sk7326

It's not really that sophisticated - Rob Neyer was writing about back in his ESPN days ... very few hitters improve walk rates during their careers. Certainly in scouting circles, plate discipline has been emphasized more in the post-moneyball era because it is not something that is going to just magically appear. I am not sure if it is necessarily driven by development backgrounds, although the anecdotal evidence is interesting. As much as it is tempting to say that the American system breeds this - all you need to do is listen to supposedly smart baseball folks like Dusty Baker or Joe Morgan to know that there is a LOT of defense of low-discipline living. You can get by in the league without plate discipline - and be really good even. But that means you have Nomar or Vlad Guerrero's (or Yasiel Puig) talent, and that's a pretty short list.

Oh we don't get to where we are this season without Dempster. Even at his worst, he has given starts which would have been taken up by incomparably worse pitchers - certainly we would have made the playoffs in 2011 if he was on the team. His numbers are a liability as a starter - but if you look at how he has done early in games, and his strikeout rate - he profiles as a serious bullpen asset for the postseason. The one run games are largely coin flips (Oakland who of course lost a series with home field advantage) ... Red Sox look pretty good in a bullpen v bullpen match with anybody. At the end of the day, the playoffs involve winning 11 games after having to slog through nearly 6 months of everyday baseball. Total crapshoot, and the best team often does not win. (heck it's been a decade since the NL has had the league's best team imo)

Plate discipline is born, not made - I agree and a lot of the statistics back it up. You get the occasional Sammy Sosa who truly transforms over time - but for the most part you are what you are and improvement can only help so much. Now, general approach can be learned a bit - although in a Middlebrooks case it is more like being able to spoil pitches that get him out and making more hard contact. Nava and Youk have the plate discipline part of the thing down. For Middlebrooks - the question is whether he can produce enough on-base to get to his power. What is true is that he is a very good athlete - and it is not a good idea to bet against a terrific athlete figuring this stuff out.

Well, all the teams hit a little better at home. But when you get to the postseason - home field has had very little bearing on outcomes. Wild Card teams have won playoff series - and do so frequently. Dempster was fine tonight - we know he is not going to make the postseason rotation, but he showed a lot of his value for the team in October.

The who's #1 argument is a bit moot ... none of our guys will be pitching 3 times - and with our depth, none should have to - in a best of seven. Really where the #1 matters is: who will pitch Game 5 of the Division Series. Lester is still the safe bet here - with some questions lingering about whether Buchholz can go 110 pitches back to back on 4 days rest (I think he can, but it hasn't happened yet).

Year 2 was a vesting option though right? His appearances this year triggered it no?

The Red Sox traded for Gonzalez - a 28 year old coming off of all-star/near MVP sort of seasons with the idea that they'd get 3 or 4 more of those seasons. That was a solid bet - but the problem is that since Gonzalez (like Abreu) is a big lumbering 1B who is not a great athlete and pretty slow (even if they can defend the heck out of 1B), is that any slippage offensively destroys his value very quickly. Abreu is younger but profiles very similarly too. There is a pretty strong downside - the scouting reports online indicate "average bat speed" (eek!) and he is already Cespedes' age without the athletic upside (let alone that of Puig), and neither of those guys just rolled out of bed and into the big leagues immediately - in some of the same sorts of ways. As far as I can tell, the clubhouse stuff is more writer-inspired fluff.

Yeah - a lot of it was that. Clearly Wednesday, Farrell was trying to steal that game in Tampa after he had none of the good relievers available. By my count - if we assume an 11 man staff (which I would given Farrell's preferences all season), you have: Lester/Buch/Peavy/Lackey in the rotation, Dempster as a swing man, Uehara/Tazawa/Breslow/Workman as relievers. That leaves 2 spots - I think Morales will get one of them ... he is clearly the best "high leverage" choice among him, De La Rosa and Thornton. The last spot I think depends a lot on their analysis of Doubront. If they just evaluate that his struggles of late are a result of him hitting an innings wall, he might just be a candidate for the DL and another reliever shows up. Farrell could also just stick with 10 pitches - which is my preference but would be counter to how Farrell has deployed his staff all season. That said, the postseason bullpen will have at least two legit 6-out options in Dempster and Workman. (you could add Morales there if you wanted) With more options for multi inning relief, I'd pounce on the chance to try to sneak Berry onto the active playoff roster for instance.

