utlimately, we can't. we don't know what these players are going to do from year to year, especially pitchers. there's all kinds of advanced metrics out there but most of them are works in progress that people continually find flaws with and adjust
in many ways, lackey does remind me of beckett in 2006. he came into the year with the largest knock on him being his ability to stay healthy, and to his credit he's going to turn in a 200+ ip year. i don't expect lackey to be the same pitcher he was in the al west, but i think he's capable of a high 200 ip and a high 3's era