iortiz

I see. BTW what is your opinion about this... Supposing that JH won't overpass the luxury tax cap. Would you trade Ells? or how should we cover the #4 SP?

BTW does anybody know D-K's status? Can he pitch in 2012?

well, maybe I would change Kalish too. who would you bring as DH?

Imagine Beckett Lester Hudson Buch Aceves Crawford Peddy Gonzo Beltran Ortiz Youk Scutaro Kalish Salty How does it Sound?

BTW we have to give up something but they too, that is for sure!

Our Ells is kind of untouchable as well, isn't he? untouchable for untouchable, how does it sound?, to me?, fair! EDIT: In the end, they need bats and we need pitching...

mmm... they were just an example but just as SF's case, Atlanta is another team who needs badly elite bats, why not try to trade Ells for Jurrjens or Hudson; they are plenty of pitching. They have 4 elite pitchers Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy; plus, They have Mike Minor (4.14 ERA, 82 IP) who showed very interesting things and is only 23.

when you put "+" you mean prospects?, Elsbury + Prospects for Floyd (+ 4 ERA) and Quentin (.252/.346/.836).? I think that Kalish or even Reddick can achieve Quentin's numbers... I'm not sure man, yes, I don't see Ells putting 2011 numbers again but I also see him putting something around (.300/.340/.800)... As I said, I only would trade an elite every day player for an elite SP and straight up like Cain or Felix, no prospects no nothing... but I got you. Anyway, gonna be complicated, you bet.

missed the DH. But still the question is: How much money will be available in order to cover with quality/solid each needed position?, that is my concern.

After reading carefuly jung's posts, I have only one thing to say, Goddammit Theo Epstain, we are damn clogged in our 2012 books. I'm starting to think that we won't overpass the 2012 threshold. This 2012 gonna be tough. I hate to say it, but I simply do not see how we can set up WS contender team next year if we do not overspent the luxury cap. Since Wilson and Buehrle sound more like a dream or a good wish, I don't expect a solid 2012 rotation. Our hopes will rest on Becket, Lester and Buch and hope that they perform solid and do not get an injury or s*** the bed... And whoever the 4th and 5th SPs are, I see a huge risk if we don't bring at least a guy named Buehrle or Wilson, but again, it sounds more like a good wish after reading Jung's posts. Plus who knows how Youk, Crawford and Salty will perform... Call me pessimist, but I see a lot red flags. BTW We also need at least a RF, Closer, DH, BP arms, pitching depth. Complicated. Cherington, you better be creative, dude.

Let me understand this, You mean that they gonna pay him in 2012 13 Million Dollars even if he doesn't play?

As I said, our No. 1 priority should be signing the SP. Hope that Cherington has this as no 1 priority as well. BTW via FA.

Well, in the end, it is just an exercise that will deliver a subjective result but I'm just trying to put some aspects in order to predict what could likely happen. I hope you can help me. 1. What is your call about Boston's 2012 luxury tax? Do you think that they overpass it or not? 2. On the other hand, if they decide to eat Jenks, D-K, and Lackey contracts (30 M/2012, yes, unlikely), this could be another via in order to have room and sign the SP and our other needs and do not go over the luxury cap, right? 3.- What would be the money-balance between eating Jenks and D-K contracts and paying the 2012 luxry tax if they finish with a 200 M payroll? 16 vs 22, right?

Both are good options to me. Like SP said, our No. 1 priority MUST be signing the 4th SP and Cherignton should focus all his energies in that and avoid that somebody else eats his lunch in that matter.

Well said. Not a manager and not an OF but a solid and healthy SP.

Ok, here the first answer according to BBR 1.- Adrian Gonzalez 5 yrs/$15M (07-11),7 yrs/$154M (12-18) 2.- Carl Crawford 7 yrs/$142M (11-17) 3.- John Lackey 5 yrs/$82.5M (10-14) & 15 vesting option 4.-Josh Beckett 4 yrs/$68M (11-14) 5.- Daisuke Matsuzaka 6 yrs/$52M (07-12) 6.- Kevin Youkilis 4 yrs/$41.13M (09-12) & 13 team option 7.- Dustin Pedroia 6 yrs/$40.5M (09-14) & 15 team option 8.- Clay Buchholz 5 yrs/$30.5M (11-15) & 16-17 team option 9.- Jon Lester 5 yrs/$30M (09-13) & 14 team option 10.- Marco Scutaro 3 yrs/$17M (10-12) 11.- Jose Iglesias 4 yrs/$14.24M (10-13) 12.- Bobby Jenks 2 yrs/$12M (11-12) 13.- Jacoby Ellsbury ARB-2,3 (12,13) FA (14) 14.- Junichi Tazawa Pre AB-2 (12) ARB (13-16) 15.- Hideki Okajima ARB (12,13) FA (14) 16.- Matt Albers ARB (12,13) FA (14) 17.- Jarrod Saltalamacchia ARB (12,13) FA (14) 18.- Alfredo Aceves ARB (12-14) FA (15) 19.- Mike Aviles ARB (12-14) FA (15) 20.- Daniel Bard ARB (12-15) FA (16) 21.- Darnell McDonald PreARB (12) ARB (13-15) FA (16) 22.- Jed Lowrie ARB (12-14) FA (15) 23.- Franklin Morales ARB (12-14) FA (15) 24.- Felix Doubront PreARB (12,14) ARB (15-17) FA(18) Signed Players With Guaranteed Contracts (does not include players with options) 12 Dollars Committed Value of Guaranteed Contracts (no options are exercised and includes buyouts) $126.7M Arb Eligible Number of arbitration eligible players (1st-2nd-3rd-4th, "Arb" players = 3rds) 6-3-1-0 Arb Costs Rough estimated value of all arbitration cases (uses 3-year averages for 1st yr, 2nd,..) $31.5M Other Players Additional Players Needed to Fill 25-man (no options exercised) 3 Other Costs Estimate of Remaining Players Costs (based on 1-year avg of all pre-arb players) $2.17M Payroll (options) Est. Total Payroll w/ Options (Guaranteed + Options + Arb + Other) $160.4M To be continued...

sorry, but I don't see where I am not objective. what is your point?

Player!

I thought it was implicit. Yes, add that too. It doesn't change my argument. How many series have we won vs. TB the last 5 years?