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Palodios

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Everything posted by Palodios

  1. Palodios
    The Red Sox tend to float around the luxury cap though. They bend along with it, but never break it. The luxury tax in 2005 was 128, this year it is 189. 16 million against the cap then is worth 24.3 million in spending power now.
  2. Palodios
    And whoever gets Ellsbury will overpay for him too.
  3. Palodios
    The presumed difference in financial risk needs to realize that 2005 was nearly decade ago. The luxury tax has increased by roughly 50% since then, so 16 million a year is the same as a 24 million cap hit nowadays. You're also looking at years 32-36 of one player, and 30-36 of another. Adjusted for the growth of baseball and inflation, you're really only paying more for ages 30 and 31. Then there is the actual production. Ellsbury is a significantly better player when on the field. Damon's best two seasons produced a 4.5 and a 4.3 fWAR, whereas Ellsbury produced a 9.1 and 5.8 fWar.
  4. Palodios
    No argument here. For some reason I thought Ellsbury was much older than he really is, but in fact, he was 29 years old as recently as a month or two ago.
  5. Palodios
    I do see his point though. Would this team rather have a LF/DH at ages 37, 38 and 39 or a CF for ages 30-35 ? One of the comparisons I keep seeing is Johnny Damon. When he went to free agency, he was two years older than Ellsbury is. Even on a 6 year deal, they would only have Ellsbury till he's 35 years old. Edit -- technically 36 and two weeks. But he'll have just turned 36 when the contract is at its end.
  6. Palodios
    With Derek Jeter along with one of the best defensive shortstops in the game in Brendan Ryan, they may not be playing Peralta at SS most of the time. He played the majority of 2009/2010 at 3B, and could probably learn 2B if Cano leaves.
  7. Palodios
    Football, definitely. Compare the decisions a baseball coach makes versus a football coach. It isn't even close.
  8. Palodios
    Utility infielders tend to be some of the last pieces to fall. Punto is the rare exception, because he's a Rockstar Utility Infielder -- one of those players so good that the Dodgers took in Crawford's big salary just to get Punto on their bench.
  9. Palodios
    It all comes down to the One-Dumb-Owner theory. The question is -- is anyone seriously dumb enough to pay 150 million for Crawford part 2?
  10. Palodios
    Has anyone really been all that interested in Ellsbury so far? It seems like Boras has his mouthpieces out there saying that teams are interested, and those teams explicitly go out of their way to say no, they aren't. He did the same thing with Edwin Jackson -- teams were pretty clear that they weren't interested and Boras kept lying out of his ass.
  11. Palodios
    Maybe they know better about his health than other teams. Remember, the guy did have a 325/.394/.540/.935 line only a year ago. One year of that at catcher is practically worth 26 million. This means Ruiz will get huge money though.
  12. Palodios
    Grandy will be this year's Victorino -- a guy who gets a midrange contract who very well might deserve a top contract. The draft pick hurts, but maybe they go the route of snagging the 3 QO draft picks, and then signing a few midrange QO players ie Kendry Morales/Kuroda. He has only had contact injuries, and will likely not have too many lasting effects on his production. He plays a key defensive position -- but poorly enough that will hurt his market for teams with bigger parks. He has also publicly stated he wants to play for a winner. He has solid speed, and 30+ HR power at Fenway -- good enough that he could spell the team at DH in later years. The reports I have heard are estimating around 3/45.
  13. Palodios
    I was wondering if this thread was going to pop-up, or if we were just going to use the roster projections thread all offseason. So many things that can be done to make this team better. My favorite targets so far -- Ruiz, Napoli, Hart, Mujica, Granderson.
  14. Palodios
    I always found it extremely confusing that the Red Sox weren't able to trade for a solid starter using Ellsbury as a chip, but somehow he was worth a 150 million. How can a guy be worth insane money, but doesn't have insane trade value?
