Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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As far as I know, there isn't a writer or an analyst out there who has said that we didn't overpay. Even the ones who like the trade acknowledge that we overpaid. I wouldn't go so far as saying that we got completely ripped off, but we paid a steep price.
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It is going to take a while to determine whether this trade ends up being a good trade or not. Margot and Guerra (and the other two prospects) could certainly end up not amounting to anything, in which case the trade ends up being great for the Sox, if Kimbrel continues his dominance as a closer. That said, the value of prospects is largely based on their rankings and their projections because that's really all GMs have to go on. No one can predict what will actually happen. In that sense, what we gave up has far more value than what we got in return. I have no attachment to either Margot or Guerra, and I really don't care that they were traded. I just think the Sox could have used those resources more to their advantage.
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I'm now reading how the Marlins are fed up with Fernandez' "immature attitude" and how Fernandez is very disrespectful when he talks to management. This hints at the Marlins being ready to move him, though if he does indeed have an attitude problem, not sure that we'd want him. As far as the Sox having the pieces to get Fernandez, I'm sure they do. However, I'll say again that just because they can afford it doesn't mean they should be stupid about it.
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I think there are some pretty good 2nd tier pitchers available, but after last season, I don't think the FO will go that route. It's still not a bad plan, but I think this year the FO is thinking ace or bust.
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Of course this team has the resources to do pretty much whatever they want, but that doesn't mean they should be stupid in their decisions.
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Henry has apparently given Dombrowski the go ahead on signing one "big fish" in free agency. I really don't see any way that the Sox wouldn't go over the luxury tax limit if that's the case. Knowing that Ortiz' $16 million will be coming off the books in 2017 will help. It won't help us to stay under the limit this year, but it could get us under the limit next year, which would reset the penalty.
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Not without gutting the farm, as Jacko said. I almost think you have to go the trade route now, which limits our options, or go with a 2nd tier starter and strengthen the pen even more.
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That's possible, but the impression I got early in the offseason was that the Cubs were looking for more pitching and that they had Price on their radar.
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No worries. I am really curious to see what happens on the pitching front. I am almost positive I'm not going to like the cost, no matter who we get. But mostly, I don't want Dombrowski to strip the farm.
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No, that has not been lost at all. We know he's very good, and I think everyone is happy to have him on the team.
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I wasn't talking about the one trade.
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I am not suggesting that what has been done so far represents a win now at all cost philosophy. In fact, I have posted more than once, that I am OK with the Kimbrel trade right now because our team did get better and our farm system is still in great shape. My comment about the win now at any cost mentality was in reference to this quote: I agreed with this quote that we still have the resources to acquire a front line starter, but at what cost will that come to the team? If the feeling is that you do whatever it costs to land a top starter, then that is the philosophy that I'm talking about.
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This is a win now at any cost philosophy, which is fine if that's the way you want to go. I do not agree with that line of thinking. It would feel great if we won another WS in the short term, but that's not guaranteed. In the long term, we could end up with a long drought of bad teams because we are handcuffed by bad contracts and have a barren farm system. It would be far wiser to make moves with both the short and long term goals in mind.
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I'm not complaining. I am offering my critical analysis of the trade. There is a difference. And if I have repeated my opinion too many times, it's only because I am responding to other's posts. That's why I come to Talksox. I respectfully suggest that if you don't like my "complaining", or are bored by my posts, or find them so laughable, then don't read them.
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Of course we still have the resources to acquire a front line starter. At what cost to the future of this team though?
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I am not a Ben loyalist. A Theo loyalist, maybe, but not a Ben loyalist. What I'm actually a loyalist of is their overall philosophy when it comes to building baseball teams. They are spot on with that philosophy. It's not that they don't make any mistakes, but their overall approach to building a team is the way it should be done. I am skeptical of Dombrowski's methods. However, I have not lambasted him. I have been critical of one move, but I also have stated that I understand his rationale behind that move. I fully agree with his other "big move" to date, which was to pick up Buchholz's option.
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On this, we agree.
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His history with Maddon will play to the Cubs' advantage, not to mention the overall allure of the Cubs.
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Price will be paid an absurd amount of money no matter which team he chooses, so if he has a preferred team in mind, I think it will take quite a significant amount, like $20 - $30 mil or an additional year, over that team's bid to lure him away. Sure, the Sox can make that bid if they really want to. I'm not sure how prudent that will be though.
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He is reportedly officially announcing his retirement tomorrow, so it sounds like it's official. It is nice that he is retiring on his terms, and it's also nice that the fans will have the opportunity to give him the proper send off.
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No thanks. I wouldn't mind Ross, but not if we have to take Kemp with his remaining contract. Kemp would not have a position to play anyway, unless we moved one of our current outfielders.
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I like Carrasco better than Salazar too, but Salazar would suffice and wouldn't cost as much. And I'm not trying to say that either one is as good as Price or Sale. I am usually one who much prefers getting players that only cost money, but with the price tag Price will come with, and our abundance of prospects, this was one time I would have preferred getting a starter via trade. But that was before we gave up those prospects for Kimbrel. At this point, trading for a top starter would likely hurt our farm too much. Many are assuming that Price would choose to come to Boston, which I'm not sure is a good assumption. If we outbid all the other teams by $20 or $30 mil, then he likely would. If his other offers are comparable, I think he goes somewhere else.
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This is what happens when you leave. The rest of us get all out of whack.
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If Sale wasn't available, Quintana might have been. He would be cheaper too.
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Here's another perspective on the value of the trade. Fangraphs did some projections on the 4 prospects that the Sox gave up. Yes, they are just projections which may or may not pan out, but this is the type of thing that GMs look at when they are trying to determine the value or worth of players. One of the posts in the comments section summed it up nicely: "In other words, if Kimbrel gives the Red Sox 14.6 WAR and pays them back all his salary above the major league minimum, it’s an even trade." To give that statement some point of reference, Kimbrel has been worth 12.9 WAR over his 6 years in the majors, and Steamer projects him to be worth 1.2 WAR next season. In other words, chances are slim to none that Kimbrel comes close to that 14.6 WAR, not to mention the difference between his salary and the major league minimum.
