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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    In 2016 the Red Sox team batting average was .282. Oakland's team batting average was .246. Small difference? Well, the Red Sox scored 225 more runs, or 1.39 runs more per game, so I'm going to say no.
  2. Bellhorn04
    Faulty math in my opinion. The difference between 5% and 1% is also 4% - out of 100%. But 5% is 5 times as much as 1%.
  3. Bellhorn04
    And don't the ranges get bigger with pitchers? If we say a good pitcher has a 3.2 ERA and a bad pitcher has a 4.8 ERA, that's a 50% difference. Not small at all.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Also the difference between .280 and .240 is 16.67%.
  5. Bellhorn04
    So does that mean the difference between a good hitter and a bad hitter is an illusion, because the range is so small?
  6. Bellhorn04
    I do agree with that. But the real stat gurus seem to be saying that the skills are all scientifically measurable by statistical profiles, and the clutch/non-clutch doesn't exist, so when you get down to it randomness is the only thing that's left to decide the outcome.
  7. Bellhorn04
    The theory that clutch/non-clutch is strictly attributable to randomness is just that, it's a theory. It may be the correct theory. But it's not conclusive proof, because conclusive proof is simply impossible.
  8. Bellhorn04
    Yeah, but the 'performances' are all just randomness in action. The players show up and play and whatever happens happens.
  9. Bellhorn04
    The problem is that with baseball you can bury so much in randomness. Look at Schilling. Regular season ERA 3.46 WHIP 1.14 K/BB 4.38 Postseason 19 starts ERA 2.23 WHIP .97 K/BB 4.80 He was an excellent pitcher in the regular season but in the postseason he took it to a higher level. Look at those numbers, all against playoff caliber teams, obviously. But what I gather is that the argument is that the excellence of those numbers may be mere randomness - that he could have had a stretch like that in the regular season as well. Well, maybe he could have. But is there really proof that it was all randomness? I don't see how.
  10. Bellhorn04
    Great player, but he wasn't Hendu.
  11. Bellhorn04
    Sigh...
  12. Bellhorn04
    Pretty hard to answer that one.
  13. Bellhorn04
    More jobs: Brett Butler Joe Tinker
  14. Bellhorn04
    Ain't it the truth.
  15. Bellhorn04
    And I don't disagree with any of that.
  16. Bellhorn04
    Terry Francona provides a pretty good example of why Boston can be a hard place to play (or manage). The guy wins 2 titles in 8 years after the 0 for 85 stretch, and yet for many Sox fans he was Francoma or Sit and Spit or a guy who was just lucky to have such good teams. The biggest shock for me when I first joined a Red Sox forum in 2007 was how much grief Francona was taking there.
  17. Bellhorn04
    Nice post!
  18. Bellhorn04
    Occupations (including old-time ones) Catfish Hunter Mike Butcher Brett Gardner Chris Carpenter Wally Joyner Cecil Cooper Ron Taylor
  19. Bellhorn04
    Building Supplies/Furniture Phil Roof Matt Stairs Johnny Bench John Rocker
  20. Bellhorn04
    Over Megan Fox?
  21. Bellhorn04
    Kimmi is saying they don't look at individual player samples but the total sample for all players. I'm sure she'll tell us more when she gets home from school.
  22. Bellhorn04
    But to me the whole idea is trying to evaluate individual players...I don't really understand.
  23. Bellhorn04
    But postseason games aren't considered because the samples are too small, right?
  24. Bellhorn04
    Another purely personal belief of mine is that the leverage OF the game matters more than the leverage WITHIN the game. To put that in simple terms, I think the first at-bat in an elimination postseason game carries more pressure than a late & close at-bat in the first game of the season.
  25. Bellhorn04
    I'm willing to bet the reason for that is that in a lot of those late & close situations he was facing a tough lefty reliever.
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