Maxbialystock

Maybe, maybe not. The 2012 Sox were dead last in the AL East and 3d from the bottom in the AL. The 2013 Sox won it all--the AL East and the WS. The woebegone 2012 Sox won 40% of their games and the triumphant 2013 Sox won 60%. The distance from the outhouse to the penthouse is 20%. Like Crash Davis (Kevin Costner) explaining the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter--just one hit a week.

He looked pretty good this year, but at 35 he is showing some frailty--92 games this year, 86 last year. I'm all for righty bats, but maybe Rafaela, Story, and Reyes/Urias are the best options for next year. Bader's hitting does not impress me--Dugo would be better.

Harrison Bader can't hit. Lifetime OPS is .703. Dugo would be better.

Some caveats about the job Bloom did. The first is that the AL East is easily the toughest division in MLB this year as it was last year and several years before. The second--which everyone on talksox either ignores or forgets--is that the season is 162 games long, which means that small differences in winning percentages are magnified in the standings. The Sox finished 4 games behind the Yankees and 23 freaking games behind the Orioles. But the Sox won 48% of their games and the Yankees 51%--so basically both teams won half their games. And the Orioles won 101 games, which is a ton, but their winning percentage was 62%. So, rounding off, the Orioles won 6 out of every 10 games they played, and the Sox won 5 out of 10. Third is the payroll. Since Chaim Bloom took over as CBO of the Sox he has been captain of the starship enterprise, boldly going where no Red Sox CBO has gone in at least 40 years--trying to cobble together a winning team with the 15th biggest payroll in MLB. No Sox CBO has ever done that--at least, not in the JH era--so why should he be expected to? I have no heartburn with Chaim Bloom being fired. This Sox team has been a disappointment, and someone has to be the fall guy. Who better than the Chief of Baseball Operations?

I'd forgotten about the 4 years of control (pre-arb and arb).

Too many lefty bats in the outfield--Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Abreu--when the Sox need righty power and already have Casas and Devers, both lefty bats, anchoring the infield. This year's one righty bat was Turner. Duvall didn't play enough, which is standard for him--plus he's 35. For next year we have Story and presumably Rafaela. I would not spend big to keep Turner or Duvall.

Dalbec's WAR for 2021 was 0.2. Duran's this year was 2.2. Huge difference. Nevertheless, your point is valid. Sox need another good year from Duran before signing him longer term.

Agree on the $80M, but you gotta like that .828 OPS, the speed on the basepaths, and the 2.2 WAR. You are always touting Refsnyder, but his WAR is a measly 0.4, he can't hit freaking righties, and his DWAR is -0.3 compared to Duran's -0.4. The Sox need some good righty bats, but Refsnyder ain't one, not when he can't hit righties.

It doesn't seem that way to me. Explain.

Talk of Ohtani is silly because, as moonslav explained, he's a very bad fit for the Sox, who need pitching and righty bats and don't need another DH.

First time I've read that 2.0 is average, but I'm fine with it. Sox had 6 above average players this season-- Devers 3.5 Dugo 2.6 Casas 2.2 Duran 2.2 Wong 2.2 Turner 2.1 2018 Sox (best Sox team ever) had just 5 "above average" players, so I include their OPS's-- Betts 10.9 (1.078) JDM 6.4 (1.031) Beni 3.9 (.830) Bogey 3.8 (.883) JBJ 2.1 (.717)

One more time, here are the games played by the top 8 (in games played) players on the 2018 Sox, the best Sox team ever and one of the best MLB teams ever-- JDM 150 Beni 148 JBJ 144 Betts 136 (won AL MVP) Bogey 136 Nunez 127 Moreland 124 Devers 121 As I also said before, some of those low numbers, like Mookie's 136 games, were the result of both injuries and rest days. Nevertheless, they were in fact missed games. It is therefore unarguable that missed games, whether because of injury or for rest, do not prevent a team from playing well. I hasten to add that the Atlanta Braves prefer to play their best players in every possible game, and clearly that works for them.

Thanks for the correction. So I guess that's kind of a clean sweep. Every Sox starter this year spent time on the IL or in the bullpen. I think this also confirms what a lousy manager Cora was this season. How could he have let that happen?

JBJ was up and down (between Pawtucket and Boston) like a yo-yo in 2014. But his lousy hitting was in tune with his teammates. Here are OPS's of the 7 Sox with the most innings played: Ortiz .873; Pedey .712; Bogey .660; Napoli .789; Holt .711; Nava .706; JBJ .531.

Of course he didn't. That's the point. This season mirrors 2012 in that the rotation was a shambled. Bello is the only starter who didn't go on the IL (nor was relegated to the bullpen--Pivetta). When 2013 rolled around, however, the Sox didn't just have Lackey. They also had Lester and--surprise, surprise--Clay Buchholz, who went completely ape in the first three months with 13 quality starts in 16 total starts. That year Lester had 20 quality starts and Lackey 19. Plus Koji Uehara in the bullpen. The pitching was transformed--and that carried over into the postseason. I don't see that happening in 2024, but agree with the consensus that job one is to fix the rotation. Bello with 15 quality starts in his rookie season is a good start. I think the Sale comeback this year, despite missing over 2 months, was promising. He was fantastic in May (4 starts, 26.2 innings, 3 quality starts, ERA 2.42) and almost decent in September (5 starts, 25 innings, ERA 2.88) when he ratcheted down his fastball to the low 90's. He turns 35 in March, but he basically rested 3 seasons, 2020-22. I think he could go 150 innings next year and just maybe 15 quality starts. So theoretically the new Sox management only needs to get one quality starter for next year. Two would be better, but the Sox also need to make other fixes. My biggest concern is with righty bats. Story needs to come around, but they also need at least one more .800 OPS righty bat.

