Maxbialystock

You do understand I'm being a pissant.

Interesting. Kluber's WAR is -0.9, which means he cost the Sox 1 fewer wins than they would have had from the average MLB player/pitcher. That's actually a lot in terms of his only having played 55 innings, but does show he didn't do as much damage as most claim he did. I've harped on the fact that this year in all games, pretty much regardless of the starter, the Sox need to score 5 runs to have a good chance of winning. This was the case with Kluber. The Sox won every game he pitched in and in which they scored 5 or more runs--and lost every game in which he pitched and the Sox scored fewer than 5 runs.

You have no peer with the numbers. I think "lead the league in hits with RISP that do not produce actual runs" could be the result of lousy baserunning. Other teams routinely score from 1b on a double, but with the Sox it's a rarity. Same goes for scoring from 2d on a single--forget it if there aren't 2 outs. And, if it's Casas, forget it if there are 2 outs. This reminds me of Al Schact's autobiography, in which he relates a mostly true story: the 1926 Brooklyn Dodgers actually had three men end up on 3d base. Bases were loaded when Babe Herman hit one off the wall. Runner on 3d scores, but the guy on 2b was the pitcher who believed the ball would be caught and stayed on 2b until he saw it carom of the wall. By then it was too late for him to get home, so he parked at 3d base and was soon joined (or almost joined) by the guy on 1b and the batter Babe Herman. I think Herman didn't actually touch 3d base, but both he and the guy from 1b were tagged out between 2d and 3d base.

I have always defended Cora resting guys, but get nervous when you and moonslav (and others) emphatically disagree. Sunday before the ASG is a good point. Nevertheless, one more time with the 2018 season, easily the best season (108 wins) and postseason (11-3) in Sox history. Here are the games played (with their WAR's in parentheses) by the 2018 Sox twelve regulars/semi-regulars-- JDM 150 (6.4) Beni 148 (3.9) JBJ 144 (2.1) Mookie 136 (10.9) Bogey 136 (3.8) Nunez 127 (-1.1) Moreland 124 (0.9) Devers 121 (0.0) Holt 109 (1.3) Leon 89 (-0.5) Swihart 82 (-0.3) Vazquez (-0.8) The above games played are obviously not all the result of Cora's machinations. Injuries obviously played a role. Nevertheless, the actual games played by the top twelve do make the case that perhaps less is more.

I don't think it's luck, so I agree with you. But I am also very suspicious of the Sox system for analyzing and coaching pitchers. Exhibit A is Brasier, who was an unmitigated disaster with the Sox and consequently DFA'd. Yes, DFA'd. The Dodgers grabbed him and he has been fantastic for them.

Bello leads all Sox pitchers--by a wide margin--in innings pitched and WAR, so I think whatever he is doing is more real than luck. Fielding Independent Pitching is a neat stat, but, like WAR, not necessarily definitive. My thought is that Bello bears down more with RISP.

Interesting. First time I've read anything this comprehensive/detailed, and I think you just might have nailed it. The "CBO" for the Dodgers also came from the Rays system. The Dodgers currently have the best attendance in MLB, 48K/game, and it's 6K/game more than the 2d place Yankees. So their owners are capable of spending a whole lot of money for players--just like JH could and has for the Sox. But in fact the Dodgers payroll is currently 6th in MLB and $104M less than the Mets.

Murphy was terrific in July--18.1 IP, ERA 1.45--and just awful this month. Same for Llovera: 6.1 IP and a 1.42 ERA in July, and 11.2 IP and a 6.17 ERA in August.

First of all, jgar658 is shamelessly plagiarizing because I brought up the same two points a couple of days ago. moonslav pointed out that historically Kike's best hitting has been in August. The Brasier transformation, on the other hand, does seem to suggest the Sox pitching coaches are clueless because Brasier has been stunningly good for two months for the Dodgers after being terrible for two months with the Sox. I also claim--with zero proof--that the first base coach failed to remind Wong (when he came in as a pinchrunner in the 8th inning of the first game in this series) to be cautious about rounding 2d base because Casas was on 2d base ahead of him and very slow. Wong did the exact opposite and roared around 2d base like he was sure he could get to 3d base and even home.

