sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Magic Number formula 2nd place team has X losses ... suppose they win out, they have 162-X wins. 1st place team has to win 162-X+1 games to win the division (162-X+1) - (number of wins 1st place team currently has) = Magic Number. Obviously when 2nd place team loses, X goes up - and then a team wins their current wins goes up. So both drive the magic number down.
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9/10 @ The house Aubrey Huff built
sk7326 replied to Jacoby_Ellsbury's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Obviously Buchholz needs to be stretched out more. At the same time, clearly he could have pitched another inning without much effort. I think he should be able to get to the normal output by October. Honestly, last night could not have gone any better. -
Short answer on Drew: He would almost undoubtedly jump at a Qualifying Offer ... Which is the best reason for the Red Sox not to offer him one.
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This is one of the cases where Ellsbury wants to get back on the field, both for his next contract as well as this season. If he misses time it's because it's a real problem. For a guy with a reputation of "not exactly indestructible", playing with some level of nicks and dents is something he'd want to show to keep his FA star shining.
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About the best news possible all things considered ... Magic Number 12 for the division, 10 for a playoff spot. Better get his time off now - and Bradley and Victorino can cover it defensively.
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With a four month hole at 3B for sure. To be fair, Pedroia has not had an MVP level year like 2008, 2011 but this year is right in line with a typical good Pedroia season (and more or less in line with what the various prediction services predicted). He is still a major plus - bit less power than 2012 but much more consistency.
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Who's the next Daniel Nava (pleasant surprise out of nowhere)?
sk7326 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The question to me is about simply a guy with a significant developed major league talent. Brian Daubach had at least that much going for him (hitting righties) - while Morgan Burkhardt did not. Daniel Nava has an advanced approach and can hit right handed pitching. The question was could he upgrade the rest of his game to "acceptable" to let the good stuff shine through. The catchers are an interesting place to go - and if one of them had some elite glove in them, that would go a long way to being one of those guys. -
It's not quite as good an attack as 2003 (where the #8 hitter won the batting title and the #9 hitter hit 24 homeruns) ... but it has been it's equal for sheer depth and difficulty to negotiate.
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Easy call - Lester is a clear $15-$16M a year guy in this baseball economy. One of the league's most reliable starters - it is nice to not have to worry about one spot in the rotation. I could quibble that he is not amazing - but quality bulk is still very hard to find.
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With Middlebrooks coming back rejuvenated (yes he is not going to be an onbase machine but he should be able to be at least his 2012 self going forward) the lineup has 9 tough outs in it - where the lesser guys still have good approaches. The Sox will not have shortage of scoring chances - runs usually follow.
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We weren't going to go unbeaten. We had no business almost winning yesterday - took a rally to do even THAT. We were bound to lose here and there.
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The Red Sox have not flat run out of healthy pitchers this time around. Our rotation is healthy and the bullpen is in solid shape. I am not worried about the playoffs - just a seed.
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I saw the Aaron Boone homerun - I saw the ball roll through Buckner's legs - and then lose Game 7 to boot! (as an 8 year old) There was Bucky Dent when I was too young to notice. When Boone hit the homerun it was the first time I thought they would NEVER win. That said, that was all before two titles in 5 years, one in literally the sweetest way possible. Honestly after 2007 - and hell, the courageous almost comeback in 2008, I stopped having my summahs ruined. The collapse in 2011 was bad (and thank God I don't live in Boston anymore for something like that) but it is hard to have any sort of moral authority to whine anymore. As Bob Ryan said, the last decade of sports in Boston is the good old days of the future for folks my age. It is hard to get that crushed or angered by the non-victories.
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Scouts in the industry seem optimistic that there is a 50/50 or better shot he can stay at SS, so I am optimistic. It's not the height that inspires curiosity so much as the possibility he could add 30 pounds of muscle on a still-developing body and whether THAT could make him more 3B than SS material. But I am optimistic that it will be a non-issue for a while at least and that his bad could by that time play at whichever position no problemo.
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The prize for a declined QO is nice but not amazing now (a sandwich pick) - of the guys mentioned I'd expect only Ellsbury to get a QO, though Napoli is possible. The others to me are offers that are begging to be accepted. Salty I think the Sox work out a longer term deal - he is a useful catcher who could use a platoon partner but otherwise not bad - and honestly Swihart is a ways away and Lavarnway is better off reinventing himself as a DH-1B. Napoli at 1/14 would not be bad - a mild overpay but not a long term hitch.