I'd even be willing to say Koji was a value play too ... he had a strong track record, but serious durability questions prevented him from getting, oh let's say "Proven Closer" sort of money. The Red Sox did not have to extend a large commitment to him - certainly nothing they'd regret if he flamed out. Koji of course has worked out beyond anyone's wildest expectations - in terms of working back to back days, and being able to negotiate the occasional >3 out save. In fact, he has been so good this year - that even if he sucks next year with his money guaranteed or whatever, his contribution would STILL be a net win for the Red Sox.

Gonzalez wasn't a cancer - he did not invent Kyle Weiland out of thin air. He just declined in ability in 2012 - and we can call it a legit decline because in LA it has not returned. Basically he went from an MVP candidate to Mike Napoli at twice the price. Similarly Napoli's strikeouts aren't that important - they do look bad though.

I doubt Napoli can get 3/39 from the open market, especially with a 1st rounder. But he is pretty clearly the top domestic free agent 1B. (you could argue Kendrys Morales as possibly the only one close) While I agree there won't be teams lining up to give him $14/yr long term - he should not have that much trouble finding a team that will guarantee more than $14M of his contract, whatever the terms are. Would you pay $14M for 1 year of Napoli at a 2013 level? Without a doubt. Also, I think the Red Sox would be fine with him coming back to be their 1B - Abreu is interesting, but the Red Sox have laid out for a 1B in his "prime" before and it did not go amazingly. It's not a requirement for this team to be good.

Whole point of low risk, high reward is to throw a lot of bodies at an answer - Big Papi is obviously your wildest dream. That will almost never happen. But Hideki Okajima for one particularly important season before he turned into a pumpkin? Flags fly forever, and so thus you go fishing again. The question about "how many low risk high reward guys worked out" is really funny - that is the whole point, that not many will work out. But with something like relief pitching, where guys are wildly inconsistent across the board, throwing stuff at the wall is the percentage play.

If Drew turns down a QO, then it means that he becomes a free agent + your first round pick. That severely narrows the market for him. Basically it's a team like the Mariners who won't have to cede a pick. Given the gambles he and Boras saw Bourn and Lohse lose out on this offseason - he'll almost certainly take the deal and the Red Sox would then have a $14M block of Bogaerts (or a $14M utility player). Napoli has no such problem. He turns down the QO, he is betting he can find someone to guarantee him something like 2/20 and not worry as much about the pick. That is not wildly unlikely. He takes the QO, the Red Sox have their starting 1B then - on a perfect deal, and he's not blocking anybody.

Napoli's QO is a no-brainer ... Drew's QO I think is a no-go ... and Salty I could argue both sides though I'd prefer not to

I did. Sticking with Fangraphs, just because I am too lazy to check out Baseball Reference: Gomes, 0.7 fWAR, .332 wOBA, .230/.340/.418 ... 347 PAs Carp, 1.2 fWAR, .395 wOBA, .306/.372/.549 ... 218 PAs Nava, 1.9 fWAR, .370 wOBA, .306/.392/.452 ... 493 PAs Napoli 3.5 fWAR, .366 wOBA, .262/.357/.485 ... 546 PAs Effectively Napoli has been twice as effective as the Carp-Gomes combination (add up plate appearances and they are roughly comparable). Nava and Napoli are more comparable, though Napoli's ability to slug makes up for Nava's better on base ability. And relative to their positions, defensively this year has been no comparison - Napoli has been a downright above average 1B, while Nava has been a poor corner outfielder. Of course Napoli is better than 2 role players ... in a land with finite roster spots, why use two guys for one guy's job? Even if Gomes/Carp were equal together to Napoli at 1B, why would you split the job if you don't have to? Now, I advocate splitting the job if you can't find a full time stud. But if you can't and Napoli does it for a very fair price, and no long term commitment, so much the better. I think it is clear Napoli's 2010 is one giant flashing neon "fluke". What he is this year is probably who he is - basically the best beer league softball player you've ever seen. But that is a valuable guy - and I think with guys like him, fans see all those strikeouts and confuse it with him not being good. I call it the Bellhorn Syndrome jokingly. We're so conditioned by little league and silly things managers said in the 1980s that strikeouts are this horrible travesty when they are just outs.

