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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    What is meaningful is that they are good numbers against a very high level of competition. Which probably is a better way to get to the answers people want.
  2. sk7326
    A game like last proves why holds are stupid.
  3. sk7326
    It might be true - but I could construct a similar fuzzy story for Betts, for Pedroia, for Bogaerts - and all have contributed more than Ortiz has ... none of this denigrates Papi's season - which has been the best Age 40 season in history (certainly in the short list). I certainly believe that a DH can be an MVP - but since offense is the only thing he can touch in terms of helping the team win, that offense has to carry a lot of weight. That is hard to do - this century only Barry Bonds and ARod delivered that kind of performance.
  4. sk7326
    Britton has been wonderful - he has also had a lot of clean save opportunities. I could argue that Andrew Miller has been better this season among relievers. He probably should get a look in the rotation again. (Britton, not Miller)
  5. sk7326
    Runs Allowed is a better starting point than ER since Earned Runs are - to put it kindly - problematic as a measure. Also ERA- is a rate stat, and bulk actually does matter for a season award.
  6. sk7326
    agreed - i expect the bullpen will be on speed dial the third time through the order no matter who pitches
  7. sk7326
    of course it is small sample - and using the postseason as a (not specifically addressing you, since i got a couple of replies here) clutch mcclutcherson end point is a bit off ... after all Price as a deadline pickup as the Jays were making their charge was flat out magnificent - i am sure several of those starts were clutch. he has had some starts which got away from him - especially third and fourth time through. But I hesitate to get too into the weeds about coming up big. After all, Jon Lester blew leads in the two do-or-die starts in his career ... A lot of Price's results last postseason involved his skipper getting greedy and wasting what were largely gems.
  8. sk7326
    Betts is even more ... and Bogaerts, Bradley and Pedroia have very legitimate claims ...
  9. sk7326
    1. The lack of defense 2. I am for DH's being recognized as legitimate. But the threshhold has to be high, and Ortiz - who has been completely outstanding - has not lapped the field offensively enough to make up for the lack of contribution in other areas. Plus, he has played considerably less than other candidates - due to managing his feet. To me, it's Trout or Betts ... with Altuve and Donaldson a step down but totally reasonable.
  10. sk7326
    best pitcher i ever saw in the best season i saw him pitch gave up 9 runs without being able to get out of the 4th in an outing ... there has been more ace than not later in the season. the narrative about him in the post season is silly - but clearly without changing results it will follow him (like is does with kershaw).
  11. sk7326
    Has been clear hit or miss - sometimes manager was asleep when he has facing batters 4th time through ... he was obviously brilliant in the highest leverage spot of his career (as we'd know) Farrell will manage more aggressively with this stuff in the postseason - he did in 2013. Nice thing the pen is in the position so that Farrell does not have to pay those 3rd and 4th time through penalties.
  12. sk7326
    so i guess we have to see what happens in the future ... one thing you can guarantee is that Espinoza won't have the Age 19 season Pedro had - since Pedro pitched 177 innings that year, and that would never happen now. Sometimes it's not magic - it's something that has been true even in high school for normal folks - the real stars aren't guys who crush JV, they are the freshmen who don't can hang (not even dominate, just be competent) at the varsity level. Certainly Espinoza's career has tracked there - the ability to handle guys in a league he's super young for. It's the same reason Devers star has not waned at all despite superficially unsexy stats.
  13. sk7326
    Did he? Numbers pretty similar - don't know much about whether that league is more pitcher or hitter friendly.
  14. sk7326
    Price's season has been a disappointment overall ... he was not disappointing in the last 2 months, and he has been a Top 10-15 pitcher over that time. And even when he has not been that, he has been a workhorse - which was especially important as the bullpen was stumbling along. The season has been bad by David Price standards, decent by normal ones - with lots of evidence that the "bad stuff" was a fluke.
  15. sk7326
    Pedro's Age 18 season was in a partial season league - and he had a WHIP then of 1.48. They actually track pretty closely with regards to Age 18 seasons. Espinoza just pitched more innings (100 vs 77) in a higher level of baseball (a full season league).
  16. sk7326
    My hope would be for the league to give the sox an extra sandwich round pick. It's the lowest cost, least disruptive way to address this I think commesurate to the offense.
  17. sk7326
    I think that is fair - and bWAR starts with actual runs allowed in real life, so that could be better for a backwards looking metric. Kluber is the runaway leader in pitcher's bWAR.
  18. sk7326
    Not really ... first of all, walks and strikeouts hardly correlate at all (among qualified ML starters, the correlation was tiny, like -0.05). K/BB implies there is a zero-sum nature to this which is not borne out by any sort of evidence. Second, if not making good contact can drive positive results (evidence is there that this is true, but it's not high) - the list of players who can induce weak contact without inducing NO contact is small (and perhaps non-existent). Strikeout rate is your best evidence of dominant stuff, that your pitches work. The best pitchers pitch to contact - the hitter still can't actually hit it though.
  19. sk7326
    Now if you wanted to be creative - and I would not be surprised if it at least came up in the org meetings - perhaps you think about seeing if Ramirez is comfortable moving over to 3B. So instead of carrying Hill, look at Ramirez at 3B and Chris Young at 1B as your lefty platoon, while just letting Benintendi ride in LF. Now I am certain this won't happen - but I'd at least consider it.
  20. sk7326
    Possible. I think they need to figure out if they think he can help at all. His bullpen experience in the past means you have to at least consider him.
  21. sk7326
    Zero chance - indeed the Padres did not break any statutes. I mean they violated league understanding - and best practices and ethics ... hence the suspension. The BEST you can get is some additional negotiation. And I am not betting that.
  22. sk7326
    well it's relief pitching - just stack bodies and bodies (preferably bodies with wipeout pitches) and attrition it out.
  23. sk7326
    It is useful to look at them both ... here is a good explanation of the differences: http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/8/28/3273844/which-war-works-best-pitching-version There is a case for bWAR - because you are dealing with actual runs allowed - and you are trying to evaluate who delivered the most value in the past. Kluber is significantly in the lead there. fWAR is better for predictive value
  24. sk7326
    No, K's mean a pitcher IS dominating ... the reason K's for hitters matters less is that from the hitter's view it is them against the defense ... quickly exporting fangraphs data on this stuff K-BB rate correlates at a -.411 rate with runs allowed K rate is -.51625 So the K% (which is the right stat to go with here, not K or BB per 9) tracks better. K rate correlates to WHIP even better (-.56025). Strikeouts - in a large sample, in the long run - is your most likely path to the other stuff (allowing baserunners which goes to allowing runs) OPS is the a terrific training wheel stat if you don't want to deal with advanced stuff - but of course it is profoundly flawed. (mismatched denominators, mismatched scale, severely underrating half of it) Runs allowed is all that matters - the most likely way to get there is the guy who does not allow baserunners. The guy who does that most likely is striking people out. I think it's a toss up between Sale, Kluber and Porcello - and Porcello will probably win (even if some of the voters will use the wrong logic - Pedroia 2008 MVP).
  25. sk7326
    GOod call - as bell's post above indicates, I forgot he existed. Again, it is striking that this is a tough decision because everybody's form is good. Imagine saying that in July. The tricky thing is with Pomeranz in the pen, would he get some of Ross' work or is he kept in a glass case in case of a bad start only. And do you carry 12 pitchers vs 11?
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