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X is a 6'2, 190 lb 20 year old ... I think any considerations of moving him are in the longer term. The question is whether he will get too big for the position - considering his frame there is a chance to get a lot stronger. It will be a challenge for him potentially to maintain the agility to be able to play SS at a decent level as his body fills out.
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Well part of it is how much leeway he has (or whether it really mattered) to hold on to guys and not make a big splash. The Cubs ownership made a big splash to sign him (as opposed to the Red Sox who promoted him from within) so he should have more freedom to not make moves based on TV ratings. His free agent evaluation was not great (although almost all free agent signings are negative return) but he can build systems. Certainly his staffs have all been among the best - at the end of the day a lot of this is ownership priority. If ownership says NESN needs us to sign Carl Crawford, then all the talent evaluation doesn't matter.
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I thought that might have been true about sign and trades ... but I could not find anything online. I think the QO would make it hard for Drew to find another suitor - which is why he would undoubtedly accept his 1 year/14M. If the Red Sox - the luxury tax conscious Sox - are cool with paying $14M for a potential part timer, then the decision is easy. But I don't think that is a simple decision at all. My guess is he WON'T get extended a QO, and that the front office had planned for this to be a marriage of convenience all along. There is enough of a chance Drew will not get the QO on the market - and limiting his market does not actually get anything accomplished for anybody.
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With a QO, it becomes interesting - it could severely hamper his market. At the same time, I am not sure the Red Sox would want him accepting it - not if they really want to give Bogaerts a spin. If Drew accepts, the Red Sox have a $14 million (last year was $13.3M, so just a guess on the value of it this year) guy signed - and probably a tough contract to deal. (like what the Braves had to do with Rafael Soriano).
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It would have happened anyway. Football's attachment to gambling (and I include fantasy here) and what a perfect game it is for television - both (as well as how little it requires of fans) made its appeal kind of inevitable. Baseball did not help itself - although mostly by not selling the things that are appealing about the game now (as well as getting wood bats into kids hands across the board). But baseball was going to have a hard time regardless - fewer playing it younger, and it is hard to have a good "game of the week" culture when virtually every game is on television.
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Drew will get years from somebody - shortstop is a terrible position in the bigs these days (though lot of fascinating names on the farm like Lindor, Russell). After all Drew's 3 win season is going to put him 5th in the AL among non-peralta SS's and with a 20 game disadvantage. Drew has rebuilt his value and the industry is drowning in money ... the decision on him is all about organizational priorities - and I'd really rather not block Bogaerts. Also, the possibility of Drew taking a QO is significant - large enough that I am not sure I'd want to do it considering the variables.
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Infield could be a radical change next year - could also be fairly modest. Middlebrooks I think is safe at 3B. He is not September Will good - few are - but he is at least as capable as he was in his 2012 tour. He can be an above average 3B with below average on base skills but good power - which is a solid starter. Bogaerts has a 50-50 chance to win the starting job - and I think the Sox might be committed to it. Hard thing to project is his body, but we already knew that. 1B is the position I worry about the least - easiest job opening to fill, no reason you can't find an average guy or a good platoon without breaking the bank.
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I wouldn't be surprised at the calculation - but it was also a 32 year old who is on the "decline" phase of his career (on average) and had shown an inability to hit righties that was pronounced enough to raise questions about whether he could be an everyday player by year 3 of the deal. I guarantee nobody expected him to be a 5 win player who'll probably get a couple of downballot MVP votes. One of the funny things which has helped him though how it happened was unfortunate - is that he stopped switchhitting. His hamstring won't let him hit lefty, but when you look at his recent splits, he probably should not have been hitting lefty anyway.
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Most teams are awful in the 5th and 6th ... look at the garbage the Yankees wheeled out. Your best bet is always get the starters to the 7th - see what happens. Tazawa had a rough Thursday night in New York, but his splits do not really support any sky is falling scenario. He has had problems with leaving balls high in the zone all season - but has largely been very effective. Workman uncorked the wild pitch yesterday but he has shown that he can be relatively useful in the bullpen. All of this is a million miles from really what has changed since the break - the offense. The Sox pitching has been pretty consistent. 3rd in FIP in August, 4th in July. The offense in July dipped to 5th in wOBA, and up to 2nd if August (and obviously shattering the scale in September). Napoli has climbed out of his slump and "above average third baseman" Will Middlebrooks has had an inordinately huge impact on the offense since his return, since the guys he was replacing were so useless.
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Nap has been fine - clearly our strongest hitter (his homeruns have gone the farthest, just rating raw sheer strength). He swings at strikes for the most part and has gotten on base despite a shaky BA. Defensively he has not even been that bad. I'd bring him back if no substantial term upgrade is available at 1B.