SoxSport

Trading Ellsbury right now would dump CF into the lap of a 37 year old player. That's Cameron's best position, but I don't think they want to do that right now. They probably see him as a platoon player, and none of their CF prospects are ready yet. Besides, Ellsbury still has some upside if he works on his deficiencies.

Hernandez and Lee just make every win more crucial next year for the wild card--not just September.

For the record, Olney later corrected the salary back to 5/82.5 on twitter. It's in MLBTradeRumors.com.

Texas is in the process of changing ownership, and that could be holding up the deal. Though they've had other signings recently. Lowell isn't a bad guy to have around as insurance if they don't sign Beltre. I understand he looked better at 3B in September, and he can DH. Sometimes mobility injuries take more than a season to get back to normal. Nature doesn't know the length of a baseball season.

The time to trade Ellsbury is in a couple of years closer to contract time. His agent is Boras and he tends to overrate his clients--to put it mildly. They'll know better at that time if Ellsbury is worth re-signing, and their CF prospect?, Westmoreland, might be ready at that time if they haven't traded him. They certainly aren't going to trade both.

Forget about Cabrera. He doesn't fit their new "defense" thinking and is way too expensive. I think they'll go after AdGon using Buchholz as the bait. Not Beckett, as some as suggested. SD isn't going to trade a cheap star for an expensive star. They don't want big salaries. What about Ellsbury as bait? I doubt it--even though his agent is Boras (that might be enough of a reason to trade him). Ellsbury has a lot of speed and he can hit some. Walks, no. Defense good enough. But the speed fits in a lineup scoring fewer runs. Who knows. Maybe Tito will learn how to play smallball. The rumors have them seeking another RHH outfielder. I think that signals the OF will be heavily platooned. What they do at the infield corners is the remaining question. Is it Beltre at 3B? Or Adgon at 1B? or Nick Johnson? The answer probably hinges on price/availability.

They can go in a number of directions at 1B/3B now, and there are pros/cons with each. I've read that Lowell's defense at 3B was better in September, so maybe he can last another year-though that thumb injury could be a problem. He can still hit--for sure, and could also be a platoon at DH if Ortiz struggles again. Then you have Beltre, and the question is the inflated Boras money there--along with his low OBP. These options would keep Youks at 1B--probably his best defensive position. Beltre would give them their best defensive infield--and they seem to be moving towards defense and pitching with Lackey and Cameron. Then you have options where Youks moves to 3B--signing a Johnson or trading for AdGon to play 1B. AdGon gives them a cleanup hitter (though Youks has shown he can also do the job) at low salary, but costs them Buchholz and prospects. That takes some off their pitching, but Buchholz' is still not proven as a #1-3 starter. Not yet. So which of these looks most attractive to Epstein?

The pieces are falling in place now that Bay's agent killed any chances of Bay staying in Boston. Cameron is probably slotted in LF. Maybe he can help Ellsbury learn how to play CF better. AdGon may be the final piece--for Buchholz and one of those minor league studs mentioned in rumors. Or they can keep Buchholz and sign Johnson to play 1B? Or sign Beltre to play 3B? Just like Fantasy Baseball.

I think now there's a better than 50/50 chance an AdGon for Buchholz deal goes through. It's probably the catalyst for the Lackey signing. The braintrust probably figured that was the best way to go value-wise. I said that in the Bay thread yesterday--that the next move might be Lackey if they couldn't sign Bay. And then maybe AdGon. I didn't expect it so quickly, however. Of course, they could always go with Kotchman or Johnson at 1B and Youks at 3B. That would allow them to retain Buchholz. They might also sign Beltre for 3B, but that requires dealing with Boras and that means overpaying. LF looks like an Uggla or a Cameron at this point, platooning with Hermida. I wonder if Henry is just taking a year off from having to deal with Boras. They can do it now.

Let's see. What is Seattle giving up for Lee? They have to give somebody up to Toronto.

Lackey deal done? Wow, they just swooped in and overpaid for Lackey, if it's 5/85. He must have jumped at it.

On Youks vs Tex, the biggest differences are that Tex can also hit LHd, which is vital to the Yankees in their park; but Youks is a much better value at half Tex's salary, and he bats RHd, which is desirable for Fenway. His power numbers have grown since they extended him, and they got a terrific bargain. I also believe the shorter length of Youks' contract vs Tex is an advantage for the Red Sox.

As I said in the Lackey thread, I think if they sign Lackey they will go in a different direction from Bay-Holliday, and trade Buchholz for AdGon. Then they will move Youks to 3B and leave Boras holding the bag, as he did last year with them on Teixeira.

This may be a signal the Sox are going away from big bucks in LF and putting it in pitching--which is what it's all about anyways. But it also may indicate Buchholz is ticketed to SD for AdGon. You have to figure SD can get their best deal from Boston--after all, they know the farm system very well. Could be the poor Mets are left holding the bag with Bay. Sorry, Jason. I see Halladay looks like he is ticketed for the Phillies--for Happ or Hamels? That's also good news for the Sox. Watch Holliday wind up with the Boras-Yankees. Halliday? Holliday? ....Holliday? Halliday?...Aw let's call the whole thing off.