Here is thing about the QO decision ... Step 1: If he took it, would it f-up your plans? ... Step 2: Would there be a significant chance he would decline it? (which of course depends on his evaluation of the market for his services with the pick penalty) For Napoli, Step 1 is basically no - you get a guy who'd you'd be happy to start on an exactly fair price. Step 2: Also a yes, because he can probably get multiple years from somebody (with at least that money in terms of reachable upside) So to me the Red Sox can give him a QO without losing any sleep. Would it affect the Abreu pursuit? Not really - at the end of the day they can afford to lose a bidding war for a 1B.

I said "might" - I have not spent much time thinking of it ... but Middlebrooks' ceiling is considerable. If he can clean up enough that his on-base is not a real drag (see Soriano, Alfonso for what a "real drag" is) he can be very good.

Oh he is ... no significant platoon spirit, gets on base at a good clip - obviously most raw power on the team. He is a bit of a "three true outcomes" sort of guy - but from a hitter's perspective, how you make outs really doesn't matter at all.

Cecchini certainly has a good longterm prognosis - Middlebrooks is definitely more the high end ath-a-lete who is figuring out the baseball stuff. We know that with Middlebrooks the path to a solid OBP (and .320-.330 is solid for instance without being amazing) is via good contact rates and whatnot. It is clear how the FO thinks the game - it is also the same FO which promoted this player, with all of the known information on him to starting 3B. So they do also value (and have with draft after draft) athletic ability ... beer leaguers aren't sufficient either. The question with Middlebrooks is whether he can get on base enough to let the other stuff shine through. Looking at his line in September, .289/.319/.578 will be sufficient. Cecchini might have more upside - I am not going to argue that - but Middlebrooks can absolutely be an above average third baseman. The last two months of him certainly is.

Well, power and on-base percentage. The patience thing for a guy like him can't be overstated. Even when his ability to make contact went into the tank, he was STILL getting on base at a .300ish sort of clip - which is not good, but playable for a guy in a slump. He is a good hitter from the standpoint that he has a game plan and doesn't give at-bats away. Obviously if his "batted ball" skill were more like 2008 Kevin Youkilis, he'd be one of the dozen or so best hitters in baseball (like Yook was). But this is plenty good.

Middlebrooks is going to give you these waves. He is not a patient hitter, so all of his offensive punch will be in the hits (or lack thereof). But clearly the power is there, and since his demotion, his mechanics have been simpler. Swing is a more compact, lower half is not as busy. We'll have to live with the fluctuations at the plate, but there is no reason he can't be an above average defensive 3B who gives power and below average sort of On Base. That is a solid starter.

Sox will absolutely give Nap a QO. His contribution this year clearly justifies a 1/14. I think it's not at all bad idea for them - with Nap - to be content for another year. He has old man skills - and if his bat speed goes down another notch or so he is unplayable - so I'd hesitate to go more than a year or two at a time with him. On a team with terrific approaches, his might be the best. What was it Buster Olney showed - Boston leads the ML in Pitches seen - by such a wide margin that 2nd place (Minnesota) is closer to 18th place than 1st (or something)

OK - Buchholz clearly needs to figure out the downward plane on his stuff ... command is shaky but clearly he is healthy and his stuff has not dipped in quality. So the rotation looks to be in good shape, and the "Back 4" in the bullpen is clear (Workman, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow). Figuring out the rest of the staff is another issue - including whether to go with an 11 man unit or a 10 man one. But team is peaking here - oh what a few healthy pitchers can do!

Fun game - tried to steal it with the "other guys" bullpen. Good result either way.

Here is the thing with the Red Sox moves at 1B. 1B is an easy position to fill. Adam LaRoche level production is not difficult to find - and you can cobble together a platoon for dirt cheap that effectively manages that. Look - the Red Sox have managed to basically get (if you use the $6M figure Fangraphs uses per win) $36 million of production for 1B/LF out of Mike Napoli and a couple of minimum salary-ish guys (Nava and Carp). If they think Abreu is a legit solution, they can set a price. Yes they'll pay a winner's curse premium (as you do for all free agents) - but if the bidding gets crazy, they have a very viable alternatiive. That is why QO'ing Napoli is a no-brainer here - he has been a very effective 1B here, and there is no reason to think they can't get another quality year of production from him. (in fact, going a year at a time with him would be ideal)