sk7326

I think FIP is unkind to knuckleballers for the reasons we have discussed. The stat is not flawed - it's measurement is correct given the assumptions behind it. I think those assumptions breakdown for a pitcher like Wakefield. I also think Wake's value to a team (which also describes knuckleballers) sort of stands outside of those figures.

What would it be? A good rum and ...

Bradley is probably the best defensive CF today. Given Mookie Betts is pretty clearly one of those sorts of athletes who can pick up just about anything given enough reps, and was possibly the best RF in the league by the end of the season - I am pretty sure he'd be a better CF if he did it regularly enough.

wrong denominator = Maddux very frequently was near or over 20% K-rate, which is plenty good. Much higher than Glavine, Suppan, etc. FIP controls for two things. Strand rate - which is a good thing (that is pretty random), and batted balls, which is much dicier (it's not random, but it does not seem that many pitchers can control it). The latter drives your problem. Individual pitchers can be really good without striking out hitters - but it's fairly rare and there has to be damn good reason. Otherwise you have to assume that it's just a guy on a really good team (which describes Ford and Palmer quite nicely).

They traded a ton of upside - but got a lot out of it (Pomeranz deal aside). The question has always been whether this front office can keep the coffers full. I was hoping Buchholz could yield at least a low-probability high upside sort of dude.

He was also very good in August/September. The question was whether his awful summer was health related or not. Let's put it this way - if he is still a 5 win player, he is worth trading for. It's an open question - but that he was a near 6 win player two seasons ago is still extremely positive. Bradley is an interesting case - he will be 27 fairly early into 2017 - and his 2016 was one superb month around a couple of terrible months and otherwise decent. I like him - and the Sox are pretty stacked without having to deal him, so that's nice. I am not thoroughly convinced he is even the best CF on his own team.

He is the big fish - Mets have been rumored on those discussions. According to the stuff at the winter meetings, the Pirates seem pretty intent on dealing him. (not for zero - and not a fire sale, but they know they can get the most value for him while he is not a pure rental). Obviously the Mets would have to trade their top young upside (like Conforto, Rosario) to get him and perhaps would not want to do that. But a healthy Cutch is a Top 10 player - hard not to think that is their endgame if anything.

Either way this is all posturing in McCutchen talks.

I'd ask for Conforto and a minor leaguer at minimum. Whether you think 2016 is a fluke (I do - a little), a controllable quality CF is valuable, especially to the Mets who have to use Cespedes to fake it there.

There are a lot of options for #5 starter - so this is not an issue. But his ability to possibly swing between the bullpen and rotation could have helped. I'm not sad about his departure - but it does remove a little bit of flexibility for the pitching staff.

17 year old with a good strikeout rate is intriguing - too young to go to the AFL anyway. An 18 year old possibly in a full season league becomes a very interesting prospect.

Knuckleballers often have very low BABIP - which is worth noting. Of course there is some extreme volatility. Strikeout rate is not a perfect predictor. But it is hard to carry a low one without actually being on a terrific team. Nobody said it correlated perfectly - but it correlates really well, especially for starters. Peak Maddux was a strikeout pitcher.

Clear dump for a 24 year old in Single A. A sack of potatoes has more value.

Wait, it hasn't already? I don't think the Nation can rest until Sale negotiates his first Friday Night Fenway start without incident.

The marketing folks should just invent throwback ideas to mess with him.

Pedroia Betts - want your best hitter 2nd Bogaerts Ramirez Benintendi (some DH) Sandoval (some C) Bradley

As Bill Barnwell noted, the Sox probably should just run their Saint Patrick's day jersey design past Sale - just to be safe.

JH has largely been unhinged in most of his media forays since the end of 2015. He went from a soft spoken guy who believed in quantitative modeling and whatnot and turned into a parody of Steinbrenner.

Price had a large gap between fWAR and bWAR for the reasons you cited - but that's okay. I think Price's fundamentals were more repeatable. Individual control of FIP is very very dicey - it's probably not 0, but it's not 100 and varies a lot by pitcher. The gap in fWAR I think reflected that Price is much more likely to deliver better performance going forward - which was true. Strikeout rate is still the best simple measure of pitcher quality.

Fast tracking vs not fast tracking is really about each individual player and the org plan. That is why looking at the numbers on the farm is such a dicey proposition. The job at the minor league level is not to win - a pitcher could have a 4.50 ERA because he is being told to throw his 3rd best pitch a lot. Benintendi was the Golden Spikes winner playing in the toughest college league in the country - the Sox started him in Lowell and Greenville, and he crushed them, but that was also inferior competition to what he had been facing at Arkansas. He had inferior superficial numbers to Moncada this season on the farm, but clearly was much better equipped to succeed with the big club. He showed the evaluators stuff that they needed to see from him Devers is so young - he had a good season in Salem, making a lot of contact. Has he done enough to start at AA? Possibly - but it is really about whether he fulfilled the org goals. Devers was among the youngest regulars in High A and if he is in AA he will be the youngest regular there too. I tend to believe the old adage - players make these decisions for the org largely.

1. Who cares? 2. Really it is about who does it matter to the most? I think Porcello as a hat tip to his remarkable turnaround.

ERod was one of their four best starters by the end of last season - he is a stock you buy. The numbers problem is solveable in more sensible ways.

It also would be a lesser pick anyway

WAR is a counting stat - so bulk matters. It definitely is not a be-all and end-all, but nobody said it was. It is an excellent starting point for identifying player value though. fWAR is probably a better metric to evaluate future performance, while bWAR might be better for awards and such.

Espinoza could bust - but he has an immense ceiling. And ceiling is what a team like the Red Sox have their farm system for. Anderson was a clear bust - although I am not sure the industry (or the Sox) would value that sort of player to the same degree anymore. The Red Sox philosophy the past several years - get good athletes, with an emphasis on up the middle - is a strong idea - bet on the athlete. Sometimes it really works (Betts), sometimes it works a little (Middlebrooks) and others it doesn't. I don't think Anderson really fit that dossier.