vjcsmoke

The thing to be leery about with Carp is "small sample size". That being said his .885 OPS in 2013 is very impressive and he looks to be a player who is trending upwards. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpmi01.shtml Add to the fact that he is a left handed bat, and a pretty good pinch hitter, and you have a fairly valuable rotation player for not a lot of money. Then again, he has never had more than 313 at bats in a season. Can you trust Carp with the keys to 1st base? I really like his potential, maybe he can turn into a Youkilis-lite for us. But if we can do it, I'd prefer we resign Napoli for a couple of years and continue to platoon him with Carp. The issue for the Red Sox is that they have basically 4 starting positions where we could potentially see changes - shortstop, centerfield, catcher, 1st base. I think we want to have a mix of youth in there, but likely don't want to plug in youngsters for more than two of those spots in a single season. There's something to be said for consistency and veteran presence. So if I were projecting, I would guess they keep Napoli at first (resign), promote XB to SS, get a veteran at CF to platoon with JBJ, and get a veteran at C to platoon with Ross.

I think that signing Napoli or not is going to shape the Red Sox offseason. Once they confirm that he is in the fold, then they don't need to go after a power bat or do anything drastic. XB will likely to take over at SS. And at catcher if we don't give Lavarnway the shot, maybe we look for a veteran to platoon with Ross. WMB - well he might turn out ok for us, I don't think we desperately need a 3B at this point if the plan is to keep Middlebrooks. JBJ will likely platoon CF in a timeshare with a mid class to cheap veteran outfielder. I'm thinking Beltran might be a fit on a short term deal. He certainly must be hungry for glory after coming up short with the Cardinals.

Anyone interested in Choo? He would be a real great fit for the leadoff spot if Ellsbury leaves. http://www.overthemonster.com/2013/11/11/5090786/red-sox-free-agent-targets-shin-soo-choo His OBP and pitchers per plate appearance are sick. Best walk rate in MLB this past season?

Here's a rumor concerning Boston making a bid for Giancarlo Stanton. This would fill the power vacuum in the outfield to replace Ellsbury's loss. http://bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2013/11/red_sox_could_land_marlins_giancarlo_stanton_with_bold I wouldn't give up Owens or XB. But I think any other prospect is fair game, and perhaps Doubront or Workman could be an attractive part of the trade package as cost controlled ML ready starting pitching. Now if we don't make a huge move for Stanton, what I'd like to see is for the Red Sox to sign Beltran to a short term deal. I think he could be a good firt for us and keep CF occupied until JBJ becomes fully ready to take the starting role.

I would love for the Red Sox to retain Napoli but the deal has to make sense for the team. I think the most they will offer is a 2 year deal considering Nap's age and potential health risks. Not sure about the money but something in the 2/25-2/28 neighborhood is probably fair.

Like seriously?? You title this thread super-minimalist offseason but you want to pay a relief pitcher 13 million per year with a vesting option for 14m?? Why the hardon for Brian Wilson? I mean I know he snubbed the Yankees, because he wouldn't shave his beard. That makes him a cool guy. But an exorbitantly expensive bullpen piece for that pricetag! Yeah, no thanks! I'd rather put that money into a position player or a top 3 starter.

Dempster is a 14m per year #5/6 pitcher. That's pretty awful bang for the buck. As for Workman, until he proves himself, I still see him as a long relief man, fill in for tired pithers occasional pinch starter. It would be nice if he could work his way into the starting rotation, but he'd need a slot to work into. http://www.overthemonster.com/2013/7/10/4511168/red-sox-prospect-brandon-workman-bullpen Sooner or later there will be an injury and he'll get a shot. But I don't count him in the rotation for 2014 yet. I still think the Red Sox need one really solid #2 with the potential to turn into a #1. The way Lester did for us. That guy might be Tanaka. Or I could be wrong. But Tanaka won't cost prospects, he'll count less against the salary cap than a traditional free agent, and he won't cost prospects like a Scherzer or a David Price. Something to think about! Pitching depth wins baseball games period and in the long grind of a 162 game season, you really can't have enough.

