players on the 2018 Sox, the best Sox team ever and one of the best MLB teams ever-- JDM 150 Beni 148 JBJ 144 Betts 136 (won AL MVP) Bogey 136 Nunez 127 Moreland 124 Devers 121 As I also said before, some of those low numbers, like Mookie's 136 games, were the result of both injuries and rest days. Nevertheless, they were in fact missed games. It is therefore unarguable that missed games, whether because of injury or for rest, do not prevent a team from playing well. I hasten to add that the Atlanta Braves prefer to play their best players in every possible game, and clearly that works for them.

Thanks for the correction. So I guess that's kind of a clean sweep. Every Sox starter this year spent time on the IL or in the bullpen. I think this also confirms what a lousy manager Cora was this season. How could he have let that happen?

JBJ was up and down (between Pawtucket and Boston) like a yo-yo in 2014. But his lousy hitting was in tune with his teammates. Here are OPS's of the 7 Sox with the most innings played: Ortiz .873; Pedey .712; Bogey .660; Napoli .789; Holt .711; Nava .706; JBJ .531.

Of course he didn't. That's the point. This season mirrors 2012 in that the rotation was a shambled. Bello is the only starter who didn't go on the IL (nor was relegated to the bullpen--Pivetta). When 2013 rolled around, however, the Sox didn't just have Lackey. They also had Lester and--surprise, surprise--Clay Buchholz, who went completely ape in the first three months with 13 quality starts in 16 total starts. That year Lester had 20 quality starts and Lackey 19. Plus Koji Uehara in the bullpen. The pitching was transformed--and that carried over into the postseason. I don't see that happening in 2024, but agree with the consensus that job one is to fix the rotation. Bello with 15 quality starts in his rookie season is a good start. I think the Sale comeback this year, despite missing over 2 months, was promising. He was fantastic in May (4 starts, 26.2 innings, 3 quality starts, ERA 2.42) and almost decent in September (5 starts, 25 innings, ERA 2.88) when he ratcheted down his fastball to the low 90's. He turns 35 in March, but he basically rested 3 seasons, 2020-22. I think he could go 150 innings next year and just maybe 15 quality starts. So theoretically the new Sox management only needs to get one quality starter for next year. Two would be better, but the Sox also need to make other fixes. My biggest concern is with righty bats. Story needs to come around, but they also need at least one more .800 OPS righty bat.

2012 Sox were the pits: 69-93. The next year the Sox won the WS.

This season 58 MLB pitchers went 150 or more innings--or about 2 per team. The Sox had one, Bello with 157 innings. Some simple math is revealing. 30 starts is a good season: 37 MLB pitchers, roughly one per team, had 30 or more starts this season. And 5 innings per start is, if not great, pretty close to standard, if only because of the statistical phenomenon that hitters get awfully tough the 3d time they face a starter in the same game. On the other hand, a quality start requires 6 or more innings with 3 or fewer earned runs scored against. 28 MLB pitchers this year had 15 or more quality starts--and Bello was one of them. So to me the new CBO/GM's job is simple. Get a starter who is likely to achieve 15 or more quality starts in a season. However, I hasten to add that none of the following MLB pitchers had 15 quality starts this season: Wacha, Eovaldi, Ohtani, Verlander, Scherzer, ERod, Kershaw.

I don't know jack about analytics, but I do know this. In 2018 the Sox had their best season ever--108 wins plus winning 11 of 14 games in the postseason. That was one of the best seasons any MLB team has had. Here are the games played by the top 8 players (in terms of games played) of the 2018 Sox-- JDM 150 Benintendi 148 JBJ 144 Betts (won AL MVP) 136 Bogey 136 Nunez 127 Moreland 124 Devers 121 I'm pretty sure that some of those low numbers, like Mookie's 136 games, were the result of both injuries and days off. Nevertheless, they were missed games and, based on how freaking spectacular the Sox were in 2018, it is unarguable that missed games did not adversely affect the Sox and may even have helped. The 2021 Sox weren't nearly as talented as the 2018 Sox, but they managed to get to the postseason with 93 wins and then to the ALCS before losing to the Astros. Here are the games played by the top 8 Sox players in 2021-- Devers 156 JDM 148 Verdugo 146 Renfroe 144 Bogey 144 Vazquez 138 Kike 134 Dalbec 133 As I have said elsewhere, the Atlanta Braves have the opposite philosophy. They want their best players to play as many games as possible. And I think that works for them.

I didn't say average. I said adequate--his DWAR was -0.5, which is OK with me. Funny thing is, we are almost in concert because you also recognize the best choice for DH next year isn't Devers or Casas, but Yoshida. What I do not want is for the Sox to go after a guy like Chapman, who's older and doesn't hit as well as Devers. They should should spend their money on starters and maybe a couple of good righty bats.

I think his D is adequate. He led the team in assists this year by a huge margin--also in innings played in the field (on defense). So, even though Devers was the Sox best hitter this year, I want his OPS, dingers, rbi's, and total bases all to improve next year. He also played more games than any other Sox player this year--153--so I will be fine if he can equal that next year.