vjcsmoke

They aren't even close offensively. Nava has a career .782 OPS. Choo has a career .854 OPS. Nava's average WAR is .8. Choo's average WAR over the past 5 seasons is 4.14. There's a lot more to the story than some stolen bases. Choo would be an elite leadoff hitter and Nava is... well Nava. A good 4th or utility OF, but if he's a starting OF for you, then your team is in trouble. Of course how the Red Sox should allocate their money is entirely up for discussion. Consider the fact that Napoli makes 16m per year. If Choo only costs 2m more and would fill a starting position role, and essentially helps replace about 70% of Ellsbury's lost WAR, wouldn't that be worth the money?

Let's look at the numbers: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/choosh01.shtml Lifetime averages: .288 BA .389 OBP .465 SLG .854 OPS Last season Choo walked 112 times and has logged 20/20 seasons in 3 of the last 5 years. Choo fits the Red Sox philosophy of grinding out at-bats and wearing down the starting pitcher, extending the inning. Choo's average WAR over the past 5 seasons is 4.14. If the Red Sox sign Choo, they can keep Victorino at his accustomed 2 spot, and Pedroia in the 3 spot. Lineup: 1 Choo 2 Victorino 3 Pedroia 4 Ortiz 5 Napoli 6 Bogaerts 7 Middlebrooks 8 Nava 9 Pyrzinski I think Boras is posturing. Choo is still not as good as Ellsbury, and he's also older. I'm not giving anybody 20m these days unless they are in their prime 25 year old, franchise player. That being said, IF Choo would take a 6 year/108 million dollar deal, do you sign him on the dotted line?

Yankees already signed Beltran. Choo would be the safest bet and is a great leadoff hitter. But he might cost more than we want to spend. If we can move Dempster, plus B+ prospects for Kemp, and they eat some salary, I'd take the risk that he has a bounce back year. He would platoon well with JBJ or move over to left if he doesn't have the legs for CF anymore. http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-sp-1209-dodgers-20131209,0,4277030.story#axzz2n3qBQpNr As for Mujica, yup. Sox seem to like have a great bullpen. They hopefully just added another good arm who can throw some high leverage 7th/8th innings. If we can bridge to Uehara, we're golden.

With a 20m posting fee, that doesn't count against the luxury tax, that is a no-brainer bid for the Red Sox. The only question is, with the Yankees swinging their fat wallet, do we even stand a chance of winning? I think you do due diligence. Bid, negotiate, and see what it takes. Tanaka sounds like he's going to be at least a #2 with upside to be a #1 if his cutter stays filthy at the MLB level with the different ball. The crazy thing about Tanaka? He went undefeated even though he had to throw a 'juiced ball' to NPB batters this past season. I know a lot of people are saying what about the money... Well, how about the fact you don't need to pay any prospects? David Price is going to cost SOMEBODY the farm with Premium Prospects, AND he will want a big fat contract on top of that!

Ellsbury got 7/153. Crawford type money. Actually Crawford only got 7/142. Hate to see Ellsbury in pinstripes, but there was no way the Red Sox were going to match the money and years. We need to get away from that type of contract.

I wouldn't call 16m a discount. I think that's the far market price considering he was signed for 13m per before this season. But what I really like about this deal is that it is only 2 years in length. No long term commitment to our cap dollars. Napoli is a big resigning for the Sox. We can proceed from here.

Don't want Kemp unless Dodgers are eating half his contract. If we wanted a pricey outfielder, we'd just resign Ellsbury because we know he already fits our offense. If you want to talk about acquiring a power hitter, why not Jose Bautista? I believe his contract runs out in 2015. Maybe the Jays would be open to trading him a little early in exchange for some young prospects. His contract is quite reasonable as well all things considering.

Agreed. I don't want Salty back on a multiyear deal. The Sox have a lot of catching prospects they can bring up such as Vazquez and Lavarnway. As we saw in the WS, it's better to have a catcher who can defend, than one who makes mistakes that cost you runs. Perhaps the Sox look at the trade market if they feel they don't have anyone ready for primetime, but I don't see why a platoon of Ross plus young catcher can't work. For me this means that the Sox really need to make sure Napoli comes back and they get a vet CF to platoon with JBJ.

Except that Victorino plays right field? I mean it would be nice if he could play two outfield positions at once but he can't. Victorino will be in right with JBJ in CF with a veteran platoonmate is my projection right now. And we have the Gomes/Nava platoon in LF. It would be nice to get a veteran CF with the range to play center in fenway and occasionally spell Victorino in RF. That guy might be Chris Young or someone similar.

