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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    And if you really want to get into the psychology of it, it has a lot to do with the effect of negative thoughts on performance. I think when David Price takes the mound in a playoff game he's got mental baggage. It's hard for him not to think about past playoff games and his poor record and the media attention to it and all that crap. 'Sports psychologist' has been a profession for a while now, after all.
  2. Bellhorn04
    To me a clutch hitter is one who does as well or better in high leverage situations as they do in normal situations. A really refined measurement of this would have to take into account strength of opposition, in my opinion.
  3. Bellhorn04
    And then there's the question of whether a 'late and close' situation in a game in mid-April actually carries any significant additional pressure. I don't think it does.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Seriously? If you ask someone how the food at a restaurant is and they say 'not very good' you interpret that the food is good?
  5. Bellhorn04
    "Not all that great" generally means the same as "Not very good".
  6. Bellhorn04
    You don't have to produce that again. I know that on a deal by deal basis he didn't do as well. But I believe all that is secondary to the fact that the team kept winning 90-95 games almost every year.
  7. Bellhorn04
    My point was that Theo's deal after the Nomar trade we significantly worse than prior. He had a few good ones, but not like prior to Nomar, where just about every deal, even the small ones worked out well. So he couldn't be expected to keep up that rate of success. Probably no one could.
  8. Bellhorn04
    You're talking about a 7 year time span. And the team Theo left Ben looks pretty good in retrospect if you're including the prospects. Aside from Crawford and 'clubhouse issues'.
  9. Bellhorn04
    A 92.2 average is still pretty good.
  10. Bellhorn04
    Starting rotation analysis please.
  11. Bellhorn04
    The team's record suggests otherwise. I believe the team's record is the ultimate measure of a GM's performance.
  12. Bellhorn04
    What I mean is, if a guy like Ortiz has good numbers in big moments, you say 'well that's because he's simply a good player.' If a guy like David Price has bad numbers in big moments, you say 'well that's randomness and small sample size.'
  13. Bellhorn04
    The most pressure I've ever experienced has been playing in a club championship where my goal was not to embarrass myself, or playing in a tournament with my buddies where there was a hundred bucks or so on the line for me. In other words, no real experience.
  14. Bellhorn04
    I have no idea why we're talking about batting averages here anyway. With on-base pct. and SLG you get much wider and more meaningful ranges. Then when you look at the pitching end you have large ranges in ERA. The differences between elite players and barely adequate major leaguers are not small at all, it's just a matter of what numbers you're using, right?
  15. Bellhorn04
    Player A was definitely 40 points better. I'm just saying he was also 16.7% better. The real point is that there's a big difference between a career .280 hitter and a career .240 hitter, in terms of their skill levels (forgetting about OBP and SLG). To expand the point, compare a .300 hitter to a .220 hitter. The difference in skill level is so large that Player A can be a perennial all-star making huge money and Player B might be a backup catcher for a few years or some other form of obscurity.
  16. Bellhorn04
    I fully get that. I still say the guy with 28 hits is 16.7% more productive than the guy with 24 hits, not 4%.
  17. Bellhorn04
    You're the one who based your argument about small differences on batting averages.
  18. Bellhorn04
    But that doesn't explain why Schilling's postseason numbers are so much better than David Price's. They're both very good pitchers. So why the big difference? Now you have to drop the 'good players' argument and pull out the 'randomness' and 'small sample sizes'.
  19. Bellhorn04
    Exactly, I'm glad someone other than me brought golf into it. Johnny Miller, NBC's golf commentator, talks about choking all the time. And he's pretty qualified to talk about it, considering that he won 25 PGA tournaments, including the US Open and British Open, and is in his sport's Hall of Fame.
  20. Bellhorn04
    That's one thing. The other is that postseason sample sizes are too small. The combination of the two means that trying to prove or disprove clutch is an exercise in futility. We do have wide variances in postseason numbers. You say randomness is the only explanation. I think there may be others.
  21. Bellhorn04
    I'm not even sure we should be favored over Cleveland.
  22. Bellhorn04
    Yeah, I have to agree. We have 3 more years of Bogey left, if we don't trade him.
  23. Bellhorn04
    Sure, why wouldn't you? Your chances are 5 times as good. It's a wash.
  24. Bellhorn04
    Except that's exactly what we're doing, comparing the two players.
  25. Bellhorn04
    Are you saying that 1.4 runs a game isn't a lot, when the league average is 4.5 runs?
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