sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Pomeranz - this is easy There were first rounders in this past draft younger than Devers. No reason for it to be a straight road.
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i'm worried about every team that qualifies - all it takes is a slightly better or slightly worse run of pitching.
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The Sox knew they were giving up a premium prospect. At the same time, I think Dombrowski - not unreasonably - decided that the high variability that comes with an 18 year old pitcher in Single A was enough reason to cash him in to help the major league club who had a division to win. I did not love the move - but my disagreement is more in the "I disagree, but I get where he's coming from, and his view is pretty reasonable" vs "What the heck is that guy doing?"
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Top 20 fWAR 2014-2018 pitchers 1. Clayton Kershaw (High School) 2. Corey Kluber (College) 3. Chris Sale (College) 4. Max Scherzer (College) 5. Jacob DeGrom (College) 6. David Price (College) 7. Zack Greinke (High School) 8. Justin Verlander (College) 9. Jake Arrieta (College) 10. Carlos Carrasco (Intl) 11. Stephen Strasburg (College) 12. Jose Quintana (Intl) 13. Gerrit Cole (College) 14. Jon Lester (High School) 15. Chris Archer (High School) 16. Dallas Kuechel (College) 17. Madison Bumgarner (High School) 18. Johnny Cueto (Intl) 19. Cole Hamels (High School) 20. Trevor Bauer (College) 11 of the top 20 here were college players. Of the 6 high schoolers - only Lester and Archer were not drafted in the first round. So there seems to be a slight bias to college success here - much more stark trend at the top of the list. The physical maturity matters. College kids in general are safer, but the upside for college pitchers is still really high, especially compared to say college middle field prospects.
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At this point the additional 20-30 innings of value is a lot to overcome. This is like the Beckett-Sabbathia race of 2007. Beckett in a lot of ways was better but Sabbathia pitched more than 40 more innings and you can't ignore that.
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I think if the Red Sox needed Sale to start, he would have. It was one of the perks of being 50 games above .500
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Booo!!! Scouting the stat line, boo!!!!! There are reasons to be skeptical of Espinoza - but the stat line ain't it. He struck out 100 guys in 108 innings as the league's youngest regular. He did not dominate the level you'd expect "the next pedro" to do - but he was very good and still very much profiled as a potential top of the rotation sort.
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I think he is a very strong candidate for a 1-year prove it deal.
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fWAR leaders among position players 2014-2018 1. Mike Trout (High School) 2. Mookie Betts (High School) 3. Jose Altuve (Intl) 4. Josh Donaldson (College) 5. Paul Goldschmidt (College) 6. Giancarlo Stanton (High School) 7. Manny Machado (High School) 8. Freddie Freeman (High School) 9. Anthony Rendon (College) 10. Kris Bryant (College) 11. Joey Votto (College) 12. Anthony Rizzo (High School) 13. Nolen Arenado (High School) 14. Lorenzo Cain (High School) 15. Francisco Lindor (High School) 16. Bryce Harper (High School) 17. Christian Yelich (High School) 18. Buster Posey (College) 19. Justin Turner (College) 20. Matt Carpenter (College) Some conclusions If you want a catcher or a corner infielder, largely who cares - 7 of the 11 guys on this list went to college. (Carpenter was drafted as a 3B - though he has played 2B in the majors) Anybody else, high school was very much dominated. Teams have definitely wanted to get elite athletes as young as possible - and it makes sense. Pitchers are much more college biased - the physical maturity just matters so much there.
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I did not love the trade when it happened. At the same time, I get Dombrowski's calculation. He traded a very high variability player for a decent big leaguer. Now I don't think he predicted that Espinoza would basically lose 2 full seasons. But he was a prospect who was still at single-A, did not have a mature body, and largely had not created great results with his stuff. Would you make the deal now? The idea would be trading an albatross for a lottery ticket. I don't think Pomeranz is an albatross yet.
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It's baseball - no need to overthink it. The Astros are PROBABLY the favorite because of the best starting rotation. But again, it's also who can get hot for 3 weeks ... and even a 70 win team can do that. As I've noted before there has never been a team which I'd take in a "bet vs the field".
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Lindor is a better player than Bogaerts. Bogaerts has had an outstanding year, and if this is his level that is a darn good player. Not Lindor, but again almost nobody else is either.
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it's nice when you can grip the bat properly ...
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i think the bullpen is very much in the air. I think the bench is much more a function of how many job openings there really are. (put another way, if we carry 11 pitchers - there will be a position ... if we carry 12, it's moot)
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I think it's possible. I assume we are facing the Yankees who have obliterated LHP all season - and having a less left-handed rotation for that matchup
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My playoff roster STARTERS: C: Leon 1B: Moreland 2B: Kinsler 3B: Devers SS: Bogaerts LF: Benintendi CF: Bradley RF: Betts DH: Martinez BENCH: Swihart, Holt, Nunez, Pearce, Phillips - a really interesting, versatile bench. Now I wish we had a pure outfielder - but absent that another "veteran bat" like Phillips works nicely. It is possible the Sox will carry 12 pitchers, but 11 is my strong preference. PITCHERS STARTERS: Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello PEN: Rodriguez, Kelly, Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Workman, Kimbrel I am working on the assumption we will play the Yankees in the ALDS. If we play Oakland, we swap Eovaldi and Rodriguez. The Yankees have been the league's best offense against lefties - so it makes sense to have a 2nd righty in there. (and, obviously tiny sample size, but Porcello and Eovaldi did nicely against NYY last time out) Wright swapping out somebody is not a terrible idea.
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Right - basically the playoff eligible players are iirc The 40-man roster as of Aug 31 + Anybody on the 60 day DL (and their slots if they actually cannot play) So Phillips can be added to a playoff roster easily.
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Absent evidence of something environmental, I always defer to "fluke"
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He's a former All-Star - was one of the best 2B in the league. But very much a possibility if the Red Sox carry 11 pitchers on the ALDS roster. Magic number is 4 to guarantee October baseball.
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2018 bat flip of the year!
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The best option to steal a base is Castillo, which also is not happening.
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He's going to make the roster - because he can play a bunch of positions including catcher, and that is valuable. He's gotten better as his reps have gotten a bit more regular. I'm happy for him - his road has been rocky, but it's nice there is still a real interesting player in there.
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So was Phillips' homerun the 2018 Boston Red Sox Bat-Flip of the year? I have not seen a better one.
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Sale-Price-Porcello-Rodriguez ... I'd be inclined for flip flop Porcello and Rodriguez if we were down 0-2 or something ... otherwise it is good to have Rodriguez with a day off behind him given that he normally has not pitched deep into games. I do think the swing-man position is very much up in the air. Wright absolutely could fit in there if he shows he is healthy.
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Swihart easily makes the roster as a guy who can both catch and provide some backup value on the corners. Vasquez would be nice to have on the playoff roster - but I don't really think he justifies it, especially providing no real marginal offensive value at catcher. At least you pinch-hit Leon you are going to sub him with someone who can hit.