rjortiz

Conspiracy... conspiracy...

The foundation of your understanding about franchise value is crippled. Judging by your conclusions, I don't think you account for anything other than TV contract total before deciding which team has more value.

Completely unsubstantiated post. Why do people make things up? Did you even bother to verify if what you were thinking was true?

They wanted to give Lester $140 million, but they accidentally gave the other half to Luis Suarez.

Starting your 6th starter over your 2nd and 3rd starters will lose you more games in the long run. Even if he throws with his left hand, and they are in Yankee Stadium.

Haha, wow. I was just about to ask if he was going to get an XBH or a walk first.

Has our lineup always been this weak?

Hyperbolic on my part, but the Red Sox RD record was 100-62 last year. They have not replaced the production lost to free agency, and most of the returning veterans should not be expected to match their 2013 numbers. Faster development of the rookies can close the gap, but it would be too optimistic to say they will be able to match it. Short of making a trade, it is extremely unlikely the Red Sox win 97 games outright, let alone have a RD record of 100-62, or a total WAR of 58.3.

Everyone agrees that the offense has started slow. I just want to gather more information before I drew a conclusion. I wouldn't have known how fluky the double plays, and how the Red Sox would have a lower slugging percentage than Jose Iglesias. I've only watched three games. The post you are responding to was a response to mine. Didn't you call me a Yankee fan, because I suggested that we lower expectations for Xander Bogaerts, and not expect the same fortunes as 2013?

I used that as my source. Not a big deal. Just an opinion. The Red Sox won't send him down this early. He'll pass through waivers in July anyway.

Yeah, his last one.

Uehera had to be unavailable, and Tazawa already pitched the 8th. Mujica seems like the only other choice. The only way this can be true is that you throw out hindsight. The Red Sox might have not been projected to win as many games in April 2013, but only because they couldn't possibly project the Red Sox exceeding expectations at every position. In that case, I agree, but I don't think that really proves anything positive. It only convinces me that we are going to regress from last year. I would have paid out bets on the over season win total (83) in May last year. This is the main reason why I still have the Red Sox winning the AL East, despite some legitimate concerns. The Red Sox are definitely worse than last year, but the rest of the division didn't get much better. The 2013 Red Sox would have won this division by 20 games.

Don't let that fool you. The Red Sox were up five in Game 6, and tried to put out fires with Tazawa in the 7th the other two games.

Haha, that joke really shows how ridiculously good the bullpen is. Andrew Miller, Craig Breslow, and Chris Capuano are afterthoughts to the Red Sox. Maybe five bullpens could do better than Miller in the 8th. Capuano should have landed a fifth starter job.

Carp apparently has more trade value. I don't know why. Another huge fluke year. He hit 29 HR's four years ago in AAA. Maybe a GM will think he is a late bloomer and give up a legitimate prospect. Nava would fetch a D+ prospect at best. However, trading Carp means Daniel Nava is the insurance on Napoli's hip. Nava would be even more useless at 1B. At least, Carp has the chance to be above average if pressed into lineup at 1B. There is another option. Send Nava to AAA. Rotate AB's between Sizemore, Gomes, and Bradley. Bradley can also spell Victorino and come in as a defensive replacement. Don't forget to call the Marlins and Rockies everyday until the deadline.

There has to be some bet between Pedoria and Pierzynski on not drawing the first walk.

Sorry, read this as why is no one warming up.

Finally. We stop hitting into double plays, and start hitting them out.

The lack of power is more of a concern. Zero walks this season is starting to become a minor one.

This team really could use some power. I hope Gomes is back to his high .800 OPS against lefties.

