This discussion started in last night's game thread but while I go to the game threads as long as there are posts to read there, I really don't know what everybody else does.
Looking at the numbers for April and May, while it looks like we are leaving a ton of guys on base and that it is the LOB numbers that are at the center of our run scoring problem, LOB is actually deceiving.
We had 188 LOB for April while scoring 135 runs in 26 games. At the half way mark of May we have 98 LOB but have only scored 47 runs. So while our LOB rate is only slightly higher in May we are scoring far fewer runs. At this pace we will only score 94 runs for the month. Runs scored has tumbled off a cliff but LOB is only slightly higher. We will leave 12 more runners on base for a whole month at this pace but will end up short a whooping 41 runs for a month.
So 29 of those 41 runs (41-12) are locked up in run scoring opportunities that we are not creating this month because we are putting fewer guys out there on the bass paths. Hence it is not really LOB that is the problem for this offense.
Where are all those other runs? They are not in HR's. We are actually hitting HR's at a slightly better pace in May than in April. We had 26 total HR's in April. We have 16 HR's so far in May. We are hitting more 1 run HR's in May than we did in April. 17 out of the 26 April HR's were of the 1 run variety. 11 out of the 16 May HR's have been 1 run HR's at the half way mark. So the missing runs are not in HR's either. Although a clue to the problem is in the number of 1 run HR's we are hitting in May as compared to April.
We look at the LOB number as the cause of our run scoring problem. But, if LOB is about the same, and our HR rate is actually higher then we are simply not putting runners out there on the base paths at the same rate in May that we were in April.
As for what happens to us as fans, it is only human nature. When you are desperate for runs, you really miss every runner that gets on that does not score. But as you can see from the numbers, the number of runners we are putting out there in the first place is the bigger problem by far. Actually in the interest of accuracy, I should say it is by far the bigger difference from April's success to May's lack of success. If you think about it, these numbers fall more in line with some of the comments we have made about the offensive approach changing. The fact that we are hitting 1 run HR's at a higher rate and putting fewer runners out there on the base paths to begin with are numbers that substantiate that concern. We gotta' go back to what we were doing in April. We are not doing it now.