vjcsmoke

Dempster is a nice 5th starter. But he makes too much money for that role. I hope we can dump his contract on somebody soon!

Problem is that there's no way Japanese teams can match the money he would make in the Majors. Tanaka will probably get at LEAST an average of 15m/year in MLB. Probably the most his Japanese team could comfortably afford to offer would be 5m per year and only one year deal at that cos he ain't gonna stay past his window to become a free agent eligible for MLB. Would LOVE to see the Mariners with Cano and Tanaka! Ichiro was a huge star in Seattle, so it might not be beyond the realm of possibility that Tanaka ends up there.

I think Choo will be worth his 18.5m contract but likely only over the first 5 years. I expect drop-off in years 6/7. I agree with the Red Sox decision not to go 7/130 for Choo. So after all is said and done, I think we still need an RH platoon bat who can play CF and some RF in Fenway.

I don't see us even close to a matching a 300m dollar offer. LOL. So, no Kershaw to the Sox. But if the Yankees go crazy after missing out on Tanaka, maybe they say the hell with the luxury tax and offer Kershaw 350m. That would be the end of sanity. But it wouldn't surprise me if the Stankees were backed into a corner, this is just the type of move they could make to 'buy themselves' back into contention. PS I think anyone would be crazy to turn down 300m dollars unless they have an ironclad secret agreement with another team in hand for significantly more dollars.

His talent level doesn't have to be .880 again to be worthwhile. If his OPS dropped to .800 to .850 he'd still be a valuable bat off the bench. And Carp doesn't have to be the 'heir apparent' to be valuable. Ortiz and Napoli are older, they can't play every day, and it's good to be able to insert a young power bat into the mix to give those guys days of rest without suffering too much dropoff in offense. Where we differ is your valuation of Blanco is overrated imo. I wouldn't give up Carp straight up for Blanco. You'd want to throw in Carp plus prospects for Blanco. The Giants probably don't move Blanco just because their outfielders suck that bad. I don't want Blanco because I feel he sucks that bad compared to our other outfielders. What about Blanco's speed? 14 steals and 9 caught stealing last season? That's a terrible caught stealing rate of 36%. And Who does he replace? Not Victorino in rightfield with his 5+ WAR. What about Nava? Nava's .800 OPS crushes Blanco, and he also has a superior career .369 OPB vs Blancos career .347. What about Johnny Gomes, he owns a career .770 OPS and has what our manager refers to as the 'IT' factor. How about JBJ? I think it's safe to say if JBJ put out a sub 700 OPS people would be calling for his head. Since Blanco is not an Upgrade to Left or Right field, that only leaves him as a platoon with JBJ, but guess what, Blanco is ALSO a left handed bat. You just do not go with a lefty/lefty platoon. There is just NO FIT here with the Red Sox. I don't see the value for the Giants OR the Red Sox.

Seriously. I don't think the Yankees winning is 'good for baseball'. It's good for the Yankees. What makes playoff baseball compelling, is not that you see the same old teams, but rather the storylines that develop for the teams that make it. Would I like to see the Cubs in the World Series? That would get hyped like crazy. I don't think they will, but that's just an example. Using our team as an example - it was the Last to First story. And it was Boston Strong. I think the Boston Red Sox winning the World Series this past season was GREAT for baseball. A much stronger storyline than, oh btw Yankees make it to the Series for the Umpteenth time. But regardless of how good the 'story' is, bottom line we DID have the BEST TEAM in baseball. Our guys played their hearts out and earned that championship by winning against the best and most talented opponents surviving in the playoffs this year.

What about Carp's .880 OPS? That doesn't exactly grow on trees and the Sox can use all the power bats they can get. Ortiz and Napoli are long in the tooth. They're not going to play forever. I don't see Blanco as being good enough to give up a good power bat for. He is a career .683 OPS OF and his speed is nothing to write home about either. Versatility is a plus, but sub .700 OPS is subpar for ANY OF position.

Would love Kershaw but the Dodgers would be stupid to let him go. And the current Dodgers LOVE to spend. So I don't see us landing him. Masterson is a sinkerballer who I don't see playing that well in Fenway. He's a #2/3 type pitcher anyways. We traded him away for a reason. Shields... is an innings eater but his numbers have been getting worse each year. The thing about NPB pitchers is that although they throw a lot of innings per game, they play much fewer games total than the Majors. And Tanaka is 6 years younger than Shields. I think he's still young enough that his total IP is not a worry for me. I think it's good that: 1. The Yankees are denied a chance to get him for one year. 2. The Red Sox will have a shot at him with a LOT of money coming off their payroll. 3. We get to see more 'work product' to make up our minds, is this guy a #2 or could he potentially become a staff anchor. I think Tanaka is going to be the best free agent option in 2015, at age 26, assuming that Kershaw is extended longterm by the Dodgers before he gets there.

