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Here's an article from ESPN that explains how baseball insurance works. Insurance for a human is obviously not the same as for a car. The example given was Albert Belle who signed a 5 year/65 million dollar contract with the Orioles. Article: ESPN.com - Major League Baseball - Sports Insurance 101: A primer TLDR: Insurance can cover from 50% to 80% of a player's salary when they are injured. Standard is 70%. There is a waiting period before you can collect the money, usually 90 days or 182 days. Basic maths if the player's salary is 10 million per year and misses 30 days: 1. $10 million (season salary) divided by 182 (days in season) = $54,945 per day 2. Multiply $54,945 times 30 days missed due to injury = $1.645 million loss to team 3. 70 percent (amount insurance company covers) of $1.645 million = $1.154 million 4. $1.154 minus amount of premium = total amount insurance company pays team Buying insurance for a player is a no brainer especially if he is injury prone, you just have to pay a higher premium depending on the position or injury history.

Two year deals are reserved for guys who will be injured the first year for the Red Sox. Giolito was on IR for all of 2024. Thus the Red Sox only paid 20% of his salary that year even though on the payroll it looked like they had a 20 million dollar per year player. Sandoval was coming off elbow surgery and did not play for the Red Sox at all in 2025. Again on the books it looks like they have an 18 million dollar player. In reality the insurance picked up 80% of the salary because he never played for us. This is the beauty of signing injury prone players. The accountants can put 20 million on the payroll but in reality the club pays peanuts. We might actually see Sandoval play in 2026, but I doubt he will make a big difference. In case you are still skeptical that the Red Sox are being intentionally cheap take a look at the payroll versus revenue stats from Sportrac. As you can see the Red Sox are 4th in overall revenue in MLB. They trail only the LA Dodgers #1, the New York Yankees #2, and The Chicago Cubs #3 in total revenues. Yet their payroll percentage versus their revenue is 23rd overall in professional baseball. And we're not even counting the fake 2 year contracts such as Giolito or Sandoval who never play a game for the Red Sox even if their money is officially on the books. Quite frankly I'm disgusted by how the 4th biggest team in MLB is being run like they are bottom dwelling minnows. The ownership has failed the fans. They have disappointed year after year and this has become a clear pattern of behavior now and it's tiresome.

Would you be interested in the Red Sox signing any of the Japanese free agents? I think a low cost option for 1st base could be Okamoto at around 3 years/45 million. He's an experienced player who could man 1st base at a reasonable price. Or would you want to go for a top 3 pitcher like Imai, although projections have his contract topping 90 million. I don't think the Red Sox will spend that kind of money even if Imai turns into a top 3 MLB pitcher. He sounds more like a Yankees acquisition. I think least likely would be 25 year old slugger Murakami. He's young enough to demand a high salary and has a high power ceiling but he's somewhat risky because of his high strikeout rate. How will he fare against even tougher MLB pitching? Article on top 3 Japanese free agents coming to MLB: Breaking down the top Japanese free agents coming to MLB - ESPN

Well I just read a rumor that the Arizona Diamondbacks are in on Bregman. Article: Diamondbacks’ perfect contract offer to steal Alex Bregman from Red Sox in free agency Diamondbacks could offer him a contract in the range of 5 years/166 million dollars. If this happens it would mean the Red Sox got outbid on yet another free agent slugger target. I'm pretty scared this is exactly what will happen. The Red Sox are hemming and hawing and meanwhile all the good free agents will come off the market. They will then predictably respond by signing an injury prone player to a short term deal and the guy will miss the first year of his contract on IR so the Red Sox insurance will end up paying almost 80% of the guy's salary. On the books the contract exists but in the real world the Sox will only pay the player real money after he gets healthy. Is this the worst offseason the Red Sox have ever had? Can anyone think of an even more underwhelming offseason? Aren't we heading BACKWARDS now in terms of fielding a competitive roster?

Ragans when healthy was missing bats with his pitches. 14.3 strikeouts per 9 last season. He was injured and only played for 13 starts so it's a small sample size. But if he's fully recovered he would be a very interesting addition as a potential top 3 pitcher. So of course this deal won't be happen.

Injury prone player. Our offer will probably be a shorter term deal with an opt out clause. Seems to be right in the Red Sox wheelhouse. Spend a little bit now, then let the player walk for bigger money elsewhere if he proves to be good and worthy of a better contract.

