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rjortiz

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Everything posted by rjortiz

  1. The Royals stupidity won't have any impact on the Red Sox. The Marlins can hold out if they want, but Stanton keeps losing value the longer he is in Miami. They should have traded him last March.
  2. They waited too long to land someone like Bogaerts.
  3. Nava and Roberts should be seatmates on the Pawtucket Shuttle.
  4. They are on pace to score 571 runs, which is slightly better than the 2013 Marlins. I don't think the offense is that bad. They won't hit .192 with RISP the entire season.
  5. If he manages to pitch in another 77 innings in October, I would bet against him matching a 2.11 ERA.
  6. The Marlins investing $20-$25 million AAV in a single player would be unprecedented. He would start making that in 2016, which is around the time Jose Fernandez hits arbitration. The Marlins would have almost 1/2 their payroll invested in two players. He is not staying with the Marlins. Six years from now, Stanton will be 30. Lester will be 36. There will be a huge difference in value between the two players. I'm not worried about losing Lester for Stanton. Actually, considering Stanton is still under team control for two years, they could probably keep both if they wanted. As for the prospects you mentioned, Owens is probably in the deal for Stanton. Maybe De La Rosa, Webster, Barnes, or Ranaudo get one of the spots depending on their progression. They will have enough money to get a free agent starter should they all flop. Noe Ramirez is 24, in AA ball, and is a reliever. I doubt he has much of a chance.
  7. Yankees will be around $185 million after arbitration and their $12 million contribution to player benefits. They will have holes at 2B, SS, DH, SP (1), CL, and most likely 3B. How much they will be able to spend this offseason depends on how they perform this year. If they are out of the race in September, they could be in trouble for 2015. Even if they make the playoffs, pushing the payroll over $210 million before addressing the offense is pretty unlikely.
  8. 4/80 isn't that terrible an initial offer. The AAV is fine, but they couldn't have possibly expected him to agree to four years. It's only the initial offer, and they were probably probing how significant a discount Lester is willing to give. That being said, I don't see the Red Sox going past five years. 5/100 could be the best offer they make. I don't think that will get it done. If they don't want to pay for the decline years of Lester, I would like to see them kick the tires on Stanton. I like the idea of extending a young star in his peak years. The question is whether the Red Sox have the stomach to part with the quantity of prospects for Stanton.
  9. Minor league batters took 35% Red Sox AB's, and minor league pitchers accounted for over 50% of innings in March. Spring training is still meaningless.
  10. I think people are forgetting that Bogaerts is still only 20. Most 20 years olds are in A ball, or playing in the SEC. If he has a .750 OPS at the end of the year, I'll be thrilled with that.
  11. I didn't see it, but I read that Carp couldn't dig out the low throw from Bogaerts. Would Napoli make that play? Depends what scout you talk to, and what minus means.
  12. TV is a good-sized portion, and the main reason why MLB revenues are exploding, but they are not the sole component of MLB team valuation. Regional network values are highly speculative, and the average annual rights fee paid to the teams are backloaded. Look at the Astros fiasco. They have an annual rights fee of $80 million, as well as an equity stake in the network. CSN still can't work a deal out with the cable companies to broadcast the Astros. CSN only paid out $29 million to the Astros before it went bankrupt. The Astros valuation fell 15% in one-year. Jim Crane claims that he's lost hundreds of millions from the TV deal. TV contracts are driving the values of MLB team up, but any prospective buyer would have to agree with the continued viability of a regional network. The Dodgers have to be worried about Direct TV, Cox, Verizon, Dish, AT&T, and Charter refusing to carry the Dodgers TV network. That's 70% of the Los Angeles TV market. The TV deal has to be on taking water. The $8.35 billion TV contract was a huge reason the Dodgers went for $2 billion. They are struggling to get the Dodgers on TV right off the bat. What does that say about that validity of that $2 billion valuation? Focusing on TV value ignores the rest of the components that goes into valuation (ticket sales, concessions, sponsorships, etc.). It also ignores the amount of debt each team holds. The Yankees have a $2.5 billion value, but how much of that is debt that will have to be assumed by the buyer? Forbes has the Astros debt/value ratio is 49%. A $550 million value includes all that debt. We don't even know if that is an accurate number. The Yankees are only at 1% according to Forbes. Yankee Stadium LLC is the obligor of $1.34 billion in bonds that financed the stadium. Before the sale of the YES Network to Newscorp, the network was $1.4 billion in debt. The parent company of the Yankees are diverting expenses to other companies, and the profits to the team. They won't be so generous to the potential buyer.
  13. I think the pessimism is completely warranted. The offense was facing a regression from 2013, but I'm downgrading projections even further with Pedroia's continued power outage, and Nava turning back into a pumpkin. I'm not saying that the Red Sox are doomed, but they look closer in talent to the rest of the AL East. I would start making calls for a power hitting OF. We have the chips in the farm system, and the cap space available to make a big splash.
  14. Freedom of speech definitely doesn't apply to MLB. Rule of thumb is to shut up and don't make the league look bad.
  15. After the draft. June 7th.
  16. 4/9 starters out this early is pretty annoying.
  17. I don't want to find out.
  18. Yeah, but pay him $10 million + the first round pick for six weeks anyway.
  19. They are under the umbrella of Fenway Sports Group. John Henry could easily divert money to Liverpool instead of the Red Sox.
  20. John Henry owns Liverpool.
  21. Dispute this. You can't.
  22. Huge holes on the roster, but MLB and Yankees are part of the Illuminati. They have a Rothschild on the team. There is no spoon!
  23. in 1908.
  24. There's a lot of doctors on this website.
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