I told Bellhorn i was going to bite on predictions for the current Red Sox rotation, and i here i am. But instead of focusing solely on the starting rotation, i will have a crack at projecting the entire team as currently constructed. The methodology i used consisted of looking at career statistics and and currently available projection systems. To make it a bit more interesting, i decided to embrace my "positive" persona and project using mostly best-case scenarios (return from injury, previous FIP marks, etc) while attempting to remain as objective as possible.
Side-note: None of these numbers were pulled out of thin air, i simply put a bit more weight into career numbers and advanced (read, park-neutral) effects in order to predict the best possible, yet still likely outcome for the 2015 Boston Red Sox, in both the offensive and pitching aspects of the game.
I am also willing to make a sig bet that the cumulative rotation ERA is, at the very least, league average if not slightly better for 2015. Just to show that i somewhat trust (you can never truly trust projection, or anything for that matter in baseball) the system i used to arrive at my conclusions:
Rick Porcello: 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 150+ K, 202 IP.
Wade Miley: 3.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 175+ K, 201 IP.
Justin Masterson: 3.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 185+ K, 190 IP
Clay Buchholz: 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 120 K, 150 IP.
Joe Kelly: 4.10 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 100 K, 130 IP.
Henry Owens: 3.54 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 80 K, 90 IP
Mid-season acquisition: 3.20 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 80 IP, 82 K
Offense:
CF Mookie Betts: 287/360/430, 13 HR, 32 2B, 30 steals, 90 R, 62 RBI.
2B Dustin Pedroia: .290/360/430,12 HR, 35 2B, 20 steals, 80 R,70 RBI
DH David Ortiz: 280/370/500, 33 HR, 40 2B, 1 steal (lol), 80 R, 110 RBI
LF Hanley Ramirez: 300/380/470, 25 HR, 35 2B, 15 steals, 80 R, 105 RBI
3B Pablo Sandoval: .290/340/430, 15 HR, 30 2B, 0 steals, 65 R, 80 RBI
1B- Mike Napoli: .255/355/440, 23 HR, 35 2B, 0 steals, 70 R, 82 RBI
RF- Shane Victorino: 270/330/405, 7 HR, 20 2B, 10 steals, 40 R, 44 RBI
SS- Xander Bogaerts: 275/340/430 15 HR, 30 2B, 5 steals, 50 R, 60 RBI
C- Christian Vasquez: 245/310/380, 5 HR, 15 2B, 0 steals, 35 R, 30 RBI
Bench:
Ryan Hanigan: 240/330/360, 2 HR, 10 2B, 0 steals, 18 R, 25 RBI
Brock Holt: .270/320/370, 4 HR, 13 2B, 8 SB. 25 R, 20 RBI
Daniel Nava: .270/350/400, 5 HR, 25 2B, 0 SB,
Allen Craig:.270/330/410, 12 HR, 25 2B, 50 R, 65 RBI
Bullpen:
CL-Koji Uehara: 2.20 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 80K, 65 IP, 35 SV
SU1-Junichi Tazawa: 2.95 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 70 K, 72 IP, 25 Holds
SU2-Edward Mujica: 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 47 K, 62 IP, 18 Holds
MRP-Tommy Layne: 3.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 30 K, 42 IP
MRP-Robbie Ross Jr: 4.05 ERA, 1. 35 WHIP, 28 K, 38 IP
MRP-Alexi Ogando: 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 42 K, 45 IP
LRP- Brandon Workman: 4.12 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 38, 115 IP
Notes:
1) I believe Castillo will start the season in AAA and will be brought up later in the year when Victorino inevitably gets hurt, thus no projection (even though he's almost impossible to project right now either way due to SSS) for what i assume will be limited time.
2) Nava/Craig are a platoon at RF after Victorino inevitably gets hurt, with Craig also getting some time at 1B/DH to spell Napoli/Papi against lefties.
3) The BP assignments are for how i envision them coming out of SP, not necessarily how it will shake out in-season particularly given Mujica's notorious streakiness.
4) I don't buy that Miley's "just an innings eater" xFIP (which accounts for HR issues) very much likes his work, and Fenway's a lot less of a HR park than it used to be, especially with decreased offensive numbers.
5) Regarding SP, my only real leap-of-faith here in current talent is Masterson, but he has always underperformed his FIP and i expect that a better defensive unit (banking on an improvement from XB here) will help the entire squad play up to its FIP instead of down. I am also expecting Henry Owens to make his debut in mid-season and be a little better than league average. I am also expecting a significant in-season acquisition to put up pretty good numbers during the stretch run.