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  1. That was nice of the Rangers to tell the Red Sox one of their players needed surgery. The question is why the Red Sox didn't know. I'm guessing the trade goes through during ST after the thumb has healed. Funny how two Boston teams have had trouble with thumbs in the off-season. I don't know how this affects their plans at 3B, but I think there's a chance Lowell might be serviceable at 3B if he can maintain or improve his September form. He can still hit and is a warrior. Maybe they can squeeze another year out of him. At $12 mil, it's worth a serious try. Hurt feelings? Not at $12 mil. Besides, nobody seemed to know about the injury.
  2. Rolen just extended for 3 yrs at $8 mil per (MLBTradeRumors.com). Beltre isn't worth much more than that, and I doubt he'll get more than 9 or 10 mil. I think they can afford another 8-10 mil without paying the luxury tax--if they can do the Lowell deal. They can always backload Beckett and VMart extensions.
  3. What's SF's team salary? They were +13 or so on the win side last year. Probably more wins per dollar paid than the Red Sox or Yankees.
  4. I think Konerko is too expensive and too old for the Red Sox' tastes. He's close to becoming a DH. Hanley R. is farther off the radar screen than AdGon. I doubt Bard is going anywhere. Beltre looks like the preference to me, if the price is right. Consistent with what they have done so far. And Theo doesn't have to give up any of his valued young talent. They are probably waiting for Lowell before they do anything. I think they will use AdGon as leverage with Boras.
  5. I still think their best bet is Beltre, if they can wait out Boras and get the price down. It stays with their defense-pitching theme and keeps their young talent intact. I don't think any of those hitters mentioned are attainable--except for Fielder, and he won't last to his middle 30s at his weight--just like his dad. Actually, the easiest guy to get right now might be Bay. He might take that 4/60 originally offered rather than get stuck with the Mets for effectively less. Trying to match the Yankees is futile. They have too much cable money. The playing field is not level in Baseball. But things happen from year to year, injuries, etc., and that's why the Yankees don't win every year--as they should with their $$ advantage.
  6. I doubt their strategy is to wait and see on AdGon--I don't think they want to go into the season with a reduction of offense and 3B unresolved. My back of the envelope analysis shows their best bet is to sign Beltre. As long as they can get him for $10 mil or less and he gets back to 07-08 hitting form after his shoulder injury last year. He's young and should bounce back OK. They will have to look at his shoulder. They will also have to play a waiting game with Boras, to get the price down. They are fortunate their competition doesn't involve the NY teams. That increases the chance Boras will have to come down to reality in price. I view the Lackey/Cameron signings as a brilliant move by Epstein to upgrade pitching and defense--and give them an advantage in pitching. I think he recognizes that he can't get AdGon without negating some of that--whether he does a trade now or during the season. I think they will resolve the 3B issue soon, and a lot of the talk is just posturing to keep their leverage.
  7. Epstein has to be careful he doesn't reach too high (AdGon) and come up with nothing. He doesn't want to box himself in paying too much for Gonzalez. And he doesn't want anybody else getting Beltre on the cheap. I doubt he sees Kotchman as a full-time solution at 1B. The power outage will negate the pitching advantage. The one thing he cannot do is deal both Ellsbury and Buchholz to SD. That negates a good deal of Gonzalez. In fact, I don't think they can afford to deal Ellsbury at all, with the current OF.
  8. I don't see Kotchman full-time at 1B. Not enough power to offset the power reduction in the OF. Beltre looks like the best option, provided they can sign him for $10 mil or less. He'll give them Lowell's HRs (last year doesn't count because of injuries), and VMart/Cameron offset Bay. He also fits their defensive plan, and that includes keeping their pitching advantage by not trading Buchholz. The other option, AdGon, gives them more HRs than last year, but they give up runs on pitching and defense (Youks Beltre looks like their target to me, but they may have to deceive a bit and get Boras down from his sky-high price.