The dodgers have too many starting outfielders and although I doubt Puig is on the block, he is obviously the most attractive prize. They DO have a need at 3B so maybe a deal centered around WMB might work. Or it might get laughed off the phone. *shrug* http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/hot-stove-rumors-troy-tulowitzki-matt-kemp-andre-ethier-carl-crawford-carlos-gonzalez-allen-craig-trevor-rosenthal-110713 http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/sarahs-take-dodgers-should-not-deal-an-outfielder?ymd=20131113&content_id=63896584&vkey=news_mlb

PS the proposed change to the bidding system is to average the highest two bids and set that as the payment price to the winner. http://riveraveblues.com/2013/11/davidoff-mlb-and-npb-have-virtually-agreed-on-new-posting-system-96261/ Honestly, I think the player should have some input into what team he goes to. I think what should have been done was - top 3 bids win a right to negotiate. Then player and his agent can negotiate with those 3 teams, and pick the winner. This way the team that offers the most desirable situation and contract gets the player as long as they are in the top 3 bids. Of course the problem with this system is that it benefits the player more than it does the selling team. But imagine this situation - Team 1 bid 80m Team 2 bid 60m Team 3 bid 40m Team 3 can offer a vastly more lucrative contract deal to the player because their cost of acquisition is much lower. Hmm I dunno, there must be a better way, but I can't think of it right now. LOL.

That's just a lot of posturing. Someone is gonna backup a truckload of money right into the lap of Boras and Ellsbury. And from what Henry just said, it sounds like it won't be the Red Sox.

Well Trout established himself as untouchable this year, proving that 2012 wasn't a fluke. Puig on the other hand has had one good rookie year. But maybe the Dodgers try to sell high, but maybe it's a price we can afford since we have some pretty good prospects to offer. Not to mention we need to replace Ellsbury's production in the outfield somehow. Another young guy we might look into acquiring would be Billy Hamilton of the Reds. He had 148 stolen bases in the minors and might turn into the leadoff guy of the future. I know we have JBJ already but he's not exactly a speedster. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamilbi02.shtml

When we first got him, he looked like an albatross. But after his performance in 2013, including the playoffs, Lackey looks like the gift that keeps on giving. This salary loophole is great. That means for 2015, he counts a measley 500k on the cap, and if we time Lester's extension to start in 2015... well that helps a ton for the red sox cap figure! The question still remains of course, what do we do at catcher, do we resign ellsbury or do we give JBJ the job, and can we resign Napoli for a reasonable price? PS If I were trying to acquire an OF from the Dodgers, I'd be targeting Yasil Puig, not Kemp. Would it be possible to create a package centered on Nava and Middlebrooks for Puig?? PPS Speaking of Puig. The Red Sox have to be willing to take some risks and trust their international scouting if they are going to land an impact free agent. Because going head to head with the Yankees on a well known prospect - well you generally don't win bidding wars against the Yankees. But look what Puig did his rookie year, age 22, .925 OPS. That is ridiculous. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/puigya01.shtml But websites like baseballamerica were writing articles about how other teams were 'puzzled' that the dodgers gave him a 'lavish' 6 years/42m dollar deal. Looks like a bargain basement deal now for the talent they got in return. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2012/2613621.html Anyways, in addition to retaining a few key free agents, the Red Sox are also going to have to continue to find undervalued gems, like the way they found Uehara if they want to continue their run for the playoffs next year.

Great to hear from across the pond! I had no idea that Liverpool was also baseball country. I guess we share ownership in common. Just as an aside, after I heard Liverpool was also owned by the same group as the Red Sox, I decided to start a Liverpool save on Football Manager 2014. I don't know if that game is popular with fans in the UK, but I certainly learned a lot about footballers just from playing it that I otherwise would never have known! Hopefully your following the Red Sox has brought you further enjoyment and appreciation of the game known as our 'national pastime'. Although arguably American Football is bigger here now. Do any of you guys in Liverpool or the UK follow the New England Patriots?