The thing to be leery about with Carp is "small sample size". That being said his .885 OPS in 2013 is very impressive and he looks to be a player who is trending upwards. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpmi01.shtml Add to the fact that he is a left handed bat, and a pretty good pinch hitter, and you have a fairly valuable rotation player for not a lot of money. Then again, he has never had more than 313 at bats in a season. Can you trust Carp with the keys to 1st base? I really like his potential, maybe he can turn into a Youkilis-lite for us. But if we can do it, I'd prefer we resign Napoli for a couple of years and continue to platoon him with Carp. The issue for the Red Sox is that they have basically 4 starting positions where we could potentially see changes - shortstop, centerfield, catcher, 1st base. I think we want to have a mix of youth in there, but likely don't want to plug in youngsters for more than two of those spots in a single season. There's something to be said for consistency and veteran presence. So if I were projecting, I would guess they keep Napoli at first (resign), promote XB to SS, get a veteran at CF to platoon with JBJ, and get a veteran at C to platoon with Ross.

I think that signing Napoli or not is going to shape the Red Sox offseason. Once they confirm that he is in the fold, then they don't need to go after a power bat or do anything drastic. XB will likely to take over at SS. And at catcher if we don't give Lavarnway the shot, maybe we look for a veteran to platoon with Ross. WMB - well he might turn out ok for us, I don't think we desperately need a 3B at this point if the plan is to keep Middlebrooks. JBJ will likely platoon CF in a timeshare with a mid class to cheap veteran outfielder. I'm thinking Beltran might be a fit on a short term deal. He certainly must be hungry for glory after coming up short with the Cardinals.

Anyone interested in Choo? He would be a real great fit for the leadoff spot if Ellsbury leaves. http://www.overthemonster.com/2013/11/11/5090786/red-sox-free-agent-targets-shin-soo-choo His OBP and pitchers per plate appearance are sick. Best walk rate in MLB this past season?

Here's a rumor concerning Boston making a bid for Giancarlo Stanton. This would fill the power vacuum in the outfield to replace Ellsbury's loss. http://bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2013/11/red_sox_could_land_marlins_giancarlo_stanton_with_bold I wouldn't give up Owens or XB. But I think any other prospect is fair game, and perhaps Doubront or Workman could be an attractive part of the trade package as cost controlled ML ready starting pitching. Now if we don't make a huge move for Stanton, what I'd like to see is for the Red Sox to sign Beltran to a short term deal. I think he could be a good firt for us and keep CF occupied until JBJ becomes fully ready to take the starting role.

I would love for the Red Sox to retain Napoli but the deal has to make sense for the team. I think the most they will offer is a 2 year deal considering Nap's age and potential health risks. Not sure about the money but something in the 2/25-2/28 neighborhood is probably fair.

Like seriously?? You title this thread super-minimalist offseason but you want to pay a relief pitcher 13 million per year with a vesting option for 14m?? Why the hardon for Brian Wilson? I mean I know he snubbed the Yankees, because he wouldn't shave his beard. That makes him a cool guy. But an exorbitantly expensive bullpen piece for that pricetag! Yeah, no thanks! I'd rather put that money into a position player or a top 3 starter.

Dempster is a 14m per year #5/6 pitcher. That's pretty awful bang for the buck. As for Workman, until he proves himself, I still see him as a long relief man, fill in for tired pithers occasional pinch starter. It would be nice if he could work his way into the starting rotation, but he'd need a slot to work into. http://www.overthemonster.com/2013/7/10/4511168/red-sox-prospect-brandon-workman-bullpen Sooner or later there will be an injury and he'll get a shot. But I don't count him in the rotation for 2014 yet. I still think the Red Sox need one really solid #2 with the potential to turn into a #1. The way Lester did for us. That guy might be Tanaka. Or I could be wrong. But Tanaka won't cost prospects, he'll count less against the salary cap than a traditional free agent, and he won't cost prospects like a Scherzer or a David Price. Something to think about! Pitching depth wins baseball games period and in the long grind of a 162 game season, you really can't have enough.

The dodgers have too many starting outfielders and although I doubt Puig is on the block, he is obviously the most attractive prize. They DO have a need at 3B so maybe a deal centered around WMB might work. Or it might get laughed off the phone. *shrug* http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/hot-stove-rumors-troy-tulowitzki-matt-kemp-andre-ethier-carl-crawford-carlos-gonzalez-allen-craig-trevor-rosenthal-110713 http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/sarahs-take-dodgers-should-not-deal-an-outfielder?ymd=20131113&content_id=63896584&vkey=news_mlb

PS the proposed change to the bidding system is to average the highest two bids and set that as the payment price to the winner. http://riveraveblues.com/2013/11/davidoff-mlb-and-npb-have-virtually-agreed-on-new-posting-system-96261/ Honestly, I think the player should have some input into what team he goes to. I think what should have been done was - top 3 bids win a right to negotiate. Then player and his agent can negotiate with those 3 teams, and pick the winner. This way the team that offers the most desirable situation and contract gets the player as long as they are in the top 3 bids. Of course the problem with this system is that it benefits the player more than it does the selling team. But imagine this situation - Team 1 bid 80m Team 2 bid 60m Team 3 bid 40m Team 3 can offer a vastly more lucrative contract deal to the player because their cost of acquisition is much lower. Hmm I dunno, there must be a better way, but I can't think of it right now. LOL.