Let's review the positive from last season. The Crotchett deal had some risks but as soon as he came to camp it became evident he was the real deal. Then we extended him to protect our trade investment. That's one big point for Breslow. However this offseason has been horribly uninspiring. After losing Devers and Bregman we've done nothing to recoup a talented power bat to replace them. I'm not hanging my hopes on a broken down Casas to rebound. We might need to trade 1 of Abreu or Duran just to open up playing time in the outfield. But that's going to mean more loss of power. We still don't have a for sure #2 SP behind Crochett. We're hoping a 36 year old Sonny Gray can find the fountain of youth or that Oviedo can make the leap from a #5 SP to a #3 SP when he only pitched 40 innings last season. We missed out on Pete Alonso to an in division rival in the Orioles and his annual pay is slightly less than what Devers was making. What's the plan here? We know it's not Full Throttle. That was a lie. Converting Campbell to 1B? Feels dubious since he was a career 2B and his major league career he has hit for an underwhelming .660 OPS albeit in a small sample size. In Pawtucket his OPS was .799 against weaker minor league pitching. As of today, this team feels half cooked and it wouldn't surprise me with this current roster if we fail to match our .500 record of last season and miss out on the playoffs. Henry wants us to become the Tampa Rays but it's just not working. It's just way harder to attract free agents to play in a cold weather city like Boston and we don't have the no income tax advantage of the Florida club. The Red Sox can't lowball free agents and expect to sign them. The Red Sox have been penny-wise and pound foolish for years now. We overpay for injured reclamation projects because news flash insurance pays 70-80% of the salary when they end up on IR. They only end up playing for us for half the duration of their contracts if at all. Selling off Mookie Betts feels like the second coming of the Curse of Babe Ruth. Until Henry sells off this team it feels like we are doomed to mediocrity.

You can bang the drum about defense all you want. If you can't score enough runs you don't win ballgames. And 1st base is the easily the LEAST important defensive position on the field. The Red Sox lost not one but two power bats in Devers and Bregman. They are going to struggle to score this year if they don't find a comparable replacement in the lineup.

It sounds like an excuse not to spend money to me. They had no problem paying Bregman 40m per year when they were desperate and he turned 31 at the time of the deal. Alonso is a year younger than Bregman then. There's always going to be an excuse. And if a player hits free agency entering their prime they are going to be making Guerrero or Soto money instead. And we KNOW the Red Sox aren't willing to spend that kind of money. Again they unloaded 70m annual dollars worth of salary and they still have not replaced with any comparable talent. Looks like their plan is to spend as little as possible and hopefully limp into the playoffs somehow. As long as they can milk the fans for money they don't really care about winning more than the minimum needed to keep the stadium full. Call me cynical but it feels that way these days.

They are waiting for Bregman's salary demands to go down. And I doubt that will happen. He turned down 40m per year so that he could get a long term deal. He probably wants at least 5 years. Schwarber and Alonso set the market. 5/150 to 5/155 is probably the range of money he wants.

Red Sox again allowed themselves to get outbid for a premium free agent. This is not an accident, it's a pattern. We recently shed Bregman's 40 million dollar salary and Devers 31 million dollar salary. That's 71 million dollars off the books. If we don't replace those lost players with comparable talent that just shows you the tightwad budget orders are still in place. Alonso earned a 155/5 year contract from the Orioles. 31 million per year was too rich for the Red Sox to afford? Surely not. Sounds like they lowballed Alonso hoping to score a bargain deal but why would he take a lesser deal to play for a team that barely made the playoffs last year and got bounced out in the first round? I just don't see the plan here for the Red Sox.

So I just read a few articles this morning talking about how the Red Sox are discussing a trade for star shortstop Corey Seager. Rangers look to be cutting payroll and his 31m dollar salary would replace Bregman/Devers. Seager has not played full seasons the past 3 years due to some niggling injuries. However when he played he put up some big numbers. For his career he has averaged .289 BA, .362 OBP, .509 SLG, and 137 OPS+. Would you want the Red Sox to make a splash for Seager and how much are you willing to give? The Rangers will probably ask for a huge package for arguably their best player.

Hey if it takes 4/125 to sign Alonso, let's just get it done. We've got a gaping hole in our lineup because we lost BOTH Devers and Bregman. Bregman was getting paid 40m per year, so it feels like replacing him with Alonso at 31 per year is a relative bargain. Yes we commit more years but we gave 3/120 to Bregman. It's not that big a stretch in total dollars and Alonso is a couple years younger than Bregman. We should still be mostly in Alonso's prime window for a 4 year deal.