Pretty much. It sounds like the Sox are willing to see what JBJ can do for them in center. I'm worried he might not pan out and then they have to do an emergency trade where they pay out a lot more than they want to address the CF position. I still think the Sox situation with Crisp/Ellsbury was ideal. You had the veteran and you had the up and coming youngster. Both potentially capable of being starting players for you. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coco_Crisp And what did we give up andy marte, gullerma motta, and Kelly shoppach. did losing any of those guys haunt us?

Of course we don't want another Matsuzaka. But Tanaka is a different type of pitcher. Imagine if we could get Uehara at age 25, when he was still a frontline starting pitcher, for example? In any case, there's always some risk potential when signing a free agent. and not just a Japanese free agent, any of them. You could be getting the next Yu Darvish or you could be getting the next Kei Igawa. Who knows. However we do know that the risk is more affordable with the posting fee now being capped. In any case the Yankee will be all in once Tanaka is posted. I guess all we can do is drive up the price. But the Dodgers and Mariners will likely be driving up the market already. I think if Tanaka comes out this year, there is much less chance of us bidding him up. But if he gets posted the following season, after Dempster, Lackey, etc. go off the books, then he becomes a great fit for us.

Or maybe they just didn't want THAT outfielder.

The scouting report on JBJ is that he only has average to above average speed. He's not an elite speedster like Ellsbury. So we can expect about 20 SB from JBJ but I think he bats 9th until he proves he can hit major league pitching with decent OBP.

5 WAR for a rookie is extremely optimistic. Just for reference sake - only 33 Major Leaguer batters all last year made the 5.0 war mark and on the Red Sox only Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Shane Victorino topped or met 5 war. David Ortiz just missed the mark with a 4.4 WAR. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/sort/WARBR/order/true Do you really believe JBJ will be more valuable than David Ortiz? I don't. I think Ortiz' WAR suffers a little because he's a DH and doesn't field. But still. I don't see JBJ realistically making the 5 WAR mark unless he turns into a ROY candidate and even then it would be tough. In fact just check the top 40 in batter war last year and you'll see a list of a who's who of the best players in baseball. I would be thrilled but utterly surprised if JBJ turned out to be a top 40 player for us. XB maybe, but I don't expect that out of JBJ. I'd be happy with a solid rookie season and showing us the potential to grow into a starting player at the MLB level. I think that most people seem to agree that Choo is worth 18m per year. The question is how long of a contract commitment would he get and are those dollars the best way the Sox can spend their money.

The problem is that if he is posted this year, we have to compete with the Yankees. If he is posted in 2014, they may already have the salary slotted for pitchers that they signed in the free agent market. So the Red Sox would have a better shot with the salaries of Dempster and company coming off the books. As for the posting system its going to need some kind of tweaking in the future that may involve some kind of bonus or percentage based on the size of player contract. Because if you're the Fukuoka Eagles, do you take the 20 million, or do you pass and compete for another Championship next year? The Eagles may have been reluctant to post Tanaka before, but the promise of a 50m dollar cash injection surely would have given them an attractive incentive to let Tanaka pursue a career in America. Now, not so much! Think about it, right now, there's no top team in MLB that needs starting pitching who wouldn't pay 20m plus contract for Tanaka. Especially with the new TV deal going through. That mean's it's probably too good a deal on the American side of the ocean.

Tanaka is 6'2 200 lbs. Size is not an issue. The issue is whether or not his team will even post him now that the posting fee has been capped to only 20m dollars. There is a lot less financial incentive for Japanese teams to let their stars go early now. Tanaka is in his prime now at age 25. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1861216-how-masahiro-tanakas-stuff-will-play-against-mlb-hitters Yup, the Yankees will be in big trouble if they have to wait another year. They can't, they have holes right now and they will likely have to sign /overpay another free agent that might not be as skilled.

