Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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Now you've got me.
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As I said, the harder the ball is thrown and the more spin is generated.
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Pedro might have been the best ever during that stretch from 1997 to 2003.
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I think it's pretty simple, personally. The harder the ball is thrown and the more spin is generated, the more stress it puts on the arm. And there's no way to protect the arm against that kind of stress. It's joints and ligaments and tendons. Nate Eovaldi is a good example. The guy is obviously in great physical shape, but he's also an injury waiting to happen every time he takes the mound.
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I think the deal-making in this case is going to be pretty simple. It'll be like E-Bay - do you want to increase your bid or do you want to drop out. It's probably a given that there will be an opt-out or two included.
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And outbidding some other teams that also have a lot of money to invest.
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1966 3.99 1967 3.77 1968 3.42 1969 4.07 1970 4.34 1971 3.89 1972 3.69 1973 4.21 1974 4.12 1975 4.21 1976 3.99 1977 4.47 1978 4.10 1979 4.46 1980 4.29 1981 4.00 1982 4.30 1983 4.31 1984 4.26 1985 4.33 1986 4.41 1987 4.72 1988 4.14 1989 4.13 1990 4.26 1991 4.31 1992 4.12 1993 4.60 1994 4.92 1995 4.85 1996 5.04 1997 4.77 1998 4.79 1999 5.08 2000 5.14 2001 4.78 2002 4.62 2003 4.73 2004 4.81 2005 4.59 2006 4.86 2007 4.80 2008 4.65 2009 4.61 2010 4.38 2011 4.28 2012 4.32 2013 4.17 2014 4.07 2015 4.25 2016 4.48 2017 4.65 2018 4.45 2019 4.85 2020 4.65 2021 4.53 2022 4.28 2023 4.62
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Don't kid yourself, pitchers today are better than they were 20 years ago or however far back you want to go. They throw harder and put more spin on the ball. But the extra stress on their arms also makes them less durable.
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Yamamoto is a move that's more up to the owners than it is to Breslow, IMHO.
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I'm not sure why the fact it's Breslow's first year should have any impact on the decision to gamble on Yamamoto.
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You might say those were the two most gifted CBO's the Red Sox have had on a transactional basis. Some stellar free agent signings and trades. Dombrowski did his usual overpay for the elite talent thing, and did it well. The pickups he made at the 2018 deadline were probably his finest moment.
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Gray's problems in NY appear to have been caused by them messing with his pitch mix.
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You could do a smaller study by looking at something like active career fWAR leaders, pitching and position players, and where they were drafted.
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Good Caddyshack reference.
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It's just something to jabber about.
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I think it all comes down to this: Baseball is Hard.
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His career bWAR is 1.7 in 302 games, 880 PA's. As I said, his FWAR is better at 4.2. As for less than 50%, we're talking about a BUC.
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McGuire 2023: 0.3 fWAR, -0.3 bWAR FUBAR 0.0 He's Freddy Fungible incarnate.
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FanGraphs is kind to McGuire, B-R not so much. Metrics for catchers are much like metrics for pitchers - inconsistent. I still shudder when I see that McGuire is starting because I can't get those fat CERA numbers out of head, as skewed as I know they are.
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All these big deals are overpays, Jax. It's a feature, not a bug. To win an auction with the amount of money these teams have, you have to get a little silly. Especially when we're talking about a free agent pool that features 5 or 6 top pitchers and 1 or 2 top position players.
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The Red Sox have certainly been following that philosophy for years. Has it paid off?
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But for some reason, a lot of fans like to yak about who's an ace, a TOTR starter, a frontline starter, a #2, a #3 etc. There's no stopping it.
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Yes, in the playoffs order matters a lot.
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Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
Bellhorn04 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
So you're officially a bWAR for pitchers guy. -
Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
Bellhorn04 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
If we get Yamamoto that would be awesome. After that, you could make a good argument that Gray and Montgomery are the two best options. Snell might have more talent, but he's got the injury risk. Gray and Monty have been reasonably durable. I have a sense of desperation about this. We have to land 1 or 2 of these guys.
