Palodios

Anyone else think we are overvaluing the farm system right now? I'll give it to Xander, who could very well be the top prospect in the majors right now. Bradley might be a solid centerfielder to replace Ellsbury too, but that will be one of the early challenges of next year's team. Sure Lavarnway has a .379 OBP in AAA, but does he really have a good enough glove to catch full time?

3 rookies and Middlebrooks. Yikes.

Hanigan hit .198 last year, and only has one year remaining on his contract. It might take a mid-tier guy like a Sean Coyle to get him, but the names you mentioned are far more valuable at this point.

Report coming through that Blue Jays are putting together a package for Samardzija. Will he be enough to push them over the edge next year, or are they just putting salt on their farm system at this point?

Is this for real? It just surprises me that he would leak information to you that isn't being leaked to the press. That being said, Hannigan seems to make sense in a lot of ways.

I didn't mean it like that I included Granderson and Kuroda too -- neither of which are locks to leave either.

They shed about 85 million in contracts between Cano, Granderson, Rivera, Pettite, Kuroda, Hughes, Youkilis and a few others. That won't factor in arbitration raises, and other places on their payroll that will increase.

Yeah, it couldn't hurt. People tend to be skeptical of that kind of thing though... players really do go where the money is.

No problem -- just realize that getting a rise out of Fred isn't much of a challenge. It is when you make the rest of us do a double-take that it gets a rise out of me too

Two seasons. The two most recent seasons.

Seriously bro, stop trolling Napoli to Rockies.

If you have to look back three years to find a great year, spending 90 million on the player seems silly. As a catcher who will be blocked at 1B and DH by Tex and Arod, he's not going to suddenly get healthier.

90 million for a guy who averaged 110 games , a 2.2 fWar, and a .740 OPS over the last two years on a team that has no room for him at DH, or 1B? I smell desperation.

You view the contract as unsuccessful so far, and with your heavy emphasis on a trend of decline, that seems to be your position.

We can't make a judgement on 2015 until 2015 is over. You're assuming it'll suck. I'm not.

As I mentioned in the previous post, his 2012 season essentially cost the Red Sox league minimum, and by opting for TJS mid-2011, it gave the Red Sox adequate time to replace his production. Elbow surgery was something that the Red Sox had known about and prepared for when signing him to that contract. If the Red Sox get 4 good years out of a 5 year contract, that's stellar.

Lackey has pitched 3 years, and has one s*****, one good, and one excellent season. I argue that Lackey's contract should no longer considered bad. In 2013, fangraphs say that Lackey was worth 15.9 million. I would argue that this season was worth significantly more than that.

In 2010, I always argued strongly that Lackey's campaign was extremely underrated. The ERA was a bit high at 4.40, but 215 IP and 21 QS was extremely valuable, especially in a year when the team's 7th inning reliever was Scott Atchison, and the offseason was the best in the league and good enough to get him some support. Fangraphs says he was worth 4 wins and 16 million. Maybe not quite, but I'd argue he gets a pass for that year --especially considering the uneven first/second half year splits 2011 was an epic disaster for everyone, Lackey included. 2012 was a lost year for Lackey because of TJS. But it unlocked the low cost 6th year option, and the team knew about the TJS early enough in 2011 that they could have replaced his production in the offseason. Instead they went with Aaron Cook and Padilla. The Red Sox built in flexibility to the contract because they were concerned about his elbow. I just don't think you can say the contract is bad for something that the team's medical team knew about, and factored into their long term plans as a contingency. In 2013, he was the most reliable arm in a rotation that eventually won a World Series. In April, 2.61 ERA, May 3.06, June 3.03, July, 3.67, August, 3.09, September 4.98, October 2.77. The only time he pitched poorly was when it didn't matter.

Lefties hit .338/.462/.393/.812 against him. Righties hit .229/.307/.247/.539 against him. ROOGY?

Kemp's defense brings him down I think. Kemp's top 5 seasons in fWar-- 8.4, 5.0, 3.2, 3.1, 1.6 Ellsbury's top 5 seasons in fWar -- 9.1, 5.8, 4.1, 2.1, 1.4

Does he have options? Seems like a good 5th/6th inning RHP option if a few guys get hurt.

The Sox would pay 6/120 for a often-injured center fielder, with one elite season, and a handful of very good ones? Why not just re-sign Ellsbury and save the prospects?

What are the odds that Bradley succeeds immediately, and Victorino stays healthy? Shane gets banged up a lot, and Bradley is still a rookie. You need someone to backup RF, and I don't think Nava, Gomes or Carp have even remotely enough range.

There was the big risk to see how he adjusted to the major leagues. It is the same thing as signing a top pitcher from Oakland or the NL West, except to a much bigger extreme. Dice-k was a big failure, and they paid a boatload of cash for Darvish. They must have scouted him well, and fortunately for Darvish , his father didn't let him participate in the crazy high school tournaments in Japan that blow out young arms early.

Not good, but not bad either. He has a career 13.7 UZR/150 in LF, and -2.5 in RF. Best case scenario, he plays RF until Bradley is ready, then takes over LF where he would probably be above average defensively.