Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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The back end of the BP has been really good. Cora has used those guys effectively. Somebody (Finn, I think) brought up a good point about how Kimbrel was not really open to the idea of what Cora is doing this year.
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{Applauds} Both you for making the post and Walden.
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No, it doesn't mean 9th inning.
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That pretty much sums it up. Saves, Holds, Blown Saves are all bad stats, IMO.
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Also, FTR, last I checked neither holds nor blown saves were official MLB stats. Therefore, there are slightly different criteria for those stats, depending on which site you use.
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Those 2 guys did blow 13 save opportunities out of 24, but here is why that stat is misleading. BR defines 'save opportunities' as simply saves + blown saves. So yes, the times a reliever pitches the 8th and blows the save is counted as a save opportunity. Pitchers that often pitch in the 8th inning or earlier are getting penalized for blown saves, but are not getting any credit for any of the successful holds. Let's say that Barnes comes into the 8th inning in 20 games and successfully holds 15 of them. That's a success rate of 75%, with 5 blown saves. Then he comes into a save situation in the 9th inning in 5 games and successfully saves all of them. That's a success rate of 100%, with 5 saves. Between the 8th and 9th innings, Barnes was successful 20 out of 25 times, or 80% of the time. With BR's definition of save opportunities, Barnes had 10 save opportunities, and was successful in only 5 of them, making his success rate only 50%. All of his successful holds are ignored with that stat.
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What are the chances of Porcello being offered a contract extension?
Kimmi replied to TylerD's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I would try my best to re-sign him for a relatively short term deal. Don't know if that will be possible, but I certainly wouldn't overlook trying to keep him. I may be wrong, but he strikes me as someone who is not all about taking the biggest contract. -
This had me laughing a lot harder than it had any right to.
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Sale also had a slower pace last night. He didn't look as comfortable as he usually does. He and Leon are just on the same page. That's nothing against Vaz, it just is what it is.
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I'm not talking offensively. Sale is clearly a better pitcher when pitching to Leon.
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This is a great point that often gets overlooked. So maybe a missed defensive out did not directly result in a run that inning, but it does affect things in future innings.
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Fair points. I don't see it as a lack of trust. Cora was at the point in those games where he could turn to his high leverage guys who have been pitching very well. We shall keep an eye on this.
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LOL That is a scary thought. Actually, acronyms in general are a scary thought.
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There actually is a stat, GPA, that has OBP and SLG broken down correctly by percentages. Sadly, it has not caught on.
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The goal of the statisticians is to eliminate as many flaws as possible and to get answers. They are not out to try to prove anyone wrong, though that has happened quite a bit, nor are they out to dupe anyone.
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^^ Full fledged stat geek.
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And wOBA and wRC are even better than OPS.
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There are stats that include stolen bases and base running in general, and give you the overall offensive production of and player.
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OPS is flawed. So is BA. OPS has a stronger correlation to run scoring than BA does. Also, OPS has a stronger year to year correlation. IMO, that makes it a better stat.
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On your first paragraph, I agree completely. As far as OPS and SLG are concerned, I agree that they are flawed, as are all stats, but I don't think that makes them bad stats. IMO, OPS is a very good stat with regard to its correlation to runs scored and its simplicity. BA is quite fine, though I think OPS and many other stats are better in assessing a batter. As you mention, understanding what the stat is trying to measure and understanding its limitations are key. I use sabermetrics all the time, it's just that no one ever listens to me. I also often use the more familiar stats due to their simplicity and familiarity.
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Of course. And I'm not saying that everyone has to embrace the new stats. I'm really not. I firmly believe, though, that if one is going to debate on a baseball forum, being able to support one's opinion with numbers goes a lot further than anecdotal evidence. I do understand that not everything can be supported by data. I have made arguments that I cannot support by data. However, if someone showed me strong statistical data that went against my opinion, I would not brush the data off as being wrong or useless. I would rethink my opinion and consider that I might be wrong. It's okay if you don't embrace analytics. It's not okay, IMO, to say that you embrace analytics or see the value in them, use them when they support your opinion, but then blow them off as useless when they say something that contradicts your beliefs or opinions. And I don't mean 'you' personally.
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I never watched Holliday play enough to know what kind of defender he was. The defensive metrics are not kind at all to him in his last 6 years. They were better for the 5 years prior to those. Maybe you are influenced on your overall opinion by the recency effect? And have you watched him play enough to really know? I'm not saying that the metrics are perfect, but looking at the consistency of the data for Holliday over a large sample size, I'm okay with accepting what the data says, that he was a good defender early on and not so good in his later years.
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I agree. And JD Drew made plays look so easy because he almost never had to dive for the ball. Sometimes, that defensive 'flair', or lack thereof, can be deceptive.
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What are the chances of Porcello being offered a contract extension?
Kimmi replied to TylerD's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
IMO, Porcello is one of the most underappreciated starting pitchers. And this opinion has nothing to do with his most recent outings. -
Again, I don't see Cora having trust issues with the pen. In high leverage situations, any manager is going to stick with the same 2-3 relievers that he always does, if they are available.
