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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    This get a little confusing. Is he horrible or slightly below average? UZR/150 is the only defensive metric I look at.
  2. Bellhorn04
    Plus a vesting option that could make it 4 yrs / 66 million. The guaranteed AAV of 17.33 is a record for relievers, higher than Chapman's 17.2.
  3. Bellhorn04
    Good offenses, yes, but that doesn't really explain an .842 OPS against an 'ace'. Some pitchers have trouble in some parks.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Not true. All the metrics have him just around average or a hair below. So-so is a fair description.
  5. Bellhorn04
    If you use bWAR, on the other hand, Archer's WAR numbers are not nearly as impressive. And then the metrics themselves come into question.
  6. Bellhorn04
    After giving it some consideration I don't think I would trade Benintendi for Archer. Archer's numbers at Fenway are really bad. 7 starts, 33.1 IP, 27 ER, 41 H, 23 BB, 1.92 WHIP, .842 OPS. Small sample but a frightening one.
  7. Bellhorn04
    No doubt, but for these very reasons the Rays would be asking for a huge return for Archer...they also have a history of not trading with other AL East teams I think...
  8. Bellhorn04
    None of the top free agents outside of Santana have signed yet, however. This offseason is a different one.
  9. Bellhorn04
    They unloaded assets but they also unloaded a lot of debt. Who knows where they're headed from here. Do they even want to stay in Miami or are they dreaming of Vegas or some other new locale.
  10. Bellhorn04
    In the regular season, getting the opposing team's starting pitcher out of the game after 5 innings or so should still give you a good advantage. Not many teams can cover 4 innings with all good relievers, certainly not on a consistent basis. I really think a more balanced approach is the best - patient, but not too predictable.
  11. Bellhorn04
    Vladimir Guerrero would swing at anything.
  12. Bellhorn04
    It's a lot like rock-paper-scissors when you get down to it.
  13. Bellhorn04
    Another thing that amuses me about complaints about taking the first pitch is that nobody particularly likes it when the team goes down 1-2-3 on a small number of pitches. Someone will always make a comment like 'Wow, that was fast!' We only really like it when the guy swings and gets a hit. All that said, I don't disagree that being predictable can be a problem and that swinging on the first pitch sometimes is a good idea. I'm pretty sure we'll see a lot more of it next year.
  14. Bellhorn04
    Of course those 0-1 counts include PA's where he swung at the first pitch too. Also, Pedey may have been the 'worst' at taking the first pitch but he also had the highest OBP on the team.
  15. Bellhorn04
    Dave is back in action!
  16. Bellhorn04
    No issue with FanGraphs, as an accountant I get the rounding thing.
  17. Bellhorn04
    They had the best offense in the majors in 2016, so it didn't seem to be much of a problem. Last year was a whole different story.
  18. Bellhorn04
    2015 1.6 2016 5.1 2017 2.0 +0.1 for rounding LOL
  19. Bellhorn04
    If he has a 5 WAR season that's pretty freakin' good regardless.
  20. Bellhorn04
    Agreed, OTOH Porcello's durability isn't enough to make him a #2 starter.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Overall Porcello is a #3 starter. But his durability bumps up his WAR of course.
  22. Bellhorn04
    What was his final ranking among CF'ers for 2016?
  23. Bellhorn04
    I certainly agree. Standing there watching a straight fastball down the middle is not good. On the other hand, swinging at every first pitch that looks like it might be a strike coming out of the pitcher's hand is not either. My feeling is that these guys are didn't get to the big leagues by not understanding all this stuff at least as well as the viewers at home. Anyway, we can all hope Alex Cora and his staff instill a good approach this year.
  24. Bellhorn04
    I would agree with the idea of game planning. The only thing I would add is that the planning would also take into account the first-pitch tendencies of the opposing starter. But to me all the armchair managing we like to do can be comical. I remember when I was a kid watching baseball games how often I would be thinking 'Why did he swing at that?' when the pitch was six inches out of the strike zone or something. It didn't really dawn on me how difficult it is to size up a baseball being thrown at up to 100 miles an hour, or with all different sorts of spin and movement, from 60 feet 6 inches away. Ted Williams said it, hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in sports, and he was a pretty good authority on the subject.
  25. Bellhorn04
    Yeah, I know. There's just so little actual news to talk about.
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