sk7326

16 of next 19 in the division - a lot can happen still. But they are playing well.

It is a shame. I think what ended up happening is that he was a limited pitcher - it was why he did not cut it as a starter in the farm level. But his limitations did not matter when you become a 1-2 inning guy. That fastball-slider combo is plenty. In 2012, the transition he made personally to try to be a true starter - most notably the change in the heater - did not work. His fastball is plus as a reliever, good but nothing special as a starter. What will confound fans and scientists for years to come is how he could never recover the stuff when he went back to the bullpen - outside of a health problem, there was no reason for him to not be able to recapture his stuff. The command issues are one thing - but you could live with fringy command/control if the stuff was still restaurant quality and it no longer was. Being designated - it will be interesting if somebody picks him up ... I'd claim him, after all it costs nothing to kick the tires and see if he needs a change of scenery.

What I meant was that they might be actual contenders like they are this year or perhaps a step down like 2010 - which can be fixed with a move or two ... with the second wild card of course, you can make the playoffs without being at the level of the other teams, although of course this being baseball nothing prevents you from having the 3 good weeks needed to win the title.

The final playoff roster: Pitchers (12): Breslow, Britton, Dempster, Doubront, Lackey, Lester, Morales, Peavy, Tazawa, Thornton, Uehara, Workman Catchers (2): Ross, Saltalamacchia Infielders (5): Boegaerts, Drew, Middlebrooks, Napoli, Pedroia Outfielders (5): Carp, Ellsbury, Gomes, Nava, Victorino DH (1): Ortiz Guys on DL: Snyder, Bailey, Buchholz, Hanrahan, Miller, Wilson, Kalish With Snyder and Buchholz being activated (or planned on being activated), that leaves: Free Slots (5): Bailey, Hanrahan, Miller, Wilson, Kalish So, of the guys you have read about - McDonald, Berry ... as well as the guys like Lavarnway, De La Rosa, others on the Pawtucket train ... 5 of them will make the postseason roster. I'd expect both McDonald and Berry to make the roster as guys with specific skills (glove and stolen bases). Lavarnway seems like a safe bet, since a 3rd catcher makes sense to have eligible. So two guys left who were in the organization as of yesterday who can be added to the playoff roster. Of course of the three guys just mentioned, I feel most confident about Lavarnway's inclusion. Remember if the Red Sox do not win the division, they have to play the WC round. But the WC round also includes a roster reset before the ALDS - so the Red Sox could easily carry extra position players for the WC game (where you don't expect to need 10 pitchers, let alone 12). Could easily see Berry or McDonald added then for a one-game need.

LOL ... let's put it this way, we say "no way" when all of those "some player for our best prospects (like the Boegarts-Cecchini-Owens)" deals come around - King Felix is the one where I'd listen. Age, resume, demonstrated durability. Otherwise, there's virtually nobody we'd have any sort of chance of landing (Trout, McCutchen and the like).

True - although he can crush a mistake. His power is sufficient - it's not like Jose Iglesias here. But yes, totally agree - his approach is the one thing he does at a true big league level, and that is a place to start. But yeah, you look for players like that - guys who do something really well who can figure out the rest enough to be useful.

Ellsbury going will be tough - you don't like to let go your arguably best player - but his age and projection is tough to make a long commitment to. Also Bradley can approximate most of his virtues with the one that he can't being the least important (the prodigious steal number). The rotation is in solid shape - no aces but a lot of 2/3 caliber sorts. Now, if you WANT a difference making starter, it is not going to come from the FA pile. James Shields ain't it. However, King Felix is, and the Red Sox can easily put a prudent package together - yes it would hurt to lose some blue chippers but a guy like him is why you pile up minor league assets. (if HanRam and Sanchez were worthwhile for Beckett, Felix is a LOT better) Otherwise you absolutely protect your assets - this team is good enough to be a pseudo contender/true contender for the next couple of years without doing anything crazy.

1B the Sox lack depth - but it is also the easiest position to find a productive guy. Heck, a true Napoli-Carp platoon would actually be a pretty productive 2-headed 1B. The Sox can look at a guy like Abreu if they really think he can be a true 5-10 year solution at the position, but otherwise, simply filling it with a stopgap guy or two will not hurt them. Knowing how this team rolls, I'd expect them to spend their money (if they are going to lay out) on the rotation and the core positions. (up the middle while being opportunistic on the corners if a bat like Choo is possible)

It wouldn't be a surprise then would it? Seriously, Nava is a special case clearly, perserverence etc. But also he is a guy with a true major league ability (approach) who got better in other places to be able to be a fringy starter sort. Where you look for surprises is a case of serious raw ability putting it together (see Chris Davis who was always an 80 power sort of guy - just needed to hone his approach and make some contact)

if it's health - it's one thing. if it is just a slump, then he'll be ok.

The PA is happy for sure - it creates jobs. But really this is all groupthink from the Eckersley A's days. The A's ran an elite bullpen that way, it became the only way - regardless of whether it makes sense or not in general. And then you add fan pressure, explosion of sports radio etc etc etc.