I never thought I would hear Trout and Nava mentioned in the same sentence. Trout could be the worst defender in MLB history, and still would be an elite player. There's also a huge difference between poor (2011 Carl Crawford), and historically bad defense (2013 Daniel Nava). We should be fortunate that Nava isn't a terrible baserunner. I'm not worried about the ten game sample size. He'll definitely improve on his start. The question is how much he will improve? I am not optimistic about a repeat of his LD% and BABIP this year. How many players have similar skills to Nava, and consistently have huge years? Nava does not have elite patience at the plate. A BB% of 9.5% is above-average. He isn't going to leg out a lot of infield hits, and he has limited power. The only way he sustains his BABIP is continued luck. Look at the players with high LD% and high BABIP: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,4,6,-1,34,35,43,40,41,53&season=2013&month=0&season1=2004&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d Not many repeat visitors at Nava's level. Not many players that are similar to him either. There's also some bad performances despite the high LD%. The only hope is that he continues to get hit by a lot of pitches. He finished with 15 HBP, which was 4th in all of MLB. I don't have any faith in his defense improving. Nava has rated as having awful range every single year in the majors, and in two of those he's historically bad. Nava has one and a half above average skills. He can draw some walks, and can hit right handed pitching. He's a pinch hitter at best. Carp already does that, and Gomes is a legitimate masher against lefties. Bradley can play all three outfield positions. Nava is the one who should go, but he'll stay up because of last year. No, but he's better than Nava. I think Sizemore, Bradley, and Victorino is the eventual outfield. This team might be short of power come July, so I'd kick the tires on Carlos Gonzalez and Stanton. Maybe the Marlins don't want to pay Stanton the rest of his $6 million.

This is not a overreaction to a ten game sample. I have never been a fan of Nava. He was only a passable regular last year, despite being having a huge year offensively. fWAR has him a grand total of 1.8 WAR. It's easy to see why. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d He ranked third in wOBA among 16 qualified left-fielders. However, when you sort the table by WAR, he falls to 12th. Nava had a Def value of -18.4, which places him 15th out of 16th. The only guy below him is a 1B. Nava is also saved by his low innings in the outfield. I was interested to see how historically bad this was. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=950&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=25%2ca Out of all outfielders, not just LF/RF, since UZR became a stat in 2002, Nava has the 48th worst defensive season if his 2013 UZR is adjusted to 150 games. This is before adjusting for position. He would have had at least -25 Def value had he played the outfield more often. Take this with a grain of salt, but here is he stacks up in Def value all time. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21%2ca 100th worst defensive season in all MLB history, and managed that despite playing in only 971 innings. He can thank the .352 BABIP for the .385 OBP last year. If he's near the league average in BABIP he's worthless. Even if he improves from historically bad defender to awful, he's still not very useful. I think they'll put him out to pasture at some point in the season.

oWAR rewards double play avoidance, and adjusts for positions. The worst two hitters being corner outfielders is definitely weighing that total down. The 17 GIDP is also killing that total.

That can't be right. Where did you get that statistic?

I also think you are getting carried away with this number. The Yankees will receive $90 million in 2014 from the YES Network in broadcasting rights. They are not the owners of the YES Network. They only have a 20% stake. 21st Century Fox owns the other 80%. You are actually low on the valuation of the YES Network. $3 billion was based on the sale in 2012, when Newscorp had a 49% stake. They recently upped the stake to 80% based on a valuation of $3.8 billion. The Yankees probably receive around 20% of the profits. YES reported earnings (before taxes, interest, depreciation, and amortization) at $200 million in 2012. I don't know the accounting practices of the YES Network, but an additional $30-$40 million to the Yankees is probably pretty close. The equity stake is not subjected to revenue sharing, but I would guess they bring will around $100 million from their TV network in 2014. The Red Sox are probably not very far behind. I can't find the exact terms of the contract, but they have an annual rights fee of $60 million. They also have an 80% stake in NESN. I couldn't find the information on NESN's earnings, but I did see a mention of $60 million in cash flow in 2013. I would estimate they are in the $90-$100 million range. It could be higher depending what was really paid out to the Red Sox. The gap could get wider as the Yankees get a 5% increase in annual rights fees until 2042, but I don't expect the way people watch TV will be remotely similar 28 years from now. The YES Network is overvalued, as are all regional sports networks.