Pretty good prediction about using the bullpen as little as possible today. Murphy has been awful, but Cora doesn't want to send more guys out there in a lost cause. I say "lost" because the hitting is moribund.

Yeah. He meant me. I had/have the temerity to defend lazy, immature, no-good, low-down Alex Verdugo. You know he's worthless when he wears that stupid gold chain when he's on the field. Oh, wait.

Yes, but you also don't like our best (by a wide margin) defensive outfielder who also has the highest WAR on the team. That said, I think we fundamentally disagree on the value of defense. MLB is dominated by pitching and hitting. Thus exhibit A for the nondefense is Kike Hernandez, your favorite example of how disastrous the Sox defense has been this season. As I've already pointed out with the simplest of stats, the Sox had a better winning percentage in games Kike played than they have since he left. Exhibit B is that right now middle infield defense is almost decent with Story/Reyes at SS and Reyes/Urias at 2B. But as always it's the hitting and pitching that win or lose games as is very clearly the case in the Dodger series. They have 4 errors to our 0 but they are outhitting the dickens out of the Sox and will likely take this series, 2 games 1 because Murphy--not, repeat, not the Sox defense--is terrible today. And so is the lineup (so far).

Like I've said repeatedly this season, the hitters need to bring home 5 or more runs in any game they want to win. This is especially true during this slog of 48 games with just 3 days off.

Agree (of course) on the first part. He stunk in the outfield before moving to RF, where he has found his kaffi. His fielding style is like his batting style--almost casual, but definitely effective. If Cora doesn't like his attitude, I'm with Cora, but he does have the highest WAR on the team.

I knew about the HBP and was concerned at the time, but he stayed in the game and went to first base. No question we need him.

I was being facetious/sarcastic. Please answer this very simple question. Why do the Sox (and all other MLB teams) have a first base coach if not to communicate with the baserunner on first base should there be an opportunity to do so as there in fact was? The fact that you agree it was not a simple situation--Wong needed to move with alacrity on any hit ball but then needed to be cautious because Casas is slow--cries out for the first base coach to say something. But you insist that nothing of the kind was needed--or, if it was, it was nevertheless too complicated to communicate "two outs, so run on anything, but round 2d base cautiously unless you know Casas is going home."

Hah. Not far off base, but I do like Abreu instead of Yoshida. As for Urias at 3b, I see once against that Cora is resting someone who should never, ever be rested. If Turner or Duvall ever get rested, I suppose Cora should be fired for "failure to use all available resources."

It's funny about talksox and and the unending complaints about the crappy defense, worst in the history or MLB, the real reason why the Sox aren't 20 games above .500, etc. Yes, I'm exaggerating. But when we have a good outfielder like Verdugo, the fielding is forgotten and it's all about how he hits. Right now Dugo has the highest WAR on the team +3.7, and he's just not good enough.

Kluber was one freaking guy and vastly over-emphasized in this discussion. So forget freaking Kluber and remember two key points. First are all those injuries and the subsequent return of Sale, Story, Whitlock, and Houck--kind of like the cavalry coming to the rescue. Second, however, is playing 48 freaking games from August 4 to September 20 with just 3 off days. That's just a killer schedule and we are now 3+ weeks into it. So of course the pitching staff is stressed. And that's why I keep harping on the lineup scoring runs. Simply stated, they need to score 5 runs in any game they hope to win. With the exception of Yoshida, I don't think any of them are tired--not even 39 year old Turner. Duran isn't missed that much because he was in a slump anyway. Duvall is really coming on, and Story just might be about to--and I think those righty bats (also Turner, Reyes, and even Wong) are key.

