sk7326

You are off by a level or two here.

It IS very close - I agree there (and I should have put more people on the list now that I am looking at bWAR and diving a bit) A pretend ballot since we're here Cy Young 1. Verlander - Numbers with Kluber are close, but Verlander was much better against the other playoff contenders (5-2, 3.07 ERA vs 4-3, 3.84 ERA) 2. Sale - He's been pitch to pitch the best guy in the league 3. Snell - Snell is really close. But hey, I'm a Sox fan! Rookie 1. Torres - Given a close race, I am inclined to go with younger players. And Torres has been at times spectacular 2. Ohtani - The pitching was disappointing, but the hitting was a genuine surprise. 3. Wendle - Has let the rookies in bWAR, but I do value age and style a bit here - and Wendle is just a bit short on those areas. Manager 1. Alex Cora 2. Kevin Cash 3. Bob Melvin Who the hell knows what "best manager" is. And also, with the job really transcending a year's performance (a manager establishes culture which pays off over a longer period of time). These three stand out - though Francona, Hinch are perfectly good choices too. MVP (I think the writers do ten choices, but I'll do 5) 1. Betts (easy, the best player on the best team, narrative and numbers align nicely) 2. Trout (he is the utility - could have won 6 MVPs in a row) 3. Ramirez (given folks who are close in WAR, I tend to lean towards WAR built more from offense, due to it just being easier to measure) 4. Chapman (he has had the best defensive season in the league and clearly the hitting has been there too) 5. Martinez (I am not sure of the intangible effects, but I am not saying that is zero ... but he has a 6 win season entirely on offense, and his contribution has coincided with Boston's greatest need) Bregman, Lindor are tough omissions

The Red Sox example here is Yoan Moncada.

I tend to be positive about athletes who get better at stuff as they get exposure ... so Dalbec gives some optimism, albeit cautious

I think the question is what does cliff mean - and I think that's where my head is at. If we are thinking CLIFF as in turning into the 2018 Kansas City Royals - that ain't happening, and the franchise won't let that happen. (it might, but they will go into the season trying to avoid that) If we think of it as the Yankees CLIFF, where things bottomed out at 84 wins, and you at least had 3-4 months of a credible playoff chase - THAT is what I'd expect as a worst case.

It really comes down - does missing a month of the season matter? I think yes. This is really turning up like the Sabathia-Beckett race in 2007, where that giant innings gap became decisive.

*NARRATOR* He was already

median is a reasonable definition of average ... now if you prefer mean to median in this context is up to you.

It should be in the mix - he has been amazing. But right now he is 30+ innings behind the other starters. So some of the inherent value of a #1 starter (allow the manager to not have to burn bullpen staff once every five games) has not been there. Every inning Sale pitches is an inning an inferior player doesn't.

2 yrs/40-45m ... the yearly salary interests me less than the years. It's the years that is always the limiting factor.

40-50% of at least one of them. Chavis and Dalbec have plus (or close to plus) in SOME areas. And Dalbec seems to be a good athlete.

if you committed to it and he had an offseason, I could see it. Never doubt good athletes, especially those with some infield background already. It would not be my first choice.

I think that is fair to a point. But again, each inning a good starter pitches is an inning an inferior pitcher is not - and this is especially acute when a starter keeps turning the game over in the 5th or 6th inning. I know the game is more bullpen-centric than ever, but it means having a real workhorse more valuable (at least in the regular season). WAR does a good job with combining quality and quantity - but I think the quantity has some value outside of what WAR captures. And 40 innings is a lot.

This is right - the budget can always increase ... and the team's revenue and profitability has never been an issue. When you are a legacy franchise, a landmark ballpark you own, a crappy cable channel you mostly own - really not keeping a guy comes down to it being a bad baseball move, or Henry wanting another plane.

Dalbec has an 80 arm and (from reports) has shown he can really pick it at 3B. The rub is there is not a great history of success for dudes who swing and miss as much as he does against non-big leaguers. Dalbec has made progress, but there is a lot of variability there. Can he make enough contact at the big league level to get on base enough to let the defense and power play. (like Josh Reddick's travails in his pre-Oakland career) Ockimey is higher floor lower ceiling. And his value has to be in his bat - because it's not going to be anywhere else.

Players of his age and ability just don't get to unrestricted free agency. He will have a strong market. I've noted somewhere else - I would not be surprised if Dombrowski ... not SHOP, but let the world know that he won't hang up if they want to talk X. If the Red Sox are not sure they want to resign Bogaerts and want to get something more than a sandwich pick - this offseason is the sweet spot to deal him to get maximum return. I'm not predicting it. I'm not recommending it. But it makes sense given the facts on the ground.

Sale has been the best pitcher in the AL by a mile when he has pitched. The WAR numbers CLEARLY show that. However, there is significant value in bulk which WAR does some disservice to - it's an inning a middle reliever doesn't pitch - which Sale is now way behind in. Verlander is my pick. Sale winning would be awesome, and there is a solid case for him. But Verlander's IP puts him over the top for me.

Some UFAs who make sense for what the Red Sox need include: Josh Harrison Ian Kinsler Daniel Murphy If the market gets down to 1 or 2 years, Brian Dozier is interesting (I expect he will be too rich) If you wanted to be creative Jose Iglesias and see if Bogaerts can play 2B ... (again this is more spitballing than anything realistic) Kinsler is the safest idea and probably my first wish. Harrison is not really an improvement over Holt or Nunez.

There won't be a Cy winner - Sale simply has not pitched enough.

I too predict a 30 win dropoff in 2021

BABIP is largely random but not 100%. It seems more controllable from the pitching side than the hitting one. At the same time, line drives correlate with hits - which lines up nicely with how we were all coached.

It happened because the industry was dumb about this stuff.

1. Here is the entire list of teams with a ready replacement for a pitcher of Chris Sale's caliber in their farm system: (Crickets, tumbleweed blowing) 2. For the most part the Sox have not been in the draft position to get stud pitchers. At the same time, the org has always preferred the predictability of position talent. Dombrowski though has shown much more willingness to draft pitching. 3. I am not sure about Pomeranz. On one hand, it's easy to see him leaving. On the other, will somebody give him a multi-year deal? If I were Dombrowski, I'd still offer him a 1 year deal. Pomeranz might have to take a "prove it" deal anyway. 4. The team is less strapped than simply in between prospect cycles. Every team faces this - we'll see how it goes. 5. Position wise, this team is as set as ownership wants it to be. There are reasons for the team to potentially quietly explore deals for Bogaerts (though I don't think it will happen, and I'm not sure I would do it in their position) - if you don't intend on re-signing him, this offseason is the sweet spot to get a strong return. At the same time, if ownership wants to keep the young talent together, they can. 6. It's a good time to be a Sox fan. The org has some hard choices, but so does every other one - and for the most part they are good choices to have.

Coming into the season, people really slept on the Red Sox. I mean look at last year. Pedroia and Price had big injury issues. The offense never replaced Ortiz. None of the kids made a leap. 3rd base was a giant vortex of suck for most of the season. There was a strong negative vibe, and it feels like a bad season. They also won 93 games and their 2nd straight AL East. I mean even BEFORE adding JD Martinez, there was a lot of reason to think this team was going to get better without doing much of anything. Of course we DID add Martinez.

I worry because of the HRs. But Porcello has been the team's most consistent source of innings - and that has significant value in itself. His start is going to be very important - to allow Cora to manage the #4 starter aggressively.