  15. Palodios
    Navarro couldn't hurt. He isn't a top defender, but his glove is still good enough to offset the loss of Salty's bat. If he can help the Sox save money for other positions, he seems worth picking up.
  16. Palodios
    I keep forgetting that almost all of the free agent firstbasemen are right handed -- making a Mike Carp platoon a bit more palatable. Netting 4 first round draft picks and signing Corey Hart would be a very interesting move. He won't cost a pick, and next winter he'll probably end up being QO-material as well. Worst case scenario, he splits time with Carp in a platoon situation. That career line of .300/.370/.526/.896 against lefties is nice, but his potential to be a righthanded bat with 30 HR and 100 RBI behind Ortiz is moreso.
  17. Palodios
    Lester in pinstripes ? Yeesh Jacko that is just plain mean. It makes more sense than I am willing to admit though... His playoff success and al east success would make him a juicy target for them. I see him being open to a weaver contract- team friendly but still sizeable. I don't think Ben will let him go for nothing though- trade or sign are the possibilities for him.
  18. Palodios
    I'm all in favor of electronic strike zones. Who does real parity hurt? Besides the umpire union ofcourse...
  19. Palodios
    I don't understand what Morse would give you that someone like Baker or Konerko wouldn't, although Konerko might be a long shot as a platoon option. Baker has a .875 OPS against lefties over his career (1.079 last year in small samples) and is a much better defender. And if you want a speedy outfielder with no bat, why not just keep Quinton Berry in the majors? RD's defense has been awful lately as well.
  20. Palodios
    Ben's approach is the same as it was last year. He has his nose in every trade and every player within reason, but rarely gets serious unless he sees a good deal. He spent plenty of money last year, but he mostly went bargain-hunting. The concern I have is that Napoli is pretty crucial to this team, and so far they reportedly haven't broken 1 year yet. I guess they could go with a platoon of Carp/Baker or Carp/Konerko, but why not splurge on the middle of the order bat that makes sense for every reason?
  21. Palodios
    Shut your filthy mouth. I don't think Ben is going to spend big money on a closer, especially a big name closer. I'd love to see Mujica's 9.00 K/BB next to Taz and Koji, and he'd probably be 3-5 million dollars cheaper per year, but the money probably isn't there. Replacing Napoli with Morse would be a real hit. Even if he reverses the Safeco Curse, the Sox would be losing a lot. Very solid defense to very bad defense. You'd be watching pitch per plate appearance drop from 4.59 to 3.82 at that position. Plus, there's that big drop in OBP. His career .819 OPS against lefties isn't really much better than Carp's .792, which makes him seem like a strange platoon choice. 2/10 on Rajai Davis would hurt. At that price, why not go for Chris Young?
  22. Palodios
    Minus the "wake-up Ben" part (Don't you dare get me started fred ) I agree completely. Is it really the end of the world to offer a strong bat, playoff hero, and top-tier defenseman two years with an option based on games played? His hips are bad, and he may break down, but his bat will be good enough at DH if Papi gets hurt/ retires. He played a career high in games last year, and came out healthier than he started the season. I also want to reiterate the fact that he has missed 0 games in 2012 and 0 games in 2013 for the hip condition.
  23. Palodios
    Assumptions make fools out of all of us. Buchholz always is hurt. He went on the DL for a hangnail. Not only are you depending on him being healthy, you're depending on the rest of the rotation to be healthy, and in shape. I bet Lackey gains back atleast 10 pounds, and don't get me started on Dubront. Murphey's law is a thing.
  24. Palodios
    By moving Dempster, not only do you remove one capable #4/5 starter from your team, you are also hurting the bullpen by taking Workman out of it. Find me a player coming off 9 innings of 0 ERA pitching in the postseason, and I will find you a contract that exceeds 7 million dollars.
  25. Palodios
    Atleast they've been mostly tempered. I haven't heard one single "How about Dempster, Kalish and Alex Wilson for Mike Trout" yet.
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