To a degree- those sorts of relievers are gone. At the same time, while it is possible this is the best application of knowledge, it could just as easily be groupthink. You don't think that you can get a 100 IP reliever anymore? What if they were 50, regularly scheduled 2 inning outings (like rotate 3 pitchers)? It's the same with the 4-man rotation - there is no evidence that a 5-man rotation really prevents injury, but there is a lot of risk aversion, which is unsurprising. These are the same forces that (for instance) in football make football coaches not go for it on 4th and short nearly enough. The problem is that the risk aversion has created all of these silly 1-inning sort of roles, and results in 11 or 12 man pitching staffs which make a team's bench unnecessarily thin. The best example I tend to cite is Tim Lincecum in the postseason last year - it is pretty clear he is no longer a particularly good starter, but he could be dynamite as a 100 inning super-reliever. But you'd have to pay him enough to make it worth his while, a job without statistical glory but much more value than Fernando Rodney's saves.

The save was made up by a writer to enhance box scores and give relievers credit. It became a subject of arbitration awards - where arbitrators tend to really only know stats casual fans do. Also, when LaRussa made the 1-inning closer fetish such an en vogue thing, the entire balance got shifted. The days of the Rich Gossage-Mike Marshall sort of relievers are gone, and frankly it is a disappointing thing just in terms of how it helps manage bullpens.

Tillman has been a puzzle for the Sox all season, so it'll be fun to see if they make any headway this time. Also good to see if Lester figured something out or was the last couple of starts a pitcher-park driven illusion.

I know Scherzer will win it - and he is a clear Top 2 pitcher this season, so it would not be any sort of travesty. King Felix and Scherzer are the only two fair choices - Darvish is the best of the rest but a definite step down. King Felix has the edge innings, the xFIP is close, and Scherzer faced lesser lineups (just going from game logs and such). Just as a general thing, the volume of innings makes it very hard for a reliever - especially a 1-inning guy - to have a ton of consideration for me. Uehara has been outstanding - and he filled a role they needed filled, with the extra bonus of actually being able to net a 4-out sort of save from time to time if they need it. Farrell's deployment of Uehara has been baffling at times, but that's not Koji's fault.

if Ells can put together more seasons like 2013 that'd be sufficient. If he put together 2011 repeatedly he'd be a hall of famer ...

Ellsbury 5.0 fwar, Victorino 4.7, Pedroia 4.6 ... I'll knock Victorino down slightly just because so much of his WAR is coming from defense (which is just a flimsier metric than offense at this point). Victorino's season has been absolutely stunning for anybody who saw his corpse hop around last season.

Ellsbury has been good. I like his 2013, love it - he's our best position player. A guy who plays a quality CF with his speed and power - yes 2011 is a fluke but he is no slap hitter either - is extremely valuable. But the price and age combination is very dicey. Can he play CF at an acceptable level into his mid 30s? If so, he can slide down to 75% of his production and still be a 4 win player - not a bargain but very much a plus. But the odds against that are high - just as the odds against him increasing his production enough when he is forced to a corner position.

Choo is one of the league's best OBP guys ... that is more of a lack of confidence in Nava than in Ellsbury. Choo would not be playing CF here. Bradley for Ellsbury WOULD be a downgrade, no doubt. But it is a 6 year age difference, and Bradley will be a capable starter from day 1. His glove is very good and his approach at the plate is so good that he can allow a .240 BA not to really be a problem.

I do agree that some pitchers can control BABIP - but that has to be something demonstrated over time. That Rodney's BABIP numbers tend to veer to the .280-.300 sort of range, essentially an "average" result, seems to show no evidence that he is one of those pitchers. And the walk rate thing - I'm not sure how much it has skyrocketed. His career walk rate is 11.5% (including his outlier 5.3% of last year), this year is 13.3% - above normal but not his worst year doing this.

No McCann - he is going to want years, and his body will not be able to sustain it, and I don't know whether he justifies being a DH in years 4 and 5. Drew going makes sense - convenient marriage, everyone has benefitted. Boegarts filling in is fine. At the same time, a Drew-Middlebrooks-Bogaerts SS-1B-3B rotation is not unreasonable either. Ellsbury will be hard to lose, but I get it - and Bradley will be a solid replacement. They could use another starter - who couldn't? I'd expect they'll try to extend Lester to something fair (5/75).

Well - they can answer it to a certain degree, although when you listen to ex-ballplayers on TV, there is good evidence they barely know why they were good in the first place (see Joe Morgan in particular). The win probability thing is a reasonable argument. That being said, you'd like to think an average pitcher can get 3 outs without giving up a run. And it's not speculation - Mark Melancon is not a special pitcher (we SAW that). Neither is Andrew Bailey, Brandon League, Fernando Rodney. They have all been successful at closing. It's also not a particularly specialized skill - teams switch who is in that role all the time to no great detriment. Now rotating guys in the 9th inning is dicey - it does seem like having a pitcher pitch the 9th has some value (the reason the 1996 Yankees kept Wetteland closing though his setup man was a lot better). But as far as WHO it is? There are a LOT of guys qualified - it's just whether the manager chooses him or not.

I think he has been the best reliever in the AL. But to me, for a reliever to win any Cy Young, he has to be extraordinary (and maybe Uehara qualifies - he has a case), and the field of starters has to be meh. Scherzer, Felix and Darvish have been plenty good to not warrant a reliever getting onto the podium.

I could see the Sox making an offer like that, 3 years premium value, maybe a no-trade.

He's not at all. He has had a marvelous season. But you need the right sort of year for a closer to get that consideration - and in almost all of those cases they are poor choices. Scherzer and King Felix are way way out in front of the rest of the field, with Yu probably being the best of the "everyone else" division. But Uehara's durability has been stunning, something I don't think a lot of people saw coming.