When comparing Ellsbury to JBJ, the comparision is made offensively because... JBJ is a ++ defensive prospect. I don't believe you will see much dropoff at all between JBJ and Ellsbury defensively. In fact JBJ might have the advantage because he is younger. Might have more range and legs to him. Although Ellsbury has the experience edge, I think JBJ can learn to play Fenway. You can't teach the physical defensive tools he already has though. JBJ Defensive Player of the Year 2012: http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/baseball/372504-jackie-bradley-jr-defensive-player-year.html Baseball prospectus scouting report: "A natural center fielder, Bradley displays a high level of grace and fluidity when manning his position. His instincts allow him to move with the crack of the bat, giving him above-average-to-better range despite only average speed. Bradley hunts down balls in the outfield, making difficult plays look easy and hauling in chances that most outfielders don’t. His well-above-average defense is capped off by a plus arm, making him one of the top, if not the top, overall outfield defenders I’ve seen in the last handful of seasons in the minors." http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20062 In short, the worries about JBJ's bat may or may not be justified, but I don't see any reason to worry about his glove in center field.

That's a completely different situation. Brady has never missed game time due to the 'phantom' shoulder injury. But Napoli has missed 126 games over the last 3 seasons alone. I could see a two year incentive laden deal tied to games played plus an option year. I don't think Napoli will get a crazy FA contract offer and do believe that he wants to stay in Boston where he has experienced a very successful season.

True it's hard to tell which way Tanaka would lean right now. I think he's just trying to focus on his team's playoffs right now. The surest way to win is to get the highest bid, BUT again we don't know how the posting system will change. Still a lot of ways this could go. But I think the Red Sox will do due diligence to investigate all reasonable avenues of improving their team. BTW I just found out that Tanaka's team, the Tohoku Golden Eagles just defeated the Yomiuri Giants to win the NPB championship. http://www.ibaf.org/en/news/2013/11/03/tohoku-rakuten-golden-eagles-win-2013-npb-champion/075678ce-7dae-410d-bfa6-6ae60cbd7da0 Now that their postseason is over, I expect to see more news soon about where Tanaka might be heading next.

What I hear is that the posting system might be reformed to allow the player to be sold more input on the process. So if Tanaka has a choice between bidders [assuming that both bids are relatively close and acceptable] it is quite possible he might choose the Red Sox over the Yankees considering that the Sox just won the World Series and the Yanks didn't even make the postseason.

Not to mention, don't forget that the posting fee DOES NOT COUNT against the Red Sox salary payroll. Therefore they won't have to worry about bumping up against the luxury cap by bidding on Tanaka. Merely offloading a lesser pitcher like Dempster will offer either a straight swap of salary or even an overall salary DEDUCTION on the payroll.

Seriously? 5 bad answers? Let's examine that starting 5 in the upcoming 2014 season: 1. Jon Lester - Age 30. Has proved himself to be the staff ace in the playoffs. Will need to be PAID BIG to be extended longterm because he has a buyout option in his contract. 2. Clay Buccholz - Age 29. Finally had an elite first half of the season. But broke down due to injuries. Has only pitched over 150 innings in 2 out of his 7 seasons at the professional level. Injury RISK. 3. John Lackey - Age 35. Clearly has turned the corner and put on some gutsy playoff performances. His career 4.04 era and 1.32 WHIP make him a strong #3 pitcher but certainly no ace. Club option in 2015. An aging player, who can hopefully give us a couple more good years but may need to be replaced soon. 4. Jake Peavy - Age 33. He played solid in the regular season. But he was pretty bad in the playoffs. There's no way we wanted to give him the ball in game 7 and if we did it would have been with a very short leash. Another aging player who will hopefully give us another couple of decent seasons. 5. Felix Doubront - Age 26. An improving young pitcher. However he owns career ERA of 4.62 and career WHIP of 1.455. Hard to see him as anything other than a back of the rotation/bullpen pitcher unless he makes drastic strides next season. So 3 out of those 5 pitchers 30+ years old, 1 is injury prone, and 1 is young unproven and unspectacular. I think there is ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT. The thing about Tanaka is that he has proven himself as a #1 pitcher in his country and he is only going to be 25 if/when the Red Sox sign him. Is he going to be the next Yu Darvish? Not exactly. He's a different type of pitcher. I don't think he will post that crazy strikeout rate but he does have a chance to be really good. I mean his money pitch is the splitter and Uehara has shown just how devastating that splitfinger can be against major league batters. I don't know if we will succeed in signing Tanaka, but I think the Red Sox should definitely investigate that option and see if it's possible. Repeating WS titles is VERY tough, and we will need to make a few key additions if the Red Sox want to successfully defend their title.

