Dice-k hasn't pitched a full season since 2008. Call it a coincidence, but look at the pitch counts of the games. Every time he has seen a big bump in pitch count, he's pitched poorly the following game. His first game he fell apart at the end of his outing, around 85 plus pitches (he only pitched 80 pitch simulations in ST). His third game, he pitched well, at 106 pitches-- the next game he gave up 7 ER to the yankees. The no hit bid, his pitch count jumped up to 112, and the following game he had no control and admitted to being sore. Now that his arm is used to the strain, he's been a very good #3 pitcher.
I know there are other factors, but this tells me that losing some spring training, and early parts of the season have thrown off his conditioning by a lot. Right now, his arm is getting used to pitching 110 pitches per game. Every time he's been physically ready to pitch (2007, 2008, and the end of 2009) he's been solid.