vjcsmoke

What I hear is that the posting system might be reformed to allow the player to be sold more input on the process. So if Tanaka has a choice between bidders [assuming that both bids are relatively close and acceptable] it is quite possible he might choose the Red Sox over the Yankees considering that the Sox just won the World Series and the Yanks didn't even make the postseason.

Not to mention, don't forget that the posting fee DOES NOT COUNT against the Red Sox salary payroll. Therefore they won't have to worry about bumping up against the luxury cap by bidding on Tanaka. Merely offloading a lesser pitcher like Dempster will offer either a straight swap of salary or even an overall salary DEDUCTION on the payroll.

Seriously? 5 bad answers? Let's examine that starting 5 in the upcoming 2014 season: 1. Jon Lester - Age 30. Has proved himself to be the staff ace in the playoffs. Will need to be PAID BIG to be extended longterm because he has a buyout option in his contract. 2. Clay Buccholz - Age 29. Finally had an elite first half of the season. But broke down due to injuries. Has only pitched over 150 innings in 2 out of his 7 seasons at the professional level. Injury RISK. 3. John Lackey - Age 35. Clearly has turned the corner and put on some gutsy playoff performances. His career 4.04 era and 1.32 WHIP make him a strong #3 pitcher but certainly no ace. Club option in 2015. An aging player, who can hopefully give us a couple more good years but may need to be replaced soon. 4. Jake Peavy - Age 33. He played solid in the regular season. But he was pretty bad in the playoffs. There's no way we wanted to give him the ball in game 7 and if we did it would have been with a very short leash. Another aging player who will hopefully give us another couple of decent seasons. 5. Felix Doubront - Age 26. An improving young pitcher. However he owns career ERA of 4.62 and career WHIP of 1.455. Hard to see him as anything other than a back of the rotation/bullpen pitcher unless he makes drastic strides next season. So 3 out of those 5 pitchers 30+ years old, 1 is injury prone, and 1 is young unproven and unspectacular. I think there is ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT. The thing about Tanaka is that he has proven himself as a #1 pitcher in his country and he is only going to be 25 if/when the Red Sox sign him. Is he going to be the next Yu Darvish? Not exactly. He's a different type of pitcher. I don't think he will post that crazy strikeout rate but he does have a chance to be really good. I mean his money pitch is the splitter and Uehara has shown just how devastating that splitfinger can be against major league batters. I don't know if we will succeed in signing Tanaka, but I think the Red Sox should definitely investigate that option and see if it's possible. Repeating WS titles is VERY tough, and we will need to make a few key additions if the Red Sox want to successfully defend their title.

The problem with Salty is that he's still a very mediocre to slightly below average defensive catcher. I'd rather let Salty walk and try to upgrade on him by signing McCann in FA. McCann is also an offensive upgrade. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccanbr01.shtml

If there is one axiom of baseball that has remained true, it seems to be - "You can never have enough good starting pitching." We saw this happen in the postseason this year. Add to that axion - "You can never have enough good relief pitching." Boston's combo of relief pitchers headlined by Tazawa and Uehara slammed the door shut more times than not, especially when the game was on the line. Outside of Lester, Lackey, though, there were genuine concerns about who would pitch game 7. Buccholz looked like toast after he struggled to post 4 innings of gutsy pitching. And of course you never know when injuries will strike. With the recent success of Japanese pitchers such as Yu Darvish, Uehara, and Tazawa, it has become clear that Japanese nationals CAN make the transition to the MLB with great success. The question is, how successful will Tanaka be, and will he be worth the 'posting fee'. Another factor in Tanaka's pursuit is the reported high interest by the NY Yankees. If the Red Sox obtain Tanaka they will not only strengthen their rotation, but they prevent a division foe from getting better as well. If the Red Sox scouting department believes Tanaka will be a pitcher in the same tier as a Yu Dervish, the Red Sox should give a very serious pursuit. If Tanaka lives up to expections he may well make the difference in chasing consecutive World Series championships. And having both Uehara and Tazawa here already will likely ease Tanaka's transition to the Majors. Reading material: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/japanese-ace-masahiro-tanaka-will-make-historic-money-but-questions-abound-171014762.html http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/dodger-report/post/_/id/8209/the-costs-and-benefits-of-pursuing-masahiro-tanaka http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/undefeated-japanese-ace-masahiro-tanaka-could-spark-mlb-free-agency-bidding-war-101113

So long as the next one doesn't take 85 years!! LOL

I don't think you sell Lester right now. He's a great fit for the team, and pitchers, unlike position players tend to have longer shelf lives. He has also been pretty durable for us which is another indicator that he is deserving of a long term extension. Lester put on a dominant WS and I don't think we will see much slippage from him over the coming years. I think any long term deal should have some incentives to protect somewhat from missed appearances due to injury, but I think he is a top of the rotation starter for at least the next 5 years. This is the type of pitcher you need to win a World Series.