That's just a lot of posturing. Someone is gonna backup a truckload of money right into the lap of Boras and Ellsbury. And from what Henry just said, it sounds like it won't be the Red Sox.

Well Trout established himself as untouchable this year, proving that 2012 wasn't a fluke. Puig on the other hand has had one good rookie year. But maybe the Dodgers try to sell high, but maybe it's a price we can afford since we have some pretty good prospects to offer. Not to mention we need to replace Ellsbury's production in the outfield somehow. Another young guy we might look into acquiring would be Billy Hamilton of the Reds. He had 148 stolen bases in the minors and might turn into the leadoff guy of the future. I know we have JBJ already but he's not exactly a speedster. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamilbi02.shtml

When we first got him, he looked like an albatross. But after his performance in 2013, including the playoffs, Lackey looks like the gift that keeps on giving. This salary loophole is great. That means for 2015, he counts a measley 500k on the cap, and if we time Lester's extension to start in 2015... well that helps a ton for the red sox cap figure! The question still remains of course, what do we do at catcher, do we resign ellsbury or do we give JBJ the job, and can we resign Napoli for a reasonable price? PS If I were trying to acquire an OF from the Dodgers, I'd be targeting Yasil Puig, not Kemp. Would it be possible to create a package centered on Nava and Middlebrooks for Puig?? PPS Speaking of Puig. The Red Sox have to be willing to take some risks and trust their international scouting if they are going to land an impact free agent. Because going head to head with the Yankees on a well known prospect - well you generally don't win bidding wars against the Yankees. But look what Puig did his rookie year, age 22, .925 OPS. That is ridiculous. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/puigya01.shtml But websites like baseballamerica were writing articles about how other teams were 'puzzled' that the dodgers gave him a 'lavish' 6 years/42m dollar deal. Looks like a bargain basement deal now for the talent they got in return. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2012/2613621.html Anyways, in addition to retaining a few key free agents, the Red Sox are also going to have to continue to find undervalued gems, like the way they found Uehara if they want to continue their run for the playoffs next year.

Great to hear from across the pond! I had no idea that Liverpool was also baseball country. I guess we share ownership in common. Just as an aside, after I heard Liverpool was also owned by the same group as the Red Sox, I decided to start a Liverpool save on Football Manager 2014. I don't know if that game is popular with fans in the UK, but I certainly learned a lot about footballers just from playing it that I otherwise would never have known! Hopefully your following the Red Sox has brought you further enjoyment and appreciation of the game known as our 'national pastime'. Although arguably American Football is bigger here now. Do any of you guys in Liverpool or the UK follow the New England Patriots?

When comparing Ellsbury to JBJ, the comparision is made offensively because... JBJ is a ++ defensive prospect. I don't believe you will see much dropoff at all between JBJ and Ellsbury defensively. In fact JBJ might have the advantage because he is younger. Might have more range and legs to him. Although Ellsbury has the experience edge, I think JBJ can learn to play Fenway. You can't teach the physical defensive tools he already has though. JBJ Defensive Player of the Year 2012: http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/baseball/372504-jackie-bradley-jr-defensive-player-year.html Baseball prospectus scouting report: "A natural center fielder, Bradley displays a high level of grace and fluidity when manning his position. His instincts allow him to move with the crack of the bat, giving him above-average-to-better range despite only average speed. Bradley hunts down balls in the outfield, making difficult plays look easy and hauling in chances that most outfielders don’t. His well-above-average defense is capped off by a plus arm, making him one of the top, if not the top, overall outfield defenders I’ve seen in the last handful of seasons in the minors." http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20062 In short, the worries about JBJ's bat may or may not be justified, but I don't see any reason to worry about his glove in center field.

That's a completely different situation. Brady has never missed game time due to the 'phantom' shoulder injury. But Napoli has missed 126 games over the last 3 seasons alone. I could see a two year incentive laden deal tied to games played plus an option year. I don't think Napoli will get a crazy FA contract offer and do believe that he wants to stay in Boston where he has experienced a very successful season.

True it's hard to tell which way Tanaka would lean right now. I think he's just trying to focus on his team's playoffs right now. The surest way to win is to get the highest bid, BUT again we don't know how the posting system will change. Still a lot of ways this could go. But I think the Red Sox will do due diligence to investigate all reasonable avenues of improving their team. BTW I just found out that Tanaka's team, the Tohoku Golden Eagles just defeated the Yomiuri Giants to win the NPB championship. http://www.ibaf.org/en/news/2013/11/03/tohoku-rakuten-golden-eagles-win-2013-npb-champion/075678ce-7dae-410d-bfa6-6ae60cbd7da0 Now that their postseason is over, I expect to see more news soon about where Tanaka might be heading next.