sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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I look at this way. The team is 22-21 ... an 83-84 win pace ... with very few things going right (Sale, Rodriguez, Kelly, Kimbrel - that's it), against a fairly stern schedule. I think there is a measure of credit here for the team to keep its head above water while a lot of things just haven't gone too well.
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Who is the worst pitcher in Red Sox history?
sk7326 replied to Northern Star's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
He was ... but he was a ghastly watch at times ... like Matsuzaka. Not finding the strike zone, working slowly. Dice-K's 2008 was the worst "good" pitcher I ever saw. -
OPS is good for its purpose (to me) - which is a good training wheel statistic for people who have been raised on batting average and RBIs. Now OBP matters more - even if you did not have the correlation in front of you ... a team with a 1.000 SLG could be retired (1 homerun and 3 outs) while a team with a 1.000 OBP would never finish a batting inning. That said, it HAS been annoying to watch. But the indicators lean strongly toward this turning around.
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a little bit of a red herring here ... OBP and SLG are not independent. While OBP is a lot more important, they are going to correlate quite a bit. The Sox 4th/19th split is truly unusual - again, everything they are doing indicates this will solve itself. Team is 6th in the league in line drive rate, 4th in hard contact, 4th in doubles. Now the interesting thing is that the Sox are the hardest team in the league to strike out by a mile (the 2nd place Astros are closer to 16th than they are to the Sox). Has there been a connection between contact and trying to lift the ball. I don't know. That is the interesting question to me.
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Probably - but I do think Dombrowski won't be deterred. The question is whether they think the kid can handle batting 9th, and figuring out stuff on the fly. Once you get to the bigs, instruction is harder. Butterfield is an industry admired fielding coach - but obviously, with games every night - there is a lot of self study required.
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Trout could have won the last 5 MVPs!!! Keith Law once talked about his scouting story - and how everybody missed on Trout's evaluation. Trout was in high school in New Jersey - which was a problem anyway, after the Orioles disaster with Billy Riddell. But his high school senior season iirc was 2009 - with that brutal winter. Scouts simply couldn't get in to see him play - the games kept getting cancelled.
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i don't know if its decided yet. I'd go Devers too.
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Who is the worst pitcher in Red Sox history?
sk7326 replied to Northern Star's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I don't know who is "worst" ... but Matt Clement is probably the worst "watch" ... Dice-K (though he was good) was also agonizing to watch -
Now I'll argue some nuance here. Kimbrel is (or would be) more valuable as he is asked to enter games in 8th innings from time to time. It's not just coming in with the bases empty. (which happens most of the time, but it's a long season and managing wear is okay) My issue is the notion (which I think some of the "pro paying big money" sentiment gets to) that the 9th inning is some sort of magical formula which requires paying a guy a lot of money. For the most part, it is just not that difficult a job.
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I agree - but it also depends on the kid. Scouting the stat line is a problem in any direction.
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He did draw 3 walks in these 5 games and the strikeouts are not crazy either - we'll see how he rides through this - but again, it seems like something a ball finding a gap can fix.
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There are very few managers who (tactically) add value. Francona - in terms of handling the pitching staff - qualifies. But - in terms of the lineup - even with Cleveland - he is not much of a tinkerer ... it's really hard to make much of a dent there.
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All of this. Managing is really hard. Hell, simply being the Red Sox' press secretary (which is part of the job) would drive most people insane.
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I think the stat line helps ... but really it is about whether he just deal with the lesser level of instruction. Can he make the adjustments on the fly - turn scouting reports and video analysis into action at the plate? Is he ready for (what I imagine could be) a fairly lonely situation. (although it helps there are a lot of young guys on the team - he'd be the only one who couldn't go to a watering hole) If those answers are fine - there is almost no chance he'd be worse than status quo at 3B. Now this doesn't mean I won't give Sandoval a chance - but Devers deserves credit for making this a conversation we're having in May 2017.
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Funny
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From scouting fwiw, there is very little chance Moncada stays at 2B (there is a reason more 2B look like Pedroia than like Dez Bryant). Breathe - the team is playing .500ish ball ... just like the Cubs and the Guardians. They're 0.5 games out of a playoff spot. It has been a weird season so far - since the team has not actually been able to string anything together - good or bad. You are right about the Pomeranz deal and the Kimbrel one to a point. Sale - the price hurts some, but he is a really great pitcher. So far, DD's tenure includes a playoff berth, and a team with good chances of adding more. Now that is not all him - but no reason to panic yet.
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Fair enough - but again, the building blocks of runs - baserunners, solid contact ... all of that is still there. I wish the team were winning more games - but given how rough the start has been (injuries, luck) ... I am betting the over still
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They are 15th in the bigs in runs scored - but somehow 3rd in OBP and tops in lowest K-rate. I am pretty sure there were 35 games like this a year ago. There is more reason to expect improvement than regression (or even status quo).
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nothing that a few balls finding gaps won't fix. Generating tons of baserunners - not giving away outs. Essentially a middle of the pack offense with the underlying performance of a much better one, Really poor luck as much as anything right now.
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I think Pablo will get a fair chance. And if Devers comes up it is after the break - probably on the road. Just bat him 9th and let him figure it out.
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I think you are probably looking at for likelihood by July 50% Pablo 20% Devers 20% Patchwork (rotating cast - basically now) 10% Someone else The bar is very low for the position given what they have been getting.
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I do too. Last year just showed that A) Moncada was a little bit further away than it looked (but not at all "behind") The "bust" end of his range of outcomes (read Castillo, Rusney) was a little lower than it looked a year ago. The White Sox are in a better position for him to be a good player. They are not playing for 2017 - they can make moves with a longer view with him.
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I think the issue of dealing him was that he WAS going to be fairly low ceiling offensively - BUT if this what he is (modest power, average to above average on-base, good defense) ... that is a quality starter right now, and even if he doesn't get one bit better that is very valuable given cost control. The deal on its face is okay - Sox dealt surplus to get something they lacked. Could they have spun a blocked guy like Margot into more? I think so - but that is fair game at least.
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Guerra's stock has fallen as far as any 22 year old would - which is "some, but not that much". Plenty of time to bounce back from a rotten season.
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the market is pretty crazy ... now we can argue market efficiency (giggle, giggle) but whatever. I think what DD has done on this front is not atypical. And you can't deny Kimbrel's 55% K rate. This version of him is worth the bother - last year's model less so. I am happy with the output. He is starting to live up to his deal.