  9. I said this somewhere, but it's Lowell's 17 HR at 3B that have to be made up. VMart and Cameron can make up Bay's 36. Can Beltre hit 17 HR? He should be good for 25 based on his 07 and 08 stats--if he's healthy. Beltre is a good sign for them if they can get him for 8-10 mil up to 4 years. Kotchman at 1B doesn't do it for me. 1B is a power position. He didn't hit a lick last year. It's AdGon or Beltre or bust, Theo. I'll take Beltre, and gamble he'll get back to his 08 stats or better at Fenway. Keep Ellsbury, Buchholz and the young talent. If they keep their talent and sign Beltre, they'll give the Yankees a run for their $200 million.
  10. Another big ticket will put them in the luxury tax, so I don't think it will happen. More likely would be a trade for AdGon or something else that doesn't cost big bucks. Branyon might be a possibility, but they seem to be committed to Kotchman because they like him defensively. He will have to hit better. I've heard the delay on Lowell might be the Sox buying time to sort out the 3B situation. If Mike is healthy, bringing him back in a multi-role might not be a bad option.
  11. another Freudian slip
  12. On the issue of replacing Bay's HRs, Cameron and VMart over a whole year will more than compensate. There is an issue of replacing Lowell's HRs (17) if he is traded.
  13. Since the Red Sox don't deal in fantasy money, I don't see another big ticket FA signing. Their next big ticket will be Beckett--hopefully. They are already planning that with their frontloading of Lackey's contract. I doubt they will even sign Papelbon--not for the money he will want. Bard will be the next closer in a year or two. I think they will go hard at AdGon because it makes the most sense. I don't think they can trade both Buchholz and Ellsbury for him. They have enough other talent to do the job with just Buchholz. They might get Beltre, but only at their price. Another RHd hitting platoon outfielder is also in the cards. As for Morneau, he is one of the Twins' franchise guys along with Mauer, and I don't think he's going anywhere. I do think Theo will continue to bug the Marlins about Hanley R.
  14. Forget about what Tito says to the media. He gives them a lot of pap. One of his qualities. Did I say pap? a freudian slip. or slap.
  15. Won't be Ellsbury. SD will never deal with Boras for an extension. Has to be Buchholz plus a pupu platter. Ellsbury defensive player of the year? I understand he doesn't have good UZR numbers. That stat tends to produce scattershot, anyways. His jump on the ball and arm are questionable, but he does the job in CF with his speed. They can't trade this guy, but Boras will be a bear to deal with in a couple of years.
  16. There's a chance Ortiz' problems relate to conditioning as well as injuries the past couple of years. Look at what happened to Dice-K, and he's a lot younger. The older you get, the harder you have to work to get into shape. Ortiz might surprise this year if he's worked hard enough in the winter.
  17. 3/39 for Beltre ain't gonna happen. Beltre will get 3- 4 years at 8-10 mil per. More than that and it won't be in Boston. Beltre isn't enough of a hitter to be a big ticket.
  18. Beckett is worth less than Halliday money. Discount the other two--inflated NY dollars. I would take Halliday over any of them.
  19. Trading Buchholz and Westmoreland for AdGon makes Beckett affordable. Maybe that's what the plan is.
  20. This is beginning to look like the case of the dog allowing the tail to wag the dog. The agent burned the bridge and eliminated what now looks like Bay's best option. It will be interesting to see who winds up with Bay after Holliday signs with St Louis--if the tail doesn't wag the dog, that is. Minaya may get stuck with Bay by default.
  21. On Beckett vs Lackey, I'm thinking the Sox may have made a statement to Beckett signing Lackey for 5/82.5. Maybe Beckett was asking for a Sabathia-type contract--which he will never get in Boston. I think the Halliday and Lackey signings may get him down to earth.The Yankees grossly overpaid for C.C., especially in contract length, but were desperate to get him. I wouldn't rule out some sort of deal involving Beckett, if they can't reach an agreement with him or his agent.
  22. Halliday is getting 20 over 3 or 4 years in Philly. Lackey gets 16.5. My guess is Beckett belongs somewhere in between. He hasn't been all that great in the playoffs the last two years. Hurt two years ago. And he isn't as consistent as Halliday. He will certainly want more than Lackey--partly to stroke his ego. It's tough to compare salaries in inflated Yankee dollars. They live in a different salary universe from the rest of baseball. But don't tell that to Boras or the other agents.
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