Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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I'm not convinced that the Sox needed a closer. They needed a lot of BP help, but Koji and Tazawa would probably be fine in their closer and set up roles. Even if they did need a closer, I think we could have found one who is would be just as effective as Kimbrel for much cheaper.
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Let me first say again that I do agree that our team is better with Kimbrel, and that it's not just in the closer's role, but that it lengthens the bullpen to the 7th inning. I have no issue with having Kimbrel on our team. I am happy with that. As far as Kimbrel's decline goes, there has been a slight downward trend since 2012. It is not one that I am overly concerned with, but it does exist. Here are some of his stats from 2012 to 2015: ERA: 1.01, 1.21, 1.61, 2.58 FIP: 0.78, 1.93, 1.83, 2.68 WAR: 3.3, 2.2, 2.2, 1.5 K%: 50.2, 38.0, 38.9, 36.4 BB%: 6.1, 7.8, 10.7, 9.2 HR/9: .43, .54, .29, .91 BAA: .126, .166, .139, .185 WHIP: .65, .88, .91, 1.04
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Dave Cameron at Fangraphs gave some nice perspective on this. In his opinon, he felt that trading Margot alone for Kimbrel would have been a deal worth making for the Padres. He goes on to compare the Kimbrel trade with the trade the Angels made for Simmons. In his opinion, the Sox gave up quite a bit more for a one inning reliever than the Angels gave up for a 26 year old above average SS. Simmons was a 3.2 WAR player last year, and he is under contract until 2020 at a very reasonable price.
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You are right on both counts. Our major league team got better, but at an awfully steep price.
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Bingo.
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Nowhere have I denied that we're getting a quality reliever. Nowhere have I said that I'm unhappy about having Kimbrel on the team. In fact, I'm glad to have him and have said so more than once. I am not pessimistic about the deal in terms of the outlook for the Red Sox. All I'm saying is that Dombrowksi could have made better use of those resources.
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Yes, it has changed, but to what extent remains to be seen. This trades seemingly means that the Sox will be handing out a large contract to a pitcher over 30. Another change in philosophy. If Dombrowski keeps the rest of the farm mostly intact, and continues to prioritize long term goals as well as short term goals, then I will be happy with the direction he is taking the team. I do not want to see the "win now at any cost mentality", at the expense of the future.
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SK, as always, spot on posts in this thread.
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It's really not a difficult concept to understand.
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No one here is suggesting that the team stay status quo. No one here is suggesting that we don't give up any prospects. Everyone here understands that we have an abundance of prospects, some of whom are blocked, and that they are a valuable trade asset. Everyone here understands that we needed bullpen help and that Kimbrel will help the team. The issue is with the value of what we gave up versus what we got back. Dombrowski did not make the best use of those assets.
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I understand that, as do all GMs. I am not pained by the prospects being gone or by Kimbrel being here. I am pained by the lopsidedness of the deal. No worries, I'll get over it, because it did make our team better. And if we sign Price to a $200 mil contract, that will be painful as well, but I'll get over that as well.
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I don't disagree with any of this. That doesn't change what I said.
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I am happy that we got better. We absolutely needed to trade some prospects to make our team better. I don't think anyone is arguing against trading prospects, especially those that are blocked. The dislike in the trade is the potential value given up versus the value we got back. I know that some of the prospects will never reach that potential, but that should not diminish their value when making a trade.
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Well according to Fangraphs, Kimbrel was worth 1.5 WAR or $12 mil. We will be paying that in salary alone next year, not to mention the 4 prospects given up. I do not underestimate the importance of a strong bullpen, and I quoted Kimbrel's WAR somewhat tongue in cheek. I know having a strong BP is important. I just think that a very strong BP can be put together at a much cheaper cost. I have always been against paying a lot for relievers. I just think there are better ways to use your resources, as good relievers can be found very cheaply. I was also not happy with Koji's $9mil a year. As I've said, I'm glad that we have Kimbrel. I just wish it didn't cost us so much.
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I understand the desire and the benefits of making early moves, but if this is the most comfortable price Dombrowski could get, perhaps showing some patience would have been the way to go here. Again, I have no problem with trading prospects. Ben (and Theo) were probably a little too attached to them. I just don't want to watch Dombrowski become reckless with our farm system, just because he can. Not saying that he will do that, but he did not make very good use of his resources in that trade, IMO.
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I understand that part of the reason for building a farm is to have the pieces to trade. We can't possibly play all of the prospects, and Margot and Guerra were blocked anyway. I understand all that and I have no problem with Dombrowski trading these guys to fill a need. What I have a problem with is the steep price. Just because the Sox have the pieces and just because those prospects likely don't have a place on the Sox doesn't mean that you give them away for nothing. Yes, I know Kimbrel is far from nothing. I just think Dombrowski could have gotten Kimbrel for less, or he could have gotten better value back for what he gave up. That's all.
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I am not opposed to Dombrowski trading away some prospects. It has to be done and I understand that. I am not opposed to any of the particular prospects that were traded being traded. But that doesn't mean you give them away for less than they are worth.
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It is too bad for him, that he built such a terrific farm system, and he will not be here to see the fruits of his labor.
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Somewhere, Ben is rolling over in his proverbial grave.
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Thank goodness. Save the farm!
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That is one good thing. Even though his salary is a bit steep, at least we didn't trade a bunch of prospects for a one year player.
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I love the fact that the Sox got Kimbrel. He is one of the best relief pitchers in the game, and he will no doubt make our team better. That said, I hate the deal. It is definitely an overpay, and IMO, a pretty steep one. Very good relief pitchers, including closers, can be found for much cheaper. Trading four prospects for a cost-controlled Kimbrel would have been an overpay. Signing Kimbrel in free agency for 2 yrs/$24 mil or 3 yrs/$37 mil would have been an overpay. Giving up four prospects and having to pay that salary is a double whammy. Dombrowski filled a need, and a pretty big one at that, for which I am happy. However, I think he could have made better use of our resources. He was right. This was painful.
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Agreed. Of course, if moving one of them is the "pain" that Dombrowski speaks of, I will not be happy. I don't see that happening though.
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I know that Dombrowski has had a genuine interest. IMO, the price in prospects will be too high for a one year relief pitcher. I think he could do more or less just as well in another reliever with a lower cost. We'll have to wait and see. Last I heard, Dombrowski prefers Ken Giles over Chapman.
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It puts knots in my stomach. I would rather not hear the hundreds of rumors and all of the speculation, and just read the news when the deal is done. And yet, as I said earlier, I can't keep myself from reading all this stuff.
