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FredLynn

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Everything posted by FredLynn

  1. FredLynn
    Anyone think five runs is enough with Owens pitching? I just hope he can make it through five with a lead of a couple of runs.
  2. FredLynn
    I would be happy if he can give up five innings and leave with his team ahead. He is really not very good at all....most #6 SP are not too good.
  3. FredLynn
    Wonder who we could get for the #7 overall pick in 2013
  4. FredLynn
    Fact is, we are stuck with our current rotation now, at least until the trade deadline. Hopefully they will improve enough for us to start winning more consistently.
  5. FredLynn
    I could have lived with that.
  6. FredLynn
    I am arguing because I am of a different opinion than you are. Where would we put either of those guys? Assuming we still have our current SP. I would have had no problem signing Latos for $3M as insurance for Buchholz, but not at the cost of getting rid of CB. Latos was also a risk, given what he did last year.
  7. FredLynn
    I just used those two teams as examples. I didn't take the time to fully research the injury history of every team. I did find one source, fangraphs, that shows that for the 2013 season the Sox were in the middle third for days lost due to injury (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-disabled-list-team-data/) Sure, in an ideal world DD would have obtained another TOTR SP (at great cost, no doubt). I do not think that was a realistic expectation after obtaining an ace. Henry simply isn't going to pay for that. Hence, we are stuck with a relatively cheap, if fragile, Clay Buchholz. Edit: one more graph, from 2002-2011 showing the Sox in the middle of the pack in terms of player days lost on the DL: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/10-year-disabled-list-trends/
  8. FredLynn
    First, I think we can stipulate that Buchholz has something to prove vis a vis injuries. And we can also stipulate that Kelly belongs in the pen where he is less likely to get hurt because he won't be throwing as many pitches. Porcello was horrible last year; but the year before that he had an ERA+ of 113 and his ERA had gone down for three consecutive years. In addition, he has averaged nearly 200 IP for the seven years before this one. Finally, the Red Sox have no monopoly on injuries. Just off the top of my head, I believe the Yankees lost Pineda for a whole season. And currently the Orioles have had Gausman, Gallardo, and Matusz on the DL already this year; the Rays have Cobb and Boxberger on the DL. I am not sure the Red Sox even have a worse than average injury profile. No team makes it through the year injury free.
  9. FredLynn
    Wright has an ERA of 1.4. He is going to regress from that. Don't forget that he would likely be our #5 SP. If he can manage to keep his ERA around 4 I would be thrilled. As for injuries: they happen to all teams. I am not sure that the Red Sox are going to have an injury profile that is much worse than league average. Thats really the key to getting a ring: keeping our major players healthy. And thats a crapshoot.
  10. FredLynn
    Its likely $13.5M; its only $14M if he finished first or second in Cy Young balloting (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml#contracts). The fact of the matter is that he is all ours, probably for the rest of the season. I don't think thats such a bad thing. I am curious to see if somehow he can combine durability with performance, for once, this year.
  11. FredLynn
    If he cannot manage to stay healthy this year or if he cannot perform well then we should definitely see what we can get for him next offseason. In my mind, this is his last chance to that he can pitch at least 170 innings and pitch well.
  12. FredLynn
    The time to trade him has passed. If we were able to get a pitcher equally as good but less fragile during the offseason that would have been a great move. Right now we are going to have to give him a chance to keep healthy, for once. I don't see them getting rid of him this year.
  13. FredLynn
    Lets assume they do the right thing and move Kelly to the pen and keep Wright in the SR. Once ERod returns we would then be pretty well set for our starting five-as long as they stay healthy. I am not sure where they would park another "dependable pitcher" who would, essentially, be our #6 SP. Good #6 SP are hard to come by. I don't see another way to handle it other than assume Buchholz is going to get injured before the season started, trade him, and try to get a "more dependable" SP, if we could find one. Maybe Miley is available again.
  14. FredLynn
    I agree about the fragility issue. Thats his Achilles heel. That said, for the past four years, 2012-2015 inclusive, he has averaged 145 IP with an average ERA+ of 134. Two great years; two bad ones. If you project his salary based on 200 IP (200/145x$13M) you come out at just under $18M/yr for a pitcher with an ERA+ of 134. Ordinarily that would be a great deal for the Red Sox, but because his fragility has additional costs (ie, finding someone else to take his place when he gets hurt) I think its just a fair contract. Basically, I agree with you: its not an overpay. I don't see a pressing need to get rid of him just yet.
  15. FredLynn
    Buchholz has a lifetime ERA+ of 110: above average. Like most pitchers, he has had some good years and some bad ones. Meanwhile, we are paying him just $13M this year and assuming they pick up his option for next year, its $13.5M. In today's market, thats a bargain.
  16. FredLynn
    Approximately four years.
  17. FredLynn
    You're kidding. Another Farrell brain fart.
  18. FredLynn
    Why is Elias even with the club? Surely there has to be better options. When was the last time Koji pitched? This one is in the L column....but win tomorrow and we win the series. Take three from Atlanta and we are in decent shape
  19. FredLynn
    Likewise with JBJ. He has a floor that he needs to meet or one or the other, Vasquez or JBJ, needs to get out of the lineup. None of it will matter if the pitching doesn't improve.
  20. FredLynn
    As I wrote, I am not replacing him right now. I would look at it again in June. If he BA is still below .200 and his OPS is south of .680 I am considering my options. Let me ask you this: what if, hypothetically, Vasquez by June is hitting at .150/.450. Do you keep him in there? What about .120/.400? My point is that there is a number that he has to be able to achieve with the bat or other alternative need to be considered if we want to play October baseball.
  21. FredLynn
    I am not saying that something has to be done about our production from our catcher and starting CF right now; I would give them until June. But if we want to compete for October baseball we cannot have BOTH of those guys stinking it up at the plate. And of course the pitchers have to be much better. Thats a separate issue entirely. One black hole only.
  22. FredLynn
    So you are saying that because our pitching sucks that means that Vasquez and Bradley have acceptable numbers? Perhaps we can score more runs with Swihart or Castillo.
  23. FredLynn
    I don't mind one guy in the lineup not hitting the ball. But when Vasquez is at .146/.498 he IS a problem. He is even a problem if your CF is hitting only .240/.631. You cannot have both of those guys in your lineup hitting like that all year. Right now guys like Shaw and Holt etc are picking up the slack; that can't last at that pace.
  24. FredLynn
    He isn't even consistently good at that. He was good at it last year, but his OPS vs LHP in 2014 was .561 and in 2013 it was .712. Sometimes he is good vs LHP. Its a mysterious move to get him when we already seemed to have that position covered.
  25. FredLynn
    You don't cut him, of course. If he cannot start hitting the ball I would give Swihart a chance as the #1 catcher and make Vasquez a backup. You HAVE TO hit the baseball. Because he is so good defensively I would give him more time and allow less production offensively to keep his job. But at some point he cannot be an automatic out.
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