sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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I think it's possible. I assume we are facing the Yankees who have obliterated LHP all season - and having a less left-handed rotation for that matchup
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My playoff roster STARTERS: C: Leon 1B: Moreland 2B: Kinsler 3B: Devers SS: Bogaerts LF: Benintendi CF: Bradley RF: Betts DH: Martinez BENCH: Swihart, Holt, Nunez, Pearce, Phillips - a really interesting, versatile bench. Now I wish we had a pure outfielder - but absent that another "veteran bat" like Phillips works nicely. It is possible the Sox will carry 12 pitchers, but 11 is my strong preference. PITCHERS STARTERS: Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello PEN: Rodriguez, Kelly, Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Workman, Kimbrel I am working on the assumption we will play the Yankees in the ALDS. If we play Oakland, we swap Eovaldi and Rodriguez. The Yankees have been the league's best offense against lefties - so it makes sense to have a 2nd righty in there. (and, obviously tiny sample size, but Porcello and Eovaldi did nicely against NYY last time out) Wright swapping out somebody is not a terrible idea.
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Right - basically the playoff eligible players are iirc The 40-man roster as of Aug 31 + Anybody on the 60 day DL (and their slots if they actually cannot play) So Phillips can be added to a playoff roster easily.
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Absent evidence of something environmental, I always defer to "fluke"
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He's a former All-Star - was one of the best 2B in the league. But very much a possibility if the Red Sox carry 11 pitchers on the ALDS roster. Magic number is 4 to guarantee October baseball.
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2018 bat flip of the year!
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The best option to steal a base is Castillo, which also is not happening.
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He's going to make the roster - because he can play a bunch of positions including catcher, and that is valuable. He's gotten better as his reps have gotten a bit more regular. I'm happy for him - his road has been rocky, but it's nice there is still a real interesting player in there.
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So was Phillips' homerun the 2018 Boston Red Sox Bat-Flip of the year? I have not seen a better one.
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Sale-Price-Porcello-Rodriguez ... I'd be inclined for flip flop Porcello and Rodriguez if we were down 0-2 or something ... otherwise it is good to have Rodriguez with a day off behind him given that he normally has not pitched deep into games. I do think the swing-man position is very much up in the air. Wright absolutely could fit in there if he shows he is healthy.
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Swihart easily makes the roster as a guy who can both catch and provide some backup value on the corners. Vasquez would be nice to have on the playoff roster - but I don't really think he justifies it, especially providing no real marginal offensive value at catcher. At least you pinch-hit Leon you are going to sub him with someone who can hit.
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Honestly - and this won't happen ... I'd go 11 pitchers and possibly add a Rusney Castillo for a pinch runner and a reserve outfielder who can provide some solid defense.
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Yes and no - movement is not a thing generally with a four-seamer ... but there are differences in backspin - and some subtle movement, and of course you add general deception. There is a reason that Joe Kelly's or Eovaldi's four seamers have never gotten much swing and miss. For me, the two seamer, the cutter and the slider are just "degrees" of fundamentally the same pitch with relatively similar grips.
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Replacement value is ALSO a calculated result. Really what position player WAR is doing is taking all of the building blocks of offense and defense and converting their value into runs. Then the runs are turned into wins. A replacement player is contributing the runs added associated with basically that 43 win Tigers team. The idea is that if you just randomly picked a team of AAAA sort of guys, they would be a 43-119 sort of team. And conceptually it makes sense. A team does not have ready access to an average major league ballplayer. They DO have ready access to Tzu-Wei Lin, or a Rick Lancellotti or a Dan Butler. THAT is what you'd actually be doing if you had to replace a player right now.
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But have the betting favorites still finished in the money at all? This could easily just be a random cold streak. Past performance guarantees nothing - but past performance can inform probability of stuff happening. That's all statistics (the academic discipline, not simply listing of box score data) is: Given past performance, what is likely?
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LOL (in case this wasn't snark) ... assuming a bell curve, this was decidedly a better than average outcome for his season. That said I think an "average" outcome for him this season was still pretty good.
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Given how reliever-centric the sport is now - it is not that surprising that bullpens are facing serious attrition problems. Where I fret about the Sox is how hard they have leaned on relievers, especially with that #4 and #5 spot in the rotation. Rodriguez when he has pitched has been outstanding, but like Pomeranz last year, was still not getting deep into games. I expect the expanded rosters will help take some pressure off.
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I think this is definitely a right tailed outcome for him - though there was no doubt he would be a 30 HR sort of guy for the early part of the contract. The question with his contract was health and the aging curve for guys like him (see Pujols, who is actually a better athlete) - if bat speed goes, there is not much of a ballplayer there. That said, the early part of the contract looked promising - and both sides should end up really happy with that.
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What I like about him at 9th is that it improves the chance of having a baserunner around for Betts to do something ...
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The bullpen has also been seriously taxed with the inability of the back end starters to give innings - even Rodriguez who has been outstanding. The bullpen needed the roster expansion badly. Barnes has suffered - but a lot of that could be fixed just by having help besides Brasier.
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it is clear the Red Sox are slow-walking some of these injuries ... it's a spoil of having 90 wins before the end of August
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If it s a blowout, Leon should just employ the Crash Davis approach to that.
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True - although Betts was the best DRS outfielder in the bigs the last 2 seasons by a really wide margin. I am not sure the other guys as good as they were - were on the same level. Also I think playing in KC vs Fenway is a help there - there are just so many more chances to make plays. One of UZR's weaknesses are odd shape outfields. I mean, Fenway LFs have graded poorly for years ... sometimes it's on merit, but I think there are just very few chances to make OOZ plays. Almost any non-routine or line drive is hitting the wall.
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WAR is the dumbest stat known to mankind (Trout vs. Betts)
sk7326 replied to kenmeister's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Personally, I tend to use fWAR more as far as making inferences about the future ... they try to control for things which are (in part) lucky. I prefer bWAR for stuff like awards - the normalization is a bit more grounded in things which actually happened. (like how bWAR starts with runs allowed for pitchers, as opposed to FIP) And for pitchers, they seem to be more precise in normalizing for the lineups the pitcher actually faced. -
Are PawSox games hurt by the Red Sox (or the Worcester Whatevers)? Note that the Durham Bulls are a Rays affiliate. If the Rays moved closer it might benefit everybody.