2012 Sox were the pits: 69-93. The next year the Sox won the WS.

This season 58 MLB pitchers went 150 or more innings--or about 2 per team. The Sox had one, Bello with 157 innings. Some simple math is revealing. 30 starts is a good season: 37 MLB pitchers, roughly one per team, had 30 or more starts this season. And 5 innings per start is, if not great, pretty close to standard, if only because of the statistical phenomenon that hitters get awfully tough the 3d time they face a starter in the same game. On the other hand, a quality start requires 6 or more innings with 3 or fewer earned runs scored against. 28 MLB pitchers this year had 15 or more quality starts--and Bello was one of them. So to me the new CBO/GM's job is simple. Get a starter who is likely to achieve 15 or more quality starts in a season. However, I hasten to add that none of the following MLB pitchers had 15 quality starts this season: Wacha, Eovaldi, Ohtani, Verlander, Scherzer, ERod, Kershaw.

I don't know jack about analytics, but I do know this. In 2018 the Sox had their best season ever--108 wins plus winning 11 of 14 games in the postseason. That was one of the best seasons any MLB team has had. Here are the games played by the top 8 players (in terms of games played) of the 2018 Sox-- JDM 150 Benintendi 148 JBJ 144 Betts (won AL MVP) 136 Bogey 136 Nunez 127 Moreland 124 Devers 121 I'm pretty sure that some of those low numbers, like Mookie's 136 games, were the result of both injuries and days off. Nevertheless, they were missed games and, based on how freaking spectacular the Sox were in 2018, it is unarguable that missed games did not adversely affect the Sox and may even have helped. The 2021 Sox weren't nearly as talented as the 2018 Sox, but they managed to get to the postseason with 93 wins and then to the ALCS before losing to the Astros. Here are the games played by the top 8 Sox players in 2021-- Devers 156 JDM 148 Verdugo 146 Renfroe 144 Bogey 144 Vazquez 138 Kike 134 Dalbec 133 As I have said elsewhere, the Atlanta Braves have the opposite philosophy. They want their best players to play as many games as possible. And I think that works for them.

I didn't say average. I said adequate--his DWAR was -0.5, which is OK with me. Funny thing is, we are almost in concert because you also recognize the best choice for DH next year isn't Devers or Casas, but Yoshida. What I do not want is for the Sox to go after a guy like Chapman, who's older and doesn't hit as well as Devers. They should should spend their money on starters and maybe a couple of good righty bats.

I think his D is adequate. He led the team in assists this year by a huge margin--also in innings played in the field (on defense). So, even though Devers was the Sox best hitter this year, I want his OPS, dingers, rbi's, and total bases all to improve next year. He also played more games than any other Sox player this year--153--so I will be fine if he can equal that next year.

He got $365M, and I'm reasonably sure the Dodgers were prepared to go higher if JH decided to compete. Any discussion of $300M is just silly, and I say that while being fairly sure that, all things being equal, Mookie wanted to stay in Boston. But things weren't equal, not by a long shot.

Lead by example, you say? Let's see, now. Rafael Devers this year led the Sox in Wins Above Replacement, games played, runs scored, rbi's, dingers, and total bases. He was second in OPS, walks, and doubles. Do you ever read what you write, or do you simply have a problem with the English language?

Lead by example, you say? Let's see, now. Rafael Devers this year led the Sox in games played, runs scored, rbi's, dingers, and total bases. He was second in OPS, walks, and doubles. Do you ever read what you write, or do you simply have a problem with the English language?

2023 had bad bats, bat pitching, and bad defense. Specifically, for the Sox bats to be good--good enough to make the postseason--the Sox need to rank in the top 5 in MLB in runs scored. This year they were 11th. In the 21 seasons of the JH era, the Sox have never been to the postseason ranked 11th in runs scored. Cut off for pitching is easier--16th in team ERA--but this year the Sox were 21st in team ERA. 2021 Sox were 14th; 2018 Sox were 8th; 2017 Sox were 4th; 2016, 9th; 2013, 14th; 2009, 16th; 2008, 9th; 2007, 2d; 2004, 11th. One glaring exception was the 2005 Sox, whose team ERA was 25th in MLB. They won 95 games, went to the postseason, and were swept in the ALDS in 3 games by the White Sox: 14-2, 5-4, and 5-3. I can find no correlation between the Sox defense and getting to the postseason. For example, the 2021 Sox made it to the ALCS and were 29th in fielding percentage. In 2017 they were 26th.

So true. You can look it up: the Sox never went anywhere with a team full of good bats. Good hit, no field is a recipe for disaster.