Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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But what can you say about what kind of season a player is having by watching them a game here and a game there? Performance varies from game to game, even with fielding.
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And Carl Crawford. For starters.
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Unsigned Boras clients on Jan 1/18: J D Martinez Eric Hosmer Jake Arrieta Mike Moustakas Should be quite a month for Scotty boy...
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I certainly get that it can be part of a successful negotiation to start with a high asking price. But I still maintain that the 210 million ask by Boras for JD was just silly talk. No one is going anywhere near that. JD is a big bat but that's all he is. Last year Encarnacion had to settle for 60 million guaranteed. He was about 3 years older than JD is now, but that's about the only significant difference. Boras is lucky that the Red Sox are one of the teams that need a big bat.
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The reported offer to Jon Lester was an absolute joke. But whether it's a house for sale or a ballplayer, not all negotiations involve ridiculous asking prices or lowball offers. There are a wide range of scenarios. Sometimes the prospective buyer puts a big offer on the table because they really want that property and they want it now. Sometimes they 'overpay'.
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Boras's stated asking price of 7/210 was an absolute joke. The MLBTR prediction of 6/150 was reasonable.
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You two made cliff a part of the lexicon here. I hope you're happy.
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It was 2 errors, actually.
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In 2014 and 2015 he was being paid about $500 K for 2 WAR. That's what harmony calls 'surplus value'. Could we have traded him for that kind of surplus value in return? I don't know. The other thing, of course, is that we don't know if they did put his name out there and didn't care for what was being offered.
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Yeah, there's not much money to work with, you're right about that.
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Personally, I liked him most when he was being paid minimum wage. I thought that was a big part of his value.
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Isn't it also a possibility that Holt's value to Boston was approximately equal to his value in trade?
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Yes, countdown time is upon us.
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I would agree that the lack of moves at the lower level is worrisome.
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Speaking of Bogey, there's an article on him in the Globe in which he confirms that he was playing hurt for a big chunk of last year, 'swinging with one hand' as he puts it, and he feels it was probably a bad idea to do it - oh well, right? But it also talks about his offseason training program. He is muscling up. There's a picture of him working out - his arm muscularity looks a little scary.
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Close call, but I don't think I'd trade 2 years of Bogey for 1 of Machado. To me such a trade feels like bringing the cliff even closer than it already is.
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I'm still thinking we may get a big impassioned speech from Boras complaining about what's going on this offseason.
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I hear you, but there are still a pile of other unsigned players out there. I assume DD is hoping for some price reductions on others besides JD.
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Giving up a lot for one year of Machado just doesn't make sense. I'm sure they'll have suitors for him at the deadline though.
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Interesting theory. If you could back that up with a research study they might have to hire you at FanGraphs!
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That may be so. But the WAR differences for some pitchers, like Archer, are so large that it's almost a joke. If you use Archer's fWAR for the last 2 seasons he looks like an ace. If you use bWAR he looks like a #4 pitcher. This can create a lot of confusion for a fan who has enough interest in WAR to look at it, but not enough interest to study it.
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Right, we 'only lose one season' of Bogey. But we also 'only get one season' of Machado. Plus we give up more. Yuck that.
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It makes no sense at all. We could sign Martinez for half as much money and not give up any talent whatsoever.
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You're right, it was a loose statement by me to say 'all the metrics'. I was only looking at his bWAR and fWAR numbers. If anything this seems like a good reason to just look at total WAR. If you use that he's clearly been a plus player.
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I can't see any way Machado would agree to an extension unless it was the $350 million or so that some have speculated he could get next year. So we would be trading a lot of talent for 1 year of his services, plus signing him to the biggest free agent contract in history. Yuck.