Bregman opted out for a reason. He wants a big contract. The Red Sox might not be in a position to give it to him. He essentially turned down 40m per season. He's probably looking for a long term deal. I don't feel like you should give long term deals to 32 year old players even if they are pretty darn good. So right now chances of Bregman returning to Boston feel pretty low. If there's a bidding war on his services I don't see how we get involved and apparently the Tigers and the Cubs are keen for his signature.

25m is a lot for a 1B who lacks power. Now if he was playing second base you could live with his inability to drive the ball deep. But if he's a subpar defender you don't want him at 2nd. I think it's a pass on Arraez. The Red Sox need to maximize the effect of dollars spent in free agency. I don't think we can afford to sign him. I'd rather pay 30m for a solid power hitting 1B who can make a difference in the lineup. I'm not counting on Casas to rebound at all. His injury history is way too sketchy.

Nice hire for pitching coach. But when will we get an assistant GM to help plan player acquisitions?

Grissom was a disappointment. We didn't get much out of the Chris Sale trade did we? It seems we often get fleeced when giving away our veteran players. At least the guy they got back in return, Jackson, has power potential. But guess what he's left handed and an outfielder and we currently have a logjam in the outfield. He will be blocked from progression even if he tears it up for the PawSox unless we end up trading one or more of Abreu/Duran.

To me Oviedo looks like a bullpen arm. The last time he took the mound and pitched in a large volume as a SP was in 2023 when he pitched 177 innings and his overall pitching suffered for it. He had his lowest career ERA+ at 104 and his WHIP ballooned to 1.373. In 2025 his numbers "improved" but he only had 9 starts and 40 IP. That's only 4.44 IP per start and is a poor sample size. I dunno if he continues to struggle with walks as a starter he might need to be moved back to the bullpen. Who knows, the guy is still only 25. If he can stay healthy and get better maybe he gives us an option as a 4-5 guy but he might be best limited to the pen.

I didn't realize we were operating without a GM. It's a wonder deals get done. Guess Breslow has been handling it by himself somehow. As for Skubal he would definitely be a 1 year rental with no guarantee to resign him because of his agent history. He would go to the highest bidder the next year. I love the talent but I don't like giving up a lot of assets in a trade unless he agrees to negotiate a long term deal as condition of the trade. But that's likely not happening.

From what I can tell he is mostly a 2nd baseman. Early in his career he had a short stint at SS but made way too many errors which is why I believe he has stuck to 2nd base ever since. He has been deployed as an emergency CF but through his long career has only played 3B three times according to MLB reference. It really depends on the price tag because Marte is already turning 32 this season. You don't want to give up too much of the future for him. And don't we have a promising young 2B prospect already who would get blocked by him? From what I've read they would want Connelly Early for him. Is that too high a price to pay? Marte will be set to make 16m dollars in 2026 if salary is a concern.

Why would they buy him out for 1.5m and then offer 22m? I think he's just gone. Giolito spent all of 2024 on IR doing nothing. Has a decent 2025, and then jets for free agency to get bigger dollars. Red Sox at least have shed a bunch of payroll. But will they actually spend that saved money on a player that will help them win more next season?

I'm so tired of injury prone players. No thanks. Especially not for that much player capital. If we make a big trade for a pitcher I'd rather go for a player like Tarik Skubal who has been relatively available for most of his MLB career. 190+ IP each of the past 2 seasons.

The Red Sox success with Japanese players has been very hit and miss. Daisuke Matsuzaka and Yoshida turned out as well below average MLB players. Sadly for every time we missed on a Japanese player there are an equal number of nice success stories whom we passed on. So I don't even know if they will dip their toe back in that market.

Yes. It feels like the Red Sox need a little more help to get over the hump and into the playoffs this year. What moves Breslow makes remains to be seen though. I keep reading rumors online about Duran being the center of trade talks. One such rumor would have Duran going to the Phillies in exchange for Abel and other pieces. I'm not sure if this is a good enough return but it does feel like we might need more pitching help in the starting rotation.

Meh. Moving is stressful but these ballplayers have millions and millions of dollars to smooth over that move process. I've moved multiple times in my life and never had the money to pay professional movers or have a nice mansion waiting for me to get into at the end of the move. I think the fan attachment of losing a favorite player is more what moves sentiment. As a professional athlete, you already know this is part of the deal, in return you get MILLIONS of dollars to soften landing in a new area if you get traded.