The problem with Salty is that he's still a very mediocre to slightly below average defensive catcher. I'd rather let Salty walk and try to upgrade on him by signing McCann in FA. McCann is also an offensive upgrade. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccanbr01.shtml

If there is one axiom of baseball that has remained true, it seems to be - "You can never have enough good starting pitching." We saw this happen in the postseason this year. Add to that axion - "You can never have enough good relief pitching." Boston's combo of relief pitchers headlined by Tazawa and Uehara slammed the door shut more times than not, especially when the game was on the line. Outside of Lester, Lackey, though, there were genuine concerns about who would pitch game 7. Buccholz looked like toast after he struggled to post 4 innings of gutsy pitching. And of course you never know when injuries will strike. With the recent success of Japanese pitchers such as Yu Darvish, Uehara, and Tazawa, it has become clear that Japanese nationals CAN make the transition to the MLB with great success. The question is, how successful will Tanaka be, and will he be worth the 'posting fee'. Another factor in Tanaka's pursuit is the reported high interest by the NY Yankees. If the Red Sox obtain Tanaka they will not only strengthen their rotation, but they prevent a division foe from getting better as well. If the Red Sox scouting department believes Tanaka will be a pitcher in the same tier as a Yu Dervish, the Red Sox should give a very serious pursuit. If Tanaka lives up to expections he may well make the difference in chasing consecutive World Series championships. And having both Uehara and Tazawa here already will likely ease Tanaka's transition to the Majors. Reading material: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/japanese-ace-masahiro-tanaka-will-make-historic-money-but-questions-abound-171014762.html http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/dodger-report/post/_/id/8209/the-costs-and-benefits-of-pursuing-masahiro-tanaka http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/undefeated-japanese-ace-masahiro-tanaka-could-spark-mlb-free-agency-bidding-war-101113

So long as the next one doesn't take 85 years!! LOL

I don't think you sell Lester right now. He's a great fit for the team, and pitchers, unlike position players tend to have longer shelf lives. He has also been pretty durable for us which is another indicator that he is deserving of a long term extension. Lester put on a dominant WS and I don't think we will see much slippage from him over the coming years. I think any long term deal should have some incentives to protect somewhat from missed appearances due to injury, but I think he is a top of the rotation starter for at least the next 5 years. This is the type of pitcher you need to win a World Series.

I don't think the Red Sox should sell low on WMB. But at age 25, I wouldn't call him 'so young' anymore. A lot of baseball prospects come into their own in the 22-24 year old window. WMB is actually a slightly older prospect imo. Youk was more of an exception. Most ball player's don't bloom that late. Youk didn't hit his full stride until age 27. I think we'll give WMB another chance to show something next year, but we will likely move him at the trade deadline if he doesn't show he is good enough to be a regular starter. Right now there is ZERO reason to choose WMB over Xander Bogaerts as a starting player.

I believe we have a team option on Bailey for 2014. But I don't know if we're going to pick it up. http://blog.masslive.com/redsoxmonster/2013/06/boston_red_sox_2013_it_is_near.html When it comes to Ellsbury, ultimately pricetag/length of contract and who can we replace him with. Those are going to be the main factors on whether he stays or goes.