I blame the first base coach for Wong overrunning 2b. After the game, Wong and Cora were both interviewed by the sportswriters and both said it was Wong's fault. However, neither mentioned the first base coach, nor was he interviewed. So I'm convinced they were covering for him. That situation--2 outs, men on 1st and 2d, Dugo at bat with Devers behind him, 8th inning--cried out for first base coach involvement. What the hell is he out there for if not to remind his pinch runner (Wong) that 1) he should go on any hit ball, 2) but with slowpoke Casas in front of him, he should not make an aggressive turn at 2b until he knows Casas is heading for home, 3) getting to 2b would load the bases for Devers. Lots of times, I agree, baserunners need to make decisions on their own based on what they see and can anticipate. Not always easy, but doable. But this was different and cried out for first base coach involvement because, with two outs Wong needs to run on anything, but on the other hand he must be cautious at 2b because of slowpoke Casas, to say nothing of the rifle arm (Mookie) now in right field. To me there is absolutely no way, no how the first base coach did any of the above and Wong simply ignored him or forgot what he said.

Good point. That said, righty batters tend to do OK against righty pitchers. So, for example, Duvall's OPS vs righties is .904, Turner's is .808, Wong's is .776, etc. The middle infielders--Story, Reyes, and Urias--are all righty hitters anyway. The Dodgers bullpen has a good mix of both righty and lefty relievers, so, were I Cora, I would probably start more righty bats than lefty. I kind of like last night's lineup (Dugo, Turner, Ref, Devers, Duvall, Story, Reyes, Urias, Wong), but would probably put Yoshida in LF (replacing Ref), and start Story at SS and Urias at 2B with Reyes dropping out. I'd also move Turner to DH and start Casas at 1b.

I'm never on the players side, not that I don't think Mookie is a great, great player and was a joy to have playing for the Sox. So of course he should be well compensated. But who's kidding whom? $30M/year goes beyond the needs of avarice. I'm in my 80's and my after tax income is an insanely luxurious $135K/year. My wife and I want for nothing. Furthermore, I do not for a moment believe that billionaire owners pay all those big player salaries. Nosiree. They still want to show a profit, so the cost of those gargantuan salaries are passed along to us fans. Thus, for example, the insane blackout restrictions on watching games on MLB.com, to say nothing of letting Apple and now that other outfit purchase some of those games from MLB and then charge us subscribers (to mlb.com/tv) extra if we want to watch a Sox game we guilelessly thought we'd already paid for. Goodness knows what the ticket prices are these days. What's a hot dog at the game cost these days? And haven't MLB teams cut back on their minor league teams because they're just unaffordable to those billionaire owners? When Curt Flood blew away the reserve clause, he did the right thing for all future MLB players, most of whom were underpaid (under the Reserve Clause). But since then the MLBPA and especially the agents--all fully supported by the networks, the commentators, the sportswriters, et al who vehemently insist good players today are still underpaid and that no salary is too high--have in my opinion gone too far in the other direction.

Meh But huge congrats on a crucial win!!!!!

I did not say the odds are in our favor. Far from it. But it's freaking August, and the history of MLB tells us that we need to get well into September before deciding it's over. But let's get to the specifics. There are three AL wild card slots. With this win the Sox are 3 games out of the 3d slot (held by the Astros), and 4 games out of the 2d slot (held by the Rangers). That's pretty good, I think. But I would be negligent if I didn't add that 5 pretty good teams vying for those 3 slots--Rays, Rangers, Astros, Blue Jays, and, yes, our Sox. That's a lot and means the Sox must beat out two of those other four teams. I forgot one other factor. On August 4 the Sox played their first of 48 games in a row with just 3 days off. That's pretty tough on a pitching stuff, and I think that's a big part of their struggles.

8 walks by the Sox pitchers in this game to go with the 10 hits. So far in this series there is little evidence the Sox pitching staff is decent. Great freaking fantastic win, however!!!