I don't think the Red Sox should sell low on WMB. But at age 25, I wouldn't call him 'so young' anymore. A lot of baseball prospects come into their own in the 22-24 year old window. WMB is actually a slightly older prospect imo. Youk was more of an exception. Most ball player's don't bloom that late. Youk didn't hit his full stride until age 27. I think we'll give WMB another chance to show something next year, but we will likely move him at the trade deadline if he doesn't show he is good enough to be a regular starter. Right now there is ZERO reason to choose WMB over Xander Bogaerts as a starting player.

I believe we have a team option on Bailey for 2014. But I don't know if we're going to pick it up. http://blog.masslive.com/redsoxmonster/2013/06/boston_red_sox_2013_it_is_near.html When it comes to Ellsbury, ultimately pricetag/length of contract and who can we replace him with. Those are going to be the main factors on whether he stays or goes.

Yup, if he took an 8/110 deal like Pedroia did, he would remain in Boston for a long time. But with Boras his agent I very much doubt that would happen.

Well if they trade him in 2011 we don't win the WS in 2013. So I'm glad we kept him. Red Sox had the lowest team batting average of any World Series Winner!! David Ortiz WS Batting average .688 2nd highest in WS history. Ortiz .465 career WS batting average - highest in major league history of any player with at least 50 plate appearances.

Cherington gets an A+ from me for this season. 1. You have to give him credit for unloading the huge and unwanted salaries of Crawford, Gonzalez, Beckett, and Punto. The salary relief was HUGE. Getting those headcases out of the clubhouse was probably even bigger. Not to mention the Dodgers kicked in a few prospects as well. 2. He acquired World Series winning skipper John Farrel for Aviles. Yes he pried away a WS quality manager for the price of a backup infielder. That is also HUGE and we don't wins the WS without Farrell. Brilliant move there. 3. Amazingly enough his free agent acquisitions pretty much ALL made positive contributions to the championship run. It's always risky to go for bulk purchases in free agency because it is uncertain how they will all fit together. But to his credit he targeted high character guys who really turned around the atmosphere in the clubhouse. How about getting the best closer in all of baseball for just 4.25m? Awesome! http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/27/sports/baseball/in-bulk-purchase-of-free-agents-the-red-sox-go-7-for-7.html?_r=0 Yes, Cherington had some luck on his side, but he also made a lot of smart moves to put together this championship winning roster. BC has earned all the praises that are coming his way. It looks like Boston chose the right man for the job to take over for Epstein.

Tell that to his agent. I don't believe there's any way Boras will agree to only 5 years. He is gonna milk Ellsbury's last big contract for all its worth. And I see no indications Ellsbury will ever hit 20 homeruns. Outside of the one freak year, he has never hit double digit homers. That's just not his strength. “Two things separate Ellsbury [from Crawford]. Carl Crawford was never proven as a leadoff hitter, and Carl Crawford is not a center fielder,'' Boras said. “They are two different animals. It's not a consideration because he's a corner outfielder. Just think if Carl Crawford could play center field.” Boras went on to mention a few other differences between Ellsbury and Crawford. “Carl Crawford never had success in Boston. And he never won a ring in Boston,'' Boras said. Plus, "Crawford never hit twenty home runs, and Jacoby hit 30," Boras added. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/23495290/boras-compares-ellsbury-to-carl-crawford-and-an-aircraft-carrier Boras is obviously trying to upsell Ellsbury from Crawford. Considering Crawford got 7/142 what will he be asking for Ellsbury?? Short answer: Even More.

I think that Middlebrooks will be end up getting traded. If we can get an elite 1st base prospect, maybe we move him for someone who is MLB ready to play 1st but is blocked in the pipeline. It is no sure thing that we get back Napoli. I think 3/30 is a bit much for a guy with no bat. Love Drew's defense but his hitting makes me cringe. He was like 5/40 in the World Series or something like that?

Take a 'flyer' on him? I think your idea of a 'flyer' is misplaced. We're talking about 7 years 140m here or 8/160. That's not a flyer that's a huge financial investment and risk. If we were talking 5/75, I'm all on board for resigning Ellsbury. But his agent Scott Boras, is one of the greediest in sports. I don't expect any hometown discount. And locking up a guy for 8 years at 20m plus per year when he is known to be injury prone is a BAD idea. Another way to think about this, how many impact at bats did Ellsbury have this World Series? How many impact steals? I can't really remember any memorable moments for him in the WS. Will it hurt to move on from Ellsbury? Of course. And I appreciate what he has given Boston. But you can't hold on to everyone. And some risks are not worth taking. We're talking about taking a 30 year old Ellsbury and signing him into his year 38 season at over 100 milion dollars plus investment.

In light of the Red Sox' appearance in the World Series this year, and Victorino's contributions to our cause, do you care to RETRACT your statements now?

Why can't Victorino lead off and JBJ bat at the bottom of the order until he gets fully acclimated? His numbers are quite similar to Ellsbury and he even offers a little more pop at the plate. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/victosh01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/ellsbja01.shtml If you compare the two, Victorino has pretty good speed and OBP. I don't see why he couldn't bat leadoff in an ellsbury-less lineup. Also consider that Xander Bogaerts will likely make huge strides in the near future. It wouldn't surprise me to see him as our #3 hitter in a couple years. 1. Victorino 2. Pedroia 3. Bogaerts 4. Ortiz 5. Napoli That's not a bad top of the order. And JBJ should be fully ready in a couple of years time as well.