If they bust on Bay and Holliday, they could pull the trigger on AdGon. But if Lackey is gone, who is Buchholz' replacement? There is life after Bay and Holliday.

The usual media rush to judgement says Bay is gone from Boston. I wouldn't say so just yet. Lots of drama creation going on here by his agent. He's trying to max out his commission with the good graces of Bay, who also stands to gain--provided he signs with a team he really wants to play for. Sure Bay can make a few mil more or add a year, but once he signs, he is stuck with that club for the length of the contract. Top dollar FAs don't have much mobility. Contrary to most, I don't see much difference between Bay and Holliday. They are both primarily offensive players. Bay has proven he can hit AL pitching more than Holliday has. Holliday has Coors-inflated numbers and thrived hitting with Pujols last year. He is a year or so younger--I don't know if that is significant in terms of contract length. Both will sign their next contract for grossly inflated numbers approaching Yankee dollars given to Teixeira. Bay is hoping Boras will drive his value up, and Boras is hoping Bay will drive Holliday's value up.. I think both agents are playing a game here trying to use each other to drive the price up. And it will work. The trouble is the Red Sox don't play that game, so my guess is look for a platoon in LF next year in Boston. Maybe Gomes or Cameron with Hermida. Maybe a Beltre at 3B--or a trade of Buchholz et al for AdGon, which will trigger a signing of Lackey? Not signing Bay or Holliday would open up a lot of scenarios. I've always favored pitching over hitting, anyways, with a playoff format. That's really how the Yankees won it last year. The Red Sox have to move fast here beyond the Bay-Holliday game before their options dry up.

The Red Sox have to be more flexible if they are going to sign ANY top FA. Baseball is a game of wasted $millions. Better to waste $millions on a Bay than a Lugo. They have to understand their fans pay top dollar for tickets and they expect a winner. No easy task in a division with the free-spending Yankees. You can't be stingy.

Holliday is going to be a tough sign for the Cardinals, because Pujols is "only" getting $14 mil, and that is throwaway money for Boras. Paying Boras (oops, meant to say Holliday--Freudian slip) more than Pujols may be a bit of a problem in St Louis. Gammons had some interesting things to say in that WEEI interview: trading for Halliday doesn't make sense for the Red Sox (more sense for the Yankees--I would add--they are in a win now mode again); Bay not wanting SF, Beltre not wanting SAFECO. I think the Sox have a real shot at Beltre, and I think he might be good for Fenway. They may have to soften their hard stand on 4 years for Beltre or Bay, however. I would do at least an option for a 5th year on both. Bay could be the DH in a few years, anyways. You have to be flexible if you want to bag a top FA these days. And flexibility means overpaying at whatever it takes to bag the player you want--the NY way.

Looks like Bay's agent's strategy is to drive the price up, and maybe come back to Boston with a final number? Trouble is, the Red Sox are not a money machine like the Yankees. They walk away if they don't like the numbers. I don't think his agent can hunt that dog for too long.

With the Red Sox in the mix and Boras the agent, I expect Beltre to get $11-12 mil. Epstein is on a defense kick in the infield, so I expect they will pay a premium for Beltre. And he is sure to hit better in Fenway. His down numbers last year were shoulder-related, anyways. Youks to 3B I see as a last resort. I do not see AdGon in the picture at all. He isn't on the market and would cost Buchholz, and then they are back to square one needing a Lackey. Lusting after cheap young superstars who are not on the market is not something GMs should waste their time on, in my view. It's like trying to buy a house that isn't for sale. The cost tends to be prohibitive. The time to buy something is when somebody wants to get rid of it. Even when you might not need it for awhile. What is being overlooked is the defensive situation at catcher. Last year, teams stole bases at will against the Red Sox. Probably due to a combination of factors. That will have to change this year. Whether VMart does it, or the pitchers do--the wholesale stealing has to be reduced. That's part of the infield defense, too.

The Red Sox did pretty well last year considering their #3 starter was sacrificed in Japan for that World tournament. They should be better this year, provided they get Bay or Holliday and Ortiz doesn't slip further.

I'd like to see the Phillies get Halladay. I wonder if the Jays would prefer Happ over Hamels. Hamels has a bigger salary, and didn't earn it last year. If Hamels had pitched in the playoffs like the year before, the Phillies might have beaten the Yankees--though Manual was foolish to pitch Pedro in Yankee Stadium when he had a lefty available in Happ. I don't see the Red Sox in the picture at all for Halladay. Epstein had trouble trading Moss and Hansen for Bay! He will never part with Buchholz. You just hope the Jays will have the good sense to deal him out of the Division. If the Yankees get him, they might win 120 games.

I read Ramirez had wrist problems last year at AAA, and that probably affected his hitting there. He has hit well in Venezuela so he is probably healthy again. They are checking out his wrists now, one of the things holding up the deal. I noticed the media has forgotten about the Scutaro signing (Yahoo sports; Trade Rumors), which occurred just before the winter meetings, in their listing of winter meeting deals. Scutaro was a major FA signing. The Red Sox seem more intent in doing their diligence rather than making big media splashes like the NY teams. Does Bay really want to play for the Mets? We'll see.