Well they don't necessarily need to make a big splash. But they could use a right handed bat to platoon with JBJ. I like his upside but I'm not ready to give him the keys to CF next season without a fallback plan of some sort. Remember when the Sox had Crisp and Ellsbury? That was the ideal situation. Once Ellsbury proved himself, they moved Crisp. Is Stanton on the tradeblock or what? http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2013/11/marlins_president_opens_door_for_a_stanton_trade_j.html

They aren't even close offensively. Nava has a career .782 OPS. Choo has a career .854 OPS. Nava's average WAR is .8. Choo's average WAR over the past 5 seasons is 4.14. There's a lot more to the story than some stolen bases. Choo would be an elite leadoff hitter and Nava is... well Nava. A good 4th or utility OF, but if he's a starting OF for you, then your team is in trouble. Of course how the Red Sox should allocate their money is entirely up for discussion. Consider the fact that Napoli makes 16m per year. If Choo only costs 2m more and would fill a starting position role, and essentially helps replace about 70% of Ellsbury's lost WAR, wouldn't that be worth the money?

Let's look at the numbers: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/choosh01.shtml Lifetime averages: .288 BA .389 OBP .465 SLG .854 OPS Last season Choo walked 112 times and has logged 20/20 seasons in 3 of the last 5 years. Choo fits the Red Sox philosophy of grinding out at-bats and wearing down the starting pitcher, extending the inning. Choo's average WAR over the past 5 seasons is 4.14. If the Red Sox sign Choo, they can keep Victorino at his accustomed 2 spot, and Pedroia in the 3 spot. Lineup: 1 Choo 2 Victorino 3 Pedroia 4 Ortiz 5 Napoli 6 Bogaerts 7 Middlebrooks 8 Nava 9 Pyrzinski I think Boras is posturing. Choo is still not as good as Ellsbury, and he's also older. I'm not giving anybody 20m these days unless they are in their prime 25 year old, franchise player. That being said, IF Choo would take a 6 year/108 million dollar deal, do you sign him on the dotted line?

Yankees already signed Beltran. Choo would be the safest bet and is a great leadoff hitter. But he might cost more than we want to spend. If we can move Dempster, plus B+ prospects for Kemp, and they eat some salary, I'd take the risk that he has a bounce back year. He would platoon well with JBJ or move over to left if he doesn't have the legs for CF anymore. http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-sp-1209-dodgers-20131209,0,4277030.story#axzz2n3qBQpNr As for Mujica, yup. Sox seem to like have a great bullpen. They hopefully just added another good arm who can throw some high leverage 7th/8th innings. If we can bridge to Uehara, we're golden.

With a 20m posting fee, that doesn't count against the luxury tax, that is a no-brainer bid for the Red Sox. The only question is, with the Yankees swinging their fat wallet, do we even stand a chance of winning? I think you do due diligence. Bid, negotiate, and see what it takes. Tanaka sounds like he's going to be at least a #2 with upside to be a #1 if his cutter stays filthy at the MLB level with the different ball. The crazy thing about Tanaka? He went undefeated even though he had to throw a 'juiced ball' to NPB batters this past season. I know a lot of people are saying what about the money... Well, how about the fact you don't need to pay any prospects? David Price is going to cost SOMEBODY the farm with Premium Prospects, AND he will want a big fat contract on top of that!

Ellsbury got 7/153. Crawford type money. Actually Crawford only got 7/142. Hate to see Ellsbury in pinstripes, but there was no way the Red Sox were going to match the money and years. We need to get away from that type of contract.

I wouldn't call 16m a discount. I think that's the far market price considering he was signed for 13m per before this season. But what I really like about this deal is that it is only 2 years in length. No long term commitment to our cap dollars. Napoli is a big resigning for the Sox. We can proceed from here.

Don't want Kemp unless Dodgers are eating half his contract. If we wanted a pricey outfielder, we'd just resign Ellsbury because we know he already fits our offense. If you want to talk about acquiring a power hitter, why not Jose Bautista? I believe his contract runs out in 2015. Maybe the Jays would be open to trading him a little early in exchange for some young prospects. His contract is quite reasonable as well all things considering.

Agreed. I don't want Salty back on a multiyear deal. The Sox have a lot of catching prospects they can bring up such as Vazquez and Lavarnway. As we saw in the WS, it's better to have a catcher who can defend, than one who makes mistakes that cost you runs. Perhaps the Sox look at the trade market if they feel they don't have anyone ready for primetime, but I don't see why a platoon of Ross plus young catcher can't work. For me this means that the Sox really need to make sure Napoli comes back and they get a vet CF to platoon with JBJ.

Except that Victorino plays right field? I mean it would be nice if he could play two outfield positions at once but he can't. Victorino will be in right with JBJ in CF with a veteran platoonmate is my projection right now. And we have the Gomes/Nava platoon in LF. It would be nice to get a veteran CF with the range to play center in fenway and occasionally spell Victorino in RF. That guy might be Chris Young or someone similar.