What is this power of which you speak? Are you talking about that one outlier year where Ells hit 32 homeruns, slugged .552 and has thereafter NEVER eclipsed double digit dingers in a season since? You overestimate Ellsbury and I'll take a professional scout's opinion over that of a message board poster, no offense. Jackie Bradley scouting report 2012: Hit 50/60 Power 40/40 Arm 50/50 Fielding 70/70 Speed 50/50 In other words JBJ should be above average in just about every major league category. Don't know where you took math but that doesn't add up to be 50% of Ellsbury. Ellsbury is GOOD but he's no Rickey Henderson. And like I said before, we got over losing Johnny Damon, who was a better hitter than Ellsbury btw, we'll get over Ells. I'm not saying I want to lose him, but you have to be financially practical when building a team.

Seriously. Ellsbury plays nothing like Bonds. Even if Bonds wasn't stealing bases, he'd be hitting homeruns. And even when he wasn't hitting homeruns he was getting on base through walks at an astronomical rate. Not going to even get into Bonds slugging, but his career OBP alone is .444. Ellsbury career OBP is .350. They aren't even CLOSE. As for should we keep Ellsbury. No, not if it will cost us a 100m+ deal. And I am sensing his agent wants something like 7 years 140m or even 7/150. The Red Sox should not put that much payroll into ONE player. Haven't they learned their lesson already with Carl Crawford? If Jackie Bradley Jr is even 80% of Ellsbury, his MUCH reduced payroll rate means we should give him a shot. We can't completely replace Ellsbury and I will always be thankful for what he has given to Boston but not at the monster price tag being demanded. Remember when we thought - what will we ever do without Johnny Damon? Well we got over that. We'll get over Ellsbury as well. If Ellsbury was demanding 15m per year, I'd say keep him, but his agent is going to be asking for a TON more.

Troll post is troll. I think people should be required to have 100 posts before they are allowed to start new topics in the forum. Red Sox have the Best record in MLB. Please crawl back under your troll bridge. Anyone else want to talk real baseball? Because this thread should have be locked so that real fans don't waste their time with it. Ignore the troll. It's probably a bitter yankee fan just joined the forum to stir up $%!# cos his team is out of the playoffs and he's J-E-A-L-O-U-S.

I'd go 5/75 for Ellsbury. He would be a stabilizing presence in the lineup. But I would not go for the reported asking price of 20m per year. 8/160 or 10/200, I want ZERO part in that. Jackie Bradley Junior will likely be at least 85% as good and will cost a lot less money. I'd rather spend the big money on a star starting pitcher or power hitting 1B or LF in next year's free agent market.

Iggy has a magic glove. And that I think will stay but his bat turned back into a pumpkin in July. The Red Sox had a unique opportunity because Detroit's SS was about to be banned/suspended for 50 games, and they needed a defensive SS badly. We had what they needed in Iglesias and they took it, in exchange we got what we needed , Peavy, a solid #2/#3 veteran pitcher to bolster our rotation for a playoff run. Really hard to get upset about this trade. I think Iggy's upside is a 250-270 batter with maybe a 650-700 ops with a great glove. We might miss his defense but not his bat. Plus we've got Xander Bogaerts waiting in the wings. Bogaerts has Hanley Ramirez type upside.

With Buccholz situation in the air, this is the kind of pitcher you need to get back to solidify the rotation. I still think Lester/Lackey are your top guys until CB comes back. But remember even WS contenders need a Derek Lowe type of pitcher. At this point in his career that's how I see Peavy, and that's not bad at all. He's a veteran pitcher who has seen a lot, and will probably get better as he settles in with the Sox.

I would go 4/52 for Ellsbury. A Johnny Damon type deal. Max I'd go would be 4/60. Jacoby's main asset is his speed and that diminishes with age and injuries. If we want comparable defense, we would get that from JBJ for just .5 million per year. The question with Jackie is will he develop the hitting ability. He struggled mightily vs big league pitching. But that could change just a year from now.

ROFL. Did you just compare Ellsbury to Trout? All your credibility just went out the window. Mike Trout hit 30 homeruns at age TWENTY. He's a 950 ops CF. Ellsbury has more speed than Trout but can't touch him in terms of power or getting onto base consistently. Ellsbury has also been off and on with injuries and hasn't sniffed double digit homeruns since his one great year in 2011. To me that 2011 season is looking more and more like a statistical outlier. Was he on the juice or was he just in 'the zone' that year? Who knows, but it does look like he will Never have that kind of season again. I'd trade Ellsbury and top 10 farm prospects for Mike Trout easily, and LAA would just laugh and hang up the phone if that offer were made. And JUSTIFIABLY so. Hate on Pedroia if you like, you're entitled to your opinion. 13.75m aav for an elite two-way 2b is good value though imo. And once Cano signs his deal, Dustin's will look like a huge bargain. In any case the Ellsbury to Trout comparisons are ridiculous.