Palodios
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Everything posted by Palodios
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When was the last time we saw so many big hitters in on the same player? Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, Giants all in. For any other player, I wouldn't want anything to do with that kind of bidding war.
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I say this time and time again, but why on earth does everyone underrate an outfielder with 25 HR power, and a glove that gets nominated for both fielding bible and gold glove awards? Porcello has a career 4.30 ERA, is a low strikeout contact pitcher who has only hit 200 IP once. The Red Sox may need to throw in a prospect to make up for the potential end of year qualifying offer, but besides that, this is a mostly fair deal. Cespedes is Ellsbury all over again... Talksox didn't think he was worth an ace pitcher for a trade, but then he gets a 150 million dollar contract.
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The Dodgers are in on Lester. Well, f***.
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One of these twitter-reporters is reporting Lester to Cubs, as of 20 minutes ago. None of the big names have confirmed his reports. That seems like a long time for no one to know anything.
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Stats don't show poor batting stances either, but does that mean we should ignore batting average? We've been spoiled with guys like Pedroia, Beltre, Iglesias and Alex Gonzalez over the years.
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Both Pablo and Xander are fine in range according to UZR. Everyone here just prefers the eye-test.
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Hmm, I just looked it up, and from April-September, the weather is pretty much identical. The difference is October-March, where the weather is about 5-10 degrees colder. Their winters suck, but I doubt he'll be around much then.
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Iwakuma is fair value. They might have to replace him with a free agent veteran, but it sounds like they have money to burn, and the outfielder market is a lot thinner right now.
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I am not sure if you know what the words "outright horrible", "immobile" and "outright bad". Pablo and Xander are average defenders, and we have no idea how Hanley is going to fare in one of the smallest left fields in baseball.
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I can't imagine Lester would choose Chicago. The weather sucks, the team hasn't proven itself yet, and won't until Lester is later in his contract. He probably prefers Farrell over Maddon, and probably doesn't even have much of a relationship with Theo/Ben. Unless he's soured over Boston because they traded so many players including himself, I just don't see any reason to go to Chicago besides more money.
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Supposedly the Red Sox offered him 145 million a few days ago. The whole situation was poorly done by the Red Sox FO, but that offer is near market price. If that's not enough, the Sox might as well offer the extra year to Scherzer for 170-180.
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Leake for Craig would be awesome. Take 8 million off the luxury cap, get a solid #3 pitcher, and still have Cespedes as a potential trade chip, or power bat at the bottom of the lineup. I doubt it'll happen, but who knows.
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The Red Sox aren't touching Colon, and Gee/Niese are not worth Cespedes. If anyone, it will be Degrom -- who very clearly will regress -- but could be a solid, affordable starter.
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Mr 14 reporting some heat between the Red Sox and the Mets on Cespedes. It seems strange, the Mets are trying to get rid of their veteran, expensive pitching, whereas the Red Sox would be more interest in their younger, cheaper pitching. Couldn't see it being Harvey or Wheeler.
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I've heard reports saying that the Phillies are asking for too much, so the Red Sox backed off. However, the problem with payroll isn't paying a starter 25 million, it is paying two starters 25 million.
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I definitely forgot a few -- but I have absolutely no idea what Samardzija is going to cost.
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My assumption has been that the Tigers will re-sign one of Scherzer or Price, but even they have no idea which.
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57 million for a guy who hit 40 HR last year? I know he's getting up there in years, but that's not terrible. They won't be penalized if he gets caught for PEDs, all that money goes right back to them.
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All the reports make me think something like this: Hamels costs a top prospect -- Betts, Bogaerts, Owens or Swihart, plus one or two guys from the second tier. Cueto costs two or three second tier guys like Devers/Barnes/Ranaudo/Eduardo. Cespedes could potentially replace one of them. Price costs one player who will impact the majors immediately, like Betts, Bogaerts. It could also be a player like Cespedes or Castillo, but with a second tier prospect included. Zimmerman will cost something similar to Cueto or Price. Fister/Leake/Latos/Porcello will cost something like a second tier prospect + a high ceiling throw-in, or Cespedes + a high ceiling throw-in. Ben is waiting to get one of Price/Cueto/Zimmerman/Hamels for Cespedes + a second tier prospect. It might cost more, but there are enough sellers out there that he is bound to find a deal he likes.
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He hasn't been to New York yet. I know he's just screwing with us to bump up the price, but he's probably going to go there this week.
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From everything I hear, Philly is looking for franchise changing talent, and expects the other team to take on his full salary. I don't think any deal with Hamels is going to get done, by any team.
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Maybe not, but Lackey has a lot going for him that Cueto doesn't. He is 10 million cheaper in 2015. He came with an extra half year of control. Lackey also has playoff experience and success, whereas Cueto is 0-2 in the postseason. Cueto is a big injury risk after pitching far too many innings this year. He pitched 243 IP after only breaking 200 one other time in his career.... I'm starting to convince myself that the Red Sox shouldn't make this trade. I also don't believe that Lackey "got the Red Sox a major league starter", because there was a big salary dump involved in the trade.
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They are second tier prospects -- players who will probably make it to the majors eventually, but probably not as stars. No one is going to give up a first tier prospect for one year of anyone. Look at Price, Lester, Lackey. None of those guys pulled in elite prospects. Samardzija cost an Addison Russell, but the Athletics get an extra year, and pulled in a midrotation starter with him. There has been a shift that has happened in the last one or two years on how teams value their prospects. It seems like the Phillies have been trying to get franchise changing prospects for Cliff Lee and Hamels for a while, and no one has been biting.
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Cespedes had a 3.4 WAR, and Cueto had a 4.1 WAR last year. The difference isn't that far off, and pitchers don't cost as much as they used to. The package would probably start with Cespedes, include a top pitching prospect like Webster/Barnes/Ranaudo, and maybe include someone like a Bradley/WMB/Lavarnway type. No team is giving a better package than that for a rental.
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From a business standpoint, there isn't any harm in finishing last, as long as you sell enough tickets in the beginning of the year when the team looks promising, and you save money from selling off high salary players midseason. That's the beauty of selling tickets before the games are played. With all the recent championships, fans have built enough faith in the team that they are going to buy tickets anyway. Winning consistently is a great business model, but unfortunately most teams haven't figured